bluewave Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 The warmth in Europe has been even more impressive than here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: The warmth in Europe has been even more impressive than here. Thank you for the sobering update. A portion of my ancestral Sicily was below normal for the period. I wonder if the mountains experienced snow during that time frame. As always ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 2 hours ago, rclab said: Thank you for the sobering update. A portion of my ancestral Sicily was below normal for the period. I wonder if the mountains experienced snow during that time frame. As always ... Record storms around the Mediterranean. https://www.surfertoday.com/environment/storm-gloria-generates-the-biggest-wave-ever-recorded-in-the-mediterranean https://www.timesofisrael.com/torrential-rains-in-northern-israel-break-51-year-record/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 No winter anywhere this year-even parts of Russia have been warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 I escaped to Quebec where there's mountains of snow, but still relatively warm temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 34 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: No winter anywhere this year-even parts of Russia have been warm Alaska...Fairbanks. -13° temp departure this month... -21.2 mean temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, doncat said: Alaska...Fairbanks. -13° temp departure this month... -21.2 mean temp. The kiss of death for winter elsewhere in North America-Alaskan Cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: No winter anywhere this year-even parts of Russia have been warm I wouldnt say no winter lol, its just been mild after a cold November. We are actually around avg snowfall to date in Detroit (21.9" so far), just cant sustain the snowpack. These mild winters are a boon for the Lake superior snowbelts of the UP, absolute mountains of snow. I would suggest a trip if you can, you will definitely get a fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Steve D doesn’t think this storm is coming. Basically said the gfs caved to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 6 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: It's really fascinating how every pattern we have seen have been non conducive for snowfall in our region. We cannot catch a break. Also really fascinating how the Pacific Jet has essentially raged like an insane wind tunnel constantly which helps destroy any chances we have due to warm air, progressive patterns, no blocking and horrible storm tracks through the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 40 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The kiss of death for winter elsewhere in North America-Alaskan Cold. Yup, essentially when Alaska is an icebox in the winter (more so than usual) it’s typically mild and boring here. We want the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 hour ago, doncat said: Alaska...Fairbanks. -13° temp departure this month... -21.2 mean temp. One of the strongest January +EPO patterns on record will do it for them. Like a La Niña without actually having one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: One of the strongest January +EPO patterns on record will do it for them. Like a La Niña without actually having one. that is the literal inverse of what we need for a good winter month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Bet it will be tough to change this pattern as well....if so, expect a blowtorch in Feb just like Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: Bet it will be tough to change this pattern as well....if so, expect a blowtorch in Feb just like Jan I wonder if it will just continue with the chilly dull blah punctuated by drenching rain. At this point a torch would be a change of pace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, forkyfork said: that is the literal inverse of what we need for a good winter month Very big surprise for the Alaskan forecasters to get such a strong Niña-like pattern without actually having one. Must be the combination of the record MJO, record WPAC warm pool, and PV alignment. http://ak-wx.blogspot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, weatherpruf said: I wonder if it will just continue with the chilly dull blah punctuated by drenching rain. At this point a torch would be a change of pace. yeah last 2 days have been awful-cloudy and 40...stale used up airmass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Look how close the 500 mb pattern was to MJO 4-5 and La Niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Dry also this month... The 1.86" of precip. here will be the 3rd lowest past 40 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 hour ago, doncat said: Dry also this month... The 1.86" of precip. here will be the 3rd lowest past 40 years. I wonder if this is a portent for a very dry very hot summer with a strong SE Ridge. I thought that was going to wait until 2021 when we reach the peak of the 11 year cycle, but it may start a year early and we could have two back to back very hot and very dry summers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 3 days of mid 50s next week?? Let’s stick a fork in this winter already enough with this garbage Just enough already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Slightly cooler air has now moved into the region. Nevertheless, temperatures will generally run somewhat above normal through the remainder of January and into the start of February. Little or no snow is likely in New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC into the start of February. Colder air could return late in the first week in February or just afterward. Arctic air is unlikely. Moreover, the cold could be transient. As long as the Arctic Oscillation remains strongly positive, the risk of widespread significant snow (6" or greater) from Washington, DC to Boston remains low. Since 1950, there were 11 storms that brought 6" or more snow to 2 or more of the following cities: Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Just 1 such storm occurred when the AO was +1.000 or above. Therefore, through most of the remainder of January, the greatest risk of moderate or significant snowfall will likely exist for central and upstate New York and central and northern New England. Boston would have a higher probability of receiving a moderate or significant snowfall than Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. During