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Dr. Dews

January 2020 Discussion

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23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah...it's been impressive that we have maintained good snowfall totals since our last true -NAO winter in 2012-2013....though we got blasted in March 2018 with a huge NAO block too.

 

If we start getting some -NAO La Ninas again like we had a lot of in the 1960s, 1995-1996, 2000-2001, and 2010-2011....then look out.

It seems like while the winter -NAO has been very scarce in recent years, it has usually delivered very well whenever it happened. Maybe that’s what our new climate baseline favors, so I can only imagine how a winter dominated by the -NAO would turn out.

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40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro looks like an April look at 500mb next week. Deep winter continues. 

most of the lower 48 is above freezing at 850, at day 10, in January.....:cliff:

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1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

most of the lower 48 is above freezing at 850, at day 10, in January.....:cliff:

Well, I got 18 in last Saturday. Played quite well. I guess I can look forward to taking a couple strokes off my game during “winter” 19-20. Sweet.

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8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What happened to the 2015 like pattern...went poof?

Yes....trended into more of just a decent western ridge pattern with this relaxation that comes first in the D7-10 range....though we still may score a storm threat in there....remains to be seen. This is if we go on the EPS.

GEFS are still showing a really good pattern but the EPS has trended pretty hard the past two runs away from the EPO/PNA combo.

 

There's probably a lot of struggle with the strong wave in the tropic that is causing these swings.

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53 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I liked the look previous runs, but this run is ugly...bringing much lower heights into AK.

Hopefully that is just the OP being clownish beyond D6, but that would be pretty ugly.

But but I was promised a 1/20 pattern change with the MJO heading towards phase 8. 

I'm sure the runs with change but yeesh was this a winter cancel run. 

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14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What happened to the 2015 like pattern...went poof?

The odds of 2015 repeating are very low.  That was certainly an hisitoric stretch. I would have to take a look at the 2 volume set of Early American Winters to find comparable stretches of snow accumulation.  Certainly 1717 qualifies. 

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

But but I was promised a 1/20 pattern change with the MJO heading towards phase 8. 

I'm sure the runs with change but yeesh was this a winter cancel run. 

Sir we would like to help you but all complaints need to be filed with Mr Joe Bastardi. 

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I actually thought the end of today's EPS was an improvement on the 00z run.

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 to many you an tv weather people change every model run  . i see above normal snowfall between now into feb for i 95 and sne area with big storms too. the only weather people i like is jb and brad field and two others .

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I actually thought the end of today's EPS was an improvement on the 00z run.

Maybe it is.  I don't see it on TT or Pivotal yet.

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1 minute ago, blizzard24 said:

 to many you an tv weather people change every model run  . i see above normal snowfall between now into feb for i 95 and sne area with big storms too. the only weather people i like is jb and brad field and two others .

JB calls for a cold and snowy winter prior to every winter. A 3rd grader can do the same and be right as often as JB is.  And I am sure JB appreciates you having him on your "like" list.....

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23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes....trended into more of just a decent western ridge pattern with this relaxation that comes first in the D7-10 range....though we still may score a storm threat in there....remains to be seen. This is if we go on the EPS.

GEFS are still showing a really good pattern but the EPS has trended pretty hard the past two runs away from the EPO/PNA combo.

 

There's probably a lot of struggle with the strong wave in the tropic that is causing these swings.

The backing away from PNA doesn't suprise me.

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Maybe it is.  I don't see it on TT or Pivotal yet.

I think those only go out to 240 hours.

At any rate, there is all of the sudden a lot of volatility and my guess is the tropical PAC is giving guidance fits.

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36 minutes ago, Fozz said:

It seems like while the winter -NAO has been very scarce in recent years, it has usually delivered very well whenever it happened. Maybe that’s what our new climate baseline favors, so I can only imagine how a winter dominated by the -NAO would turn out.

I have read some research (unfortunately I don't have a link) theorizing that the best blocking occurs 1 to 2 years after the solar cycle minimum...for instance 09-10, and 10-11.  If that holds true, look out for the next two winters.

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2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I have read some research (unfortunately I don't have a link) theorizing that the best blocking occurs 1 to 2 years after the solar cycle minimum...for instance 09-10, and 10-11.  If that holds true, look out for the next two winters.

I've heard the same..makes sense...I mean, what, 7 consecutive positive NAO winters? The regression radicals can't have the weenie and eat it, too....NAO needs to regress, as well.

 

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I actually thought the end of today's EPS was an improvement on the 00z run.

I fully believe it’s just a transient shift Days 8-11 and it may not be as awful as the EPS if the GEFS or GEPS are even  half right 

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I fully believe it’s just a transient shift Days 8-11 and it may not be as awful as the EPS if the GEFS or GEPS are even  half right 

Very well could be....I actually didn't even really hate the D8-11 look....the OP was ugly, but if we are keeping a light gradient with a blocky looking Canada, then we cna score some storms in that look. The OP Euro was trying to put a gradient in Canada which would trend us more toward a true torch vs just merely above normal but still cold enough for storm chances.

 

And yeah, the GEPS/GEFS did look a lot better. So we'll see.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Very well could be....I actually didn't even really hate the D8-11 look....the OP was ugly, but if we are keeping a light gradient with a blocky looking Canada, then we cna score some storms in that look. The OP Euro was trying to put a gradient in Canada which would trend us more toward a true torch vs just merely above normal but still cold enough for storm chances.

 

And yeah, the GEPS/GEFS did look a lot better. So we'll see.

For the winter weather enthusiasts, it's frustrating, since it's like a broken record of Winter being perpetually 10 days away.  This weekends systems is OK, but then left to wait another week or more for the mere possibility of a storm.

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Scooter's not going to take the time to drive to the Tobin, he's just gonna detour to the Fore River Bridge, hit the up button, and drive off while it's in up position.

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Scooter's not going to take the time to drive to the Tobin, he's just gonna detour to the Fore River Bridge, hit the up button, and drive off while it's in up position.

It’s crazy to see him buying the op Euro

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We do this same rigmarole  every winter....."looks good in 10/15 days"....then Poof....it's gone as you get closer.  Great patterns aren't foreseeable beyond like day 7 at most, sorry.  They more often then not just pop up out of nowhere. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s crazy to see him buying the op Euro

It may be right.  Glad we have other activities in winter to occupy us when there is nothing to track.

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19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I've heard the same..makes sense...I mean, what, 7 consecutive positive NAO winters? The regression radicals can't have the weenie and eat it, too....NAO needs to regress, as well.

 

Well it does just not quite when we want it. Is November/March considered winter? Oh well hope everyone enjoys their March HECS this year.

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7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Scooter's not going to take the time to drive to the Tobin, he's just gonna detour to the Fore River Bridge, hit the up button, and drive off while it's in up position.

Nice new bridge. Visible from my hood. Tempting. 

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