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NYCSNOWMAN2020

WINTER 2019/2020 BANTER

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21 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Those summer tropical storms kill the fishing. I wish they would never happen. They don't even have to be that strong to throw up swells, which cause seasickness and for reasons I don't understand cause the fish to stop feeding, or move out to sea early. When we had a bay fishery it didn't matter but the bays are dead now.

the waters are more polluted now because of fertilizer and pesticide run off because of higher rainfall totals and the rise of red algae and lowering oxygen levels.

 

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On 2/5/2020 at 4:35 PM, SnoSki14 said:

Last few years we've had record warm Jan/Feb months but cold Nov & March. This is a repeating pattern. 

I'm on the cold/snowy March train. You'll start seeing it on the models by Feb 15-20 as wavelengths change due to seasonal effects.  

there's really no abnormally cold air anywhere.  I think we pull a perfect game/no hitter and go the way of the great snowless winters like 1972-73, 1997-98, 2001-02, etc.

Although 1997-98 did have one meaningless wet snowfall event on the first day of Spring.

 

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On 2/5/2020 at 4:38 PM, Brian5671 said:

Possible, however there's a lot less cold this year.   This has been an incredible torch

Correct, and Great Lakes ice coverage is only 5%..... lake water levels have been getting higher too.

 

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8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Correct, and Great Lakes ice coverage is only 5%..... lake water levels have been getting higher too.

 

The lake levels are high because of well above normal precip  last couple of years.... I remember not too many years prior, the levels were very low and there was concern about that.

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12 minutes ago, doncat said:

The lake levels are high because of well above normal precip  last couple of years.... I remember not too many years prior, the levels were very low and there was concern about that.

Right, I saw a graph showing a general rise of rainfall since 1975 and less evaporation occurring, it seems to be a trend.  I'm pretty sick of the rise in rainfall that's occurred here since about 2000.... like literally sick.  I have to take allergy medication now twice a week even during the winter (when it doesn't snow and it rains instead.)

 

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

there's really no abnormally cold air anywhere.  I think we pull a perfect game/no hitter and go the way of the great snowless winters like 1972-73, 1997-98, 2001-02, etc.

Although 1997-98 did have one meaningless wet snowfall event on the first day of Spring.

 

So far there's no signs of a major pattern change for March so you could be right. However models won't pick up on the seasonal changes until late Feb. 

If nothing changes by Feb 20 then this pattern will stick into March. There's a possibility that April turns out to be the cold month but by then it really doesn't matter.

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Upstate NY and NNE are going to cash in again. Imagine if we had blocking.  We would have been buried. 

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

and ice coverage in the Great Lakes is 5% and the lake waters are 3 ft above normal- actually they've been rising for a few years and people are having to move away from lakefront properties or raise them.  Everyone talks about sea level rise, well lake waters are rising too!

do you think we could be done early with the pollen problem this year?  I already see some budding occurring and my daffodils are coming out.

I read that the ground where the glacier was during the ice age is still rising up causing the lake waters on the south shores to rise while the north shores retreat...

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32 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

So far there's no signs of a major pattern change for March so you could be right. However models won't pick up on the seasonal changes until late Feb. 

If nothing changes by Feb 20 then this pattern will stick into March. There's a possibility that April turns out to be the cold month but by then it really doesn't matter.

a la 1989-90.

what a sucky winter that was- cold dry December, record warm Jan Feb Mar and an insignificant snowfall in early April lol.

 

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I miss seeing sidewalks and cars buried.

 

Hard to believe this actually happened at the coast as recently as a few winters ago, this winter it seems like we are in the tropics

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40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Screenshot_20200210-144642_Twitter.jpg

Honestly that doesn't seem that appealing to live in but I would like to visit a place like that just to see that kind of snow once in my lifetime.  

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Honestly that doesn't seem that appealing to live in but I would like to visit a place like that just to see that kind of snow once in my lifetime.  

the 30 incher with 100 mph winds in NFLD was amazing too, it looked like Sapporo, Japan there with 15 ft snow drifts creating snow tunnels that cars had to drive through

 

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I’m a snow weenie and I can’t wait for this to be over. Give me spring already. A nice mild and sunny spring. Unlikely though right? Lol

 

this is torture. Give me spring and then another winter to look forward to. Can’t have a third one like this right? 

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This will go down as one of the worst winters of my lifetime. Just endless rain and mild weather. I can’t get over the lack of cold weather. It has literally been March here for the last three months. It most definitely can’t get any worse IMBY next winter. So I guess there is that...

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22 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This will go down as one of the worst winters of my lifetime. Just endless rain and mild weather. I can’t get over the lack of cold weather. It has literally been March here for the last three months. It most definitely can’t get any worse IMBY next winter. So I guess there is that...

