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NYCSNOWMAN2020

WINTER 2019/2020 BANTER

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6 hours ago, jm1220 said:

A coworker offered his place up the next time there’s a big lake effect event or major nor’easter that’s a crappy rainstorm on the coast. I’ll definitely be taking him up on that at some point lol

I would too lol

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So when is the consensus opinion on when the pattern changes and when we have the next real "threat"? I just looked at the 00z GFS 850 Temp/Precip and it kinda looks like nothing "coastal" (to my amateur eyes) in the longer term until maybe around 1/23 except inland runners. And I didn't check the upper air patterns at all. Thoughts?

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5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Just in time for the 70 and sunny skies on Sunday ;-)

 

The snow’s gone and it’s been in the 40s with rain all day. Easy come easy go. 

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On 1/4/2020 at 2:45 PM, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I am hoping in my lifetime no month ever comes anywhere close to comparing to December 2015. 

I still have nightmares about that month. I never bothered to check, and I'm sure someone here can, but that had to be the greatest deviation above average for a month since they've been keeping records in NYC. I believe it ended up 13-14 degrees above normal at NYC stations.

Sorry to tell you, but we’re experiencing it right now

 

 This continued level of warmth for three weeks straight in January is simply unprecedented

We will get saved because the last week turns colder… But if this pattern that started on December 21 started a little later, We would’ve easily set the warmest January ever this month

This level of sustained warmth is simply unprecedented, the only thing close is December 2015

 

But if you stick around, you’re going to see this broken again in the next few years

 

Im becoming convinced that the warm winters with periods of cold are here to stay. 

 

No cold air from 1/1-1/19. 70 today and tomorrow

Simply amazing and historic

 

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1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

Sorry to tell you, but we’re experiencing it right now

 

 This continued level of warmth for three weeks straight in January is simply unprecedented

We will get saved because the last week turns colder… But if this pattern that started on December 21 started a little later, We would’ve easily set the warmest January ever this month

This level of sustained warmth is simply unprecedented, the only thing close is December 2015

 

But if you stick around, you’re going to see this broken again in the next few years

 

Im becoming convinced that the warm winters with periods of cold are here to stay. 

 

No cold air from 1/1-1/19. 70 today and tomorrow

Simply amazing and historic

 

To  a degree what you say is true, but this stretch from December 22nd to January 16th or so will still not approach what December 2015 was. You had a whole month that averaged 13-14 degrees above normal area wide, and broke the record average for the month by 7 degrees. As bad as this stretch has been it still will not be that, despite today and tomorrows record setting warmth.

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It was nice playing with the kids at the playground today. We were planning to go Ice Skating at Christopher Morley Park in Long Island. It's an outdoor skating rink but the rink looked like a pool. There was so much water due to the melted ice that they had to close it for today. 

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There are probably a few things that we can do to make this place run more smoothly. We should refrain from posting certain types of maps that have been proven to be very low skill.

Any snowfall maps beyond 120 hrs

10:1 snowfall maps in marginal conditions.

Any very long range OP runs such as the GFS from 240 to 384 hrs

Some helpful hints to improve the model discussions

When discussing a 6-10 day storm threat or pattern, try to rely more on ensemble means until we get closer to 120 hrs.

Remember that human nature likes to extrapolate the current conditions forward. This means in warm pattern we get a bunch of winter cancel posts that seem to derail the threads. The same thing happens in cold patterns when some posters claim that it won’t eventually get warm again. And if a warmer forecast is presented when it’s cold, don’t go after that poster for hating winter or having a warm bias.

Respect your fellow posters and never shut down  conversations that presents varying opinions about an upcoming forecast.

Following these guidelines will improve the long ranges forecasts and discussions.

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There are probably a few things that we can do to make this place run more smoothly. We should refrain from posting certain types of maps that have been proven to be very low skill.

Any snowfall maps beyond 120 hrs

10:1 snowfall maps in marginal conditions.

Any very long range OP runs such as the GFS from 240 to 384 hrs.