the weekend, a storm moving offshore will likely intensify rapidly as it moves into the waters off New England. The area with the highest chance of receiving at least a light snowfall will be eastern New England. There remains some uncertainty about the storm's track. Based on the latest guidance, the likely seasonal snowfall distribution through January 31, will be < 20" at Boston; < 6" at New York City; < 3" at Philadelphia; and, < 2" at Washington, DC. There were 5 prior cases that met the above criteria for seasonal snowfall through January 31: 1895-96, 1918-19, 1931-32, 1949-50, and 1972-73. The single case with a colder than normal January (1895-96) saw 43.0" snow in the February-April period in New York City. All of the remaining four cases, all of which had a warmer than normal January, had less than 12.0" (mean: 4.6"; median 2.8"). Should blocking largely fail to develop in February, the risk of the very low snowfall for the remainder of winter 2019-20 would increase. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around January 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. For February 1981-2019, the following monthly temperature averages were recorded for cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly averaged 0.00°C to +0.75°C: ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO+: NYC: 36.9°; Philadelphia: 37.6° (n=101 dates); EPO+ subset: NYC: 40.5°; Philadelphia: 40.8° (n=57 dates) ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO-: NYC: 34.7°; Philadelphia: 34.9° (n=97 dates) ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO+: NYC: 35.7°; Philadelphia: 36.6° (n=82 dates); EPO+ subset: NYC: 41.2°; Philadelphia: 42.0° (n=18 dates) ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO-: NYC: 30.9°; Philadelphia: 31.6° (n=58 dates) February 1981-2019: NYC: 35.8°; Philadelphia: 36.0° The SOI was +8.72 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.127. Upper stratospheric warming will commence near the beginning of February and continue through February 5. Strong Wave 2 activity will occur during the first week of February driving the warming of the upper stratosphere. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the first days of February, but the strong Wave 2 activity has increased the risk of warming that could propagate downward. On January 27, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.568 (RMM). The January 26-adjusted amplitude was 0.448. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied near 100% probability of a warmer than normal January. The monthly mean temperature could finish near 39.0° in New York City. That would surpass the 38.6° monthly temperature from 1949 to make 2020 the 9th warmest January on record. The combination of ENSO in combination with an AO+/EPO+ base state suggests that February will wind up warmer than normal in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Lots of low clouds last few days keeping temps up at night...Another crud day with a 44/35 temp split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 7 minutes ago, doncat said: Lots of low clouds last few days keeping temps up at night...Another crud day with a 44/35 temp split. This month and probably Feb are extended Marches essentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 The last 3 days of January are averaging 35degs., or 3degs. AN. Month to date is +7.2[39.6]. January should end at +6.8[39.2]. The first 13 days of February are averaging(0Z, GFS)36degs., or 3degs. AN. 2" of Snow this weekend. EURO is just ugly and the CMC has snow where the GFS has T in the 50's. The (06Z GFS) is averaging 35degs., or 2degs. AN with no snow until the 12th. 34* here at 6am. 33* by 8am. 40* by 2pm. 42* was high at 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Most stations around the region will finish with the top 5 warmest January minimum temperatures on record. Time Series Summary for New York-Central Park Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1937 25 0 2 1990 24 0 - 1932 24 0 3 2002 21 0 - 1993 21 0 - 1953 21 0 4 2020 20 3 - 1949 20 0 Time Series Summary for Islip Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1990 21 0 2 1993 18 0 3 2020 16 3 4 2002 15 0 - 1998 15 0 Time Series Summary for Albany Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1932 16 0 2 1990 12 0 3 1937 11 0 4 1953 10 0 - 1913 10 0 5 2020 7 3 Time Series Summary for Binghamton Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2002 11 0 2 1990 10 0 - 1960 10 0 3 1953 9 0 4 2001 7 0 5 1993 6 0 6 2020 5 3 - 1980 5 0 Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2002 22 0 2 1932 18 0 3 1953 15 0 - 1937 15 0 4 2020 14 3 - 1990 14 0 - 1949 14 0 Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1937 25 0 2 1953 23 0 - 1932 23 0 3 1993 22 0 - 1913 22 0 4 2006 20 0 - 2002 20 0 - 1990 20 0 - 1950 20 0 5 2020 19 3 Time Series Summary for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1949 22 0 2 1953 21 0 3 2020 17 3 - 1960 17 0 - 1950 17 0 Time Series Summary for STATE COLLEGE, PA - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2006 18 0 2 1990 17 0 3 1953 16 0 - 1932 16 0 4 1950 15 0 - 1937 15 1 5 2020 13 3 Time Series Summary for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1937 29 0 2 1990 26 0 3 2006 25 0 - 1953 25 0 - 1932 25 0 4 1913 24 0 5 2020 23 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 12 hours ago, jfklganyc said: 3 days of mid 50s next week?? Let’s stick a fork in this winter already enough with this garbage Just enough already I am also frustrated with this garbage winter thus far. But ..not willing to throw white flag up until March 15 ..after that date ..yes you can get snow but for coasties and city unless its a night time event or a huge storm bringing in its own cold air gonna be a sloppy mess of a storm. Sooo lets wait and see what happens.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 31F. Another AN morning as the endless streak continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 15 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Bet it will be tough to change this pattern as well....if so, expect a blowtorch in Feb just like Jan This will be the winter where the pattern change never came although we still have some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: This will be the winter where the pattern change never came although we still have some time. We have had it before. Just stinks this will hopefully be my last in this area. We will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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