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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

71 at mi casa up here along rt 2

I'm only mentioning because there contention among Mets and privy users over the veracity of Logan's readings...

See my explanation above. When we start tying or wanting records by a narrow margin, then it matters.

 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

71 at mi casa up here along rt 2

I'm only mentioning because there contention among Mets and privy users over the veracity of Logan's readings...

When it’s 34 and easily accumulating in moderate snow that’s a flag.  We’ve seen that recently at Logan.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ugh. They really gotta fix their siting issue and figure it out. 

First, it causes the warmest July on record last year when nobody else in SNE was even close...now it ties a monthly high (maybe surpasses it next hour). 

On any given day, 2-3F doesn't matter that much but today it will...difference between monthly record and not. 

There are lots of 71 70s though around Boston 

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Yeah.... I don't choose to take sides/ignite vitriol over Logan's readings, but today may be a bad day to strike up contention when it's the same f'n temperature like everywhere ;) Or close enough that an offshore component out of 70 F should conceptually do a 72 there..? Just wonderin'

It may be a situ where the error - if proven to exist beyond the local consensus' suspicion - tends to manifest in certain ranges and settings?  I know the FIT used to run suspicious DP numbers ...and I used rail on about it, but then there was a quiet fix installed and they been better since 2010 - not because of me...just saying... Sometimes things there have band widths of physical parametrics where the error occurs, and in other environmental conditions, they don't..

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8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

There are lots of 71 70s though around Boston 

West side esp. More 69-70 near Logan which supports the 2-3F bias. We've been over this a bunch of times before anyway  the empirical data is overwhelming...it's just a question of fixing the siting issue if it's not the ASOS itself.

 

IMG_4322.PNG

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110pm   looks like Logan shot up briefly to 73.4F.       Whether that is accurate I don't know but it will make headlines for the warmest temperature ever recorded over 153 years.  What a run.  70F yesterday, 64F for a low last night and 73F today.  Probably longest, warmest stretch for Boston?

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It's almost too much to expect the temperature will correct down to normalcy once the departure is this deep and lengthy...

This warmth is no spike... It's two days of it... with a blue flame night in between. That's more than southerly gale WCB type of arrangement. 

Anyway, the system on Thursday is still present on the Euro but it's too warm.  This isn't a cool week.  We're struggling with a statically locked 42 N, 850 mb 0C isotherm the whole way. 

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It's just feeding my hypothesis that we've already crossed(ing) a climate threshold ...just not one very well identified, because climate is still a learning curve everywhere and all dimensions, anyway.

But, it seems as years go by, we either have to have a -EPO preceding or in the temporal neighborhood, are we're too warm for Currier&Ives... like, period. 

Today is obviously a different thing altogether and I've spent time explaining it to a empty room already, so wont' bother. But... it's like it's getting increasingly more suspiciously coherent ( call it ..) that unless we're directly dumping cold into the 40th parallel, we're flopping over too warm for snow more readily/regularly. 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm selling the euro for Thursday. It is still an outlier. Admittedly stubborn though. 

I'm interested in how this thing does in that model.  There's some growing sort of ...aversion to the Euro call it ( heh ), and this scenario has sort of put it on a stage with lime light - with no peers to support it ( other than the NAVGEM ...uh...), it's making a spectacle out of that test.

 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's just feeding my hypothesis that we've already crossed(ing) a climate threshold ...just not one very well identified, because climate is still a learning curve everywhere and all dimensions, anyway.

But, it seems as years go by, we either have to have a -EPO preceding or in the temporal neighborhood, are we're too warm for Currier&Ives... like, period. 

Today is obviously a different thing altogether and I've spent time explaining it to a empty room already, so wont' bother. But... it's like it's getting increasingly more suspiciously coherent ( call it ..) that unless we're directly dumping cold into the 40th parallel, we're flopping over too warm for snow more readily/regularly. 

Tip....thanks for the the excellent explanations about how cc is expanding the Hadley Cells and making it harder to keep it cold enough to snow at our latitude.  I completely agree with everything that you have said.  It does seem as if people want to just live in the moment and ignore the bigger picture.  I guess it's a mental survival instinct lol.  Pretty scary big picture if you ask me.  

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4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Right down the valley.  Brattleboro also cooler than surrounding areas. 

It was crazy watching the temp drop everywhere last night except the summits. Mansfield and Lincoln Peak were still 50F when BTV was 31F and ZR.  Would’ve been a cool graphic to show a 3-D advection of the cold while the mountains stuck out like rocks above water.

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