 

Some helpful hints to improve the model discussions

 

When discussing a 6-10 day storm threat or pattern, try to rely more on ensemble means until we get closer to 120 hrs

Remember that human nature likes to extrapolate the current conditions forward. This means in warm pattern we get a bunch of winter cancel posts that seem to derail the threads. The same thing happens in cold patterns when some posters claim that it won’t eventually get warm again. And if a warmer forecast is presented when it’s cold, don’t go after that poster for hating winter or having a warm bias.

Resoect your fellow posters and never shut down a conversations that presents varying opinions about an upcoming forecast.

 

The problem is some posters are just a broken record...same thing every post. Ever notice how with some, you know what they posted even before you read it lol.. It's amazing how well that works for some.

 

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5 minutes ago, doncat said:

The problem is some posters are just a broken record...same thing every post. Ever notice how with some, you know what they posted even before you read it lol.. It's amazing how well that works for some.

 

I think that they can do better if they try. It would make things so much easier. It’s tough having to wade through all those posts since it takes the attention away from the actual weather. Makes it harder to find relevant posts that get lost in the mix.

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47 minutes ago, doncat said:

The problem is some posters are just a broken record...same thing every post. Ever notice how with some, you know what they posted even before you read it lol.. It's amazing how well that works for some.

 


Posters here are like cartoon characters of themselves.  Same well-worn tropes day after day.  

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

I think that they can do better if they try. It would make things so much easier. It’s tough having to wade through all those posts since it takes the attention away from the actual weather. Makes it harder to find relevant posts that get lost in the mix.

Half of them get hidden.  Mods can't be on here 24/7.  Every Christmas I'm asked what I want.  And all I want for Christmas is for people on here to act like adults! 

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4 hours ago, danstorm said:


Posters here are like cartoon characters of themselves.  Same well-worn tropes day after day.  

Help by posting more often!

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34 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Half of them get hidden.  Mods can't be on here 24/7.  Every Christmas I'm asked what I want.  And all I want for Christmas is for people on here to act like adults! 

I wasn’t referring to the moderators. The post was addressing ways for the members to make this a better place. You guys have enough to do without having to worry about this type of behavior. The whole moderating team does an amazing job here. I can’t imagine what it was like for the moderating team to have to delete all the Sandy is going to bust posts that day. It was a stressful situation enough without all that side drama. My electricity was going on an off and the bust posts made the thread very hard to read.

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18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I wasn’t referring to the moderators. The post was addressing ways for the members to make this a better place. You guys have enough to do without having to worry about this type of behavior. The whole moderating team does an amazing job here. I can’t imagine what it was like for the moderating team to have to delete all the Sandy is going to bust posts that day. It was a stressful situation enough without all that side drama. My electricity was going on an off and the bust posts made the thread very hard to read.

I know you weren't talking about Bx and I.  I was just commenting on your post.

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44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I wasn’t referring to the moderators. The post was addressing ways for the members to make this a better place. You guys have enough to do without having to worry about this type of behavior. The whole moderating team does an amazing job here. I can’t imagine what it was like for the moderating team to have to delete all the Sandy is going to bust posts that day. It was a stressful situation enough without all that side drama. My electricity was going on an off and the bust posts made the thread very hard to read.

 

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1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Half of them get hidden.  Mods can't be on here 24/7.  Every Christmas I'm asked what I want.  And all I want for Christmas is for people on here to act like adults! 

Even J. Marley and his three friends would have trouble getting that one done for you. As always ....

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2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

This is why @BxEngine gets so frustrated 

This is also why you never cancel winter...

 

Screenshot_20200112-151503_Gallery.jpg

Amazing to keep an act up for a decade. Lol

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1 hour ago, Rjay said:

And then the grande finale

 

 

I just don’t get that while the storm is in progress. I saw a bunch of similar  posts while I was  trying to go through the storm observations.  You guys really had your hands full. The Euro and EPS forecasts from 7-8 days out were superb.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/10913-evaluation-forecasts-hurricane-sandy

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I just don’t get that while the storm is in progress. I saw a bunch of similar  posts while I was  trying to go through the storm observations.  You guys really had your hands full. The Euro and EPS forecasts from 7-8 days out were superb.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/10913-evaluation-forecasts-hurricane-sandy

Even by 4 days out the storm was extremely well-modeled.

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