• Member Statistics

    15,757
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Chicago12
    Newest Member
    Chicago12
    Joined
jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

Recommended Posts

MJO Forecast trend on the GEFS...

db92coY.gif

 

Quality post from @donsutherland1 (recommended reading) - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52870-january-2020-general-discussions-observations-thread/?do=findComment&comment=5418232

 

"Key Points (from Don):

1. A preponderance of data is pointing to the return of winter in the East.

2. January could close with a sustained cold pattern that could continue into at least part of February."

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Models keep pushing back cold and winter storms. IT IS A TRAP! Do not fall for it.

Not really, cold still comes in around the 20th...

 

Pattern change first, THEN we worry about the h5 and the temp profiles

 

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

 

 

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Just looked at 12z gfs, now I know why it’s dead in here! Nothing but rain through hour 384! So much for pattern change

You have to smell the rain to get the graupel. Don’t worry, 18z will reel us back in

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Just looked at 12z gfs, now I know why it’s dead in here! Nothing but rain through hour 384! So much for pattern change

18Z will be better:D

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

You have to smell the rain to get the graupel. Don’t worry, 18z will reel us back in

Well JB threw out winter of 77/78 and 14/15 in analogs to the start of winter and transition now and the Australian heat and fires! So what could go wrong?

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, griteater said:

Best run I've seen of the GEFS in the extended.  Core of the cold air is in the lower 48

VoJwSxG.png

SAu67rb.png

That's beautiful right there.  GEFS has officially joined the party.  Bonus: cold and wet.  

Hopefully the EPS didn't decide to quit overnight and take its ball home. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Well JB threw out winter of 77/78 and 14/15 in analogs to the start of winter and transition now and the Australian heat and fires! So what could go wrong?

He cancelled winter a couple of weeks ago, right?  How are the GEPS looking?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

He cancelled winter a couple of weeks ago, right?  How are the GEPS looking?

Someone posted his comments somewhere, he’s all aboard the arctic express coming up, forget how wrong he’s been all of fall and first of winter! Got a little Mississippi leg hound in em, if he ever starts, it’s just better to let him finish!

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Someone posted his comments somewhere, he’s all aboard the arctic express coming up, forget how wrong he’s been all of fall and first of winter! Got a little Mississippi leg hound in em, if he ever starts, it’s just better to let him finish!

What was his forecast for the first have of winter?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey SE folks, first post for me in your forum this year. I've been wanting to stop by and let you know that I like what I'm seeing for your area but honestly I haven't liked anything I've seen since Dec 1st... until now...

I know you guys have covered the reshuffle in the Pac etc. There are a lot of clues saying the -EPO is going to build and stay. Weeklies and CFS agree that it will prob continue through all of Feb but that's way out there in time. At the very least a -EPO period seems to be locking in next week. We'll see how long it lasts. 

Not sure how a -EPO/+NAO works down in the SE but a blend of Jan 1994, JF2014, and Feb 2015 is a decent mix of recent similar periods to what I'm seeing now. CAD Ice/mixed events are the most likely but any well timed wave on a boundary can break the right way. 

GFS and EPS ops suddenly starting considering their options about flipping the AO and/or NAO negative by d10. Ens don't agree with that yet but it was either a total coincidence or a clue that maybe hope is not lost on getting some blocking going at some point before speedos and SPF30

As always, I'm rootin for you guys. Maybe we get to share in a rare SE/MA coastal that glides slowly out to sea off the coast of NJ. lol

  • Like 16
  • Thanks 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Hey SE folks, first post for me in your forum this year. I've been wanting to stop by and let you know that I like what I'm seeing for your area but honestly I haven't liked anything I've seen since Dec 1st... until now...

I know you guys have covered the reshuffle in the Pac etc. There are a lot of clues saying the -EPO is going to build and stay. Weeklies and CFS agree that it will prob continue through all of Feb but that's way out there in time. At the very least a -EPO period seems to be locking in next week. We'll see how long it lasts. 

Not sure how a -EPO/+NAO works down in the SE but a blend of Jan 1994, JF2014, and Feb 2015 is a decent mix of recent similar periods to what I'm seeing now. CAD Ice/mixed events are the most likely but any well timed wave on a boundary can break the right way. 

GFS and EPS ops suddenly starting considering their options about flipping the AO and/or NAO negative by d10. Ens don't agree with that yet but it was either a total coincidence or a clue that maybe hope is not lost on getting some blocking going at some point before speedos and SPF30

As always, I'm rootin for you guys. Maybe we get to share in a rare SE/MA coastal that glides slowly out to sea off the coast of NJ. lol

Thanks for stopping by Bob..enjoy your posts mucho!

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The OP Euro is still not bringing down the cold like the OP GFS, hug the EPS for now

Wait till you see the latest eps run. It continues to look better with each run!

  • Like 3
  • Weenie 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Wait till you see the latest eps run. It continues to look better with each run!

Just took a peek at it myself and wow... Not only the epo ridge flipping the pattern but beginning to hint at blocking to. All the while with still above average precip. The pessimist in me is trying hard to keep my hopes down but things are looking very exciting. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Anyone know if any GEFS and EPS members are showing snow during their runs?

GEFS mean. 1585494543_download(2).thumb.png.dd0fd6389a12e62b27ab3d244d6b0e22.png

All of this in the SE falls between the 20th and the 26th. EPS snowfall is still coming in so I haven't seen it yet but based on H5 I'd be surprised if there wasn't some. 

 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...