And somehow only 3" of precip has fallen since Jan 1st

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the last 25 years have seen great winters and horrible ones like this year,,,

since 1993-94  (26 years) the Number of times snowfall was

00-09.9".....3...97-98...01-02...11-12...

10-19.9".....6...94-95...96-97...98-99...99-00...06-07...07-08

20-29.9".....3...08-09...12-13...18-19...

30-39.9".....3...00-01..15-16...16-17...

40-49.9".....5...02-03...03-04...04-05...05-06...17-18...

50-59.9".....4...93-94...09-10...13-14...14-15...

60 plus".....2...95-96...10-11...

 

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4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

there's really no abnormally cold air anywhere.  I think we pull a perfect game/no hitter and go the way of the great snowless winters like 1972-73, 1997-98, 2001-02, etc.

Although 1997-98 did have one meaningless wet snowfall event on the first day of Spring.

 

And holy sht what a storm that was. 17" of tree snapping glue! It fell in just a few hours with insane winds and the temp dropped 30 degrees while it was happening. That was one of the most memorable and damaging storms of the last 25 years where I live.

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

And somehow only 3" of precip has fallen since Jan 1st

We should double that in the next few weeks...ugh 

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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

the last 25 years have seen great winters and horrible ones like this year,,,

since 1993-94  (26 years) the Number of times snowfall was

00-09.9".....3...97-98...01-02...11-12...

10-19.9".....6...94-95...96-97...98-99...99-00...06-07...07-08

20-29.9".....3...08-09...12-13...18-19...

30-39.9".....3...15-16...16-17...

40-49.9".....5...02-03...03-04...04-05...05-06...17-18...

50-59.9".....4...93-94...09-10...13-14...14-15...

60 plus".....2...95-96...10-11...

 

 

Utilizing NOAA data, I did a couple of quick calculations. NYC-Central Park's mean snowfall for 1990-2020 is 30.1", and their median snowfall is about 27". The median, as you know, is a very indicative number, as it represents the relative frequency of above versus below normal snowfall winters. So, the 27" is fairly good, given the proximity to the mean, suggesting that there's an almost equal split of snowier than normal versus less snow than normal winters in NYC (I would guess probably 45% snowier than normal / 55% less snow than normal). The farther south one heads, the worse the median. For example, Washington DC sees much more below normal snowfall winters than above normal, so their mean snowfall is arguably inflated by a relatively small number of major winters. Conversely, I would guess Boston's median is almost identical to their mean.

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

This will go down as one of the worst winters of my lifetime. Just endless rain and mild weather. I can’t get over the lack of cold weather. It has literally been March here for the last three months. It most definitely can’t get any worse IMBY next winter. So I guess there is that...

I agree with the 3 months of March comparison.

The rainy weather has really ramped up after a rather benign January, which just ups the dreariness of it all. 

Don't see the active pattern ending anytime soon.

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2 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

Utilizing NOAA data, I did a couple of quick calculations. NYC-Central Park's mean snowfall for 1990-2020 is 30.1", and their median snowfall is about 27". The median, as you know, is a very indicative number, as it represents the relative frequency of above versus below normal snowfall winters. So, the 27" is fairly good, given the proximity to the mean, suggesting that there's an almost equal split of snowier than normal versus less snow than normal winters in NYC (I would guess probably 45% snowier than normal / 55% less snow than normal). The farther south one heads, the worse the median. For example, Washington DC sees much more below normal snowfall winters than above normal, so their mean snowfall is arguably inflated by a relatively small number of major winters. Conversely, I would guess Boston's median is almost identical to their mean.

In the 151 years of record keeping at Central Park, the average snow fall is 28.8 inches per season and the median is 27.1 inches so very little variation in the two numbers. I've never run the numbers for Boston and WDC but I would agree with your guess. I would think Bostons mean and median like NYC's are within a few inches of each other.  In a place like Washington where the average snowfall is in the mid teens, a couple of 50 inch seasons will skew the average much more than a couple of 5 inch winters will.

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13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

This is disappointing. From having read his past tweets, it’s difficult to see any rational basis for the suspension.

I agree. They think that it was a mistake or some type of targeted troll activity. He has one of the best climatology related accounts on twitter.
 

https://weather.com/safety/winter/news/2020-01-30-cloudiest-stretch-january-midwest-chicago-minneapolis

Aren't Midwest Winters Always Cloudy?

In much of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and interior Northeast, an average January day is at least 70 percent cloud covered, according to an analysis from Alaska-based climatologist, Brian Brettschneider.

 

 

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12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

This is disappointing. From having read his past tweets, it’s difficult to see any rational basis for the suspension.

I agree.  He is absolutely not controversial from what I've seen.  He publishes incredibly insightful maps on a regular basis.  He has opinons for sure (who doesn't), and goes about defending them in quite the personable way that encourages discussion and debate. 'Happy warrior' is an apt description I'd say. 

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