Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, Snow88 said:

Good look

The  secondary low would be sweet.

H5 looks ok. Might be some good banding with the low that close but unsure of thermals. 

[RDRY]

41 minutes ago, Amped said:

Anyone remember the Xmas 2002 storm? It was supposed to be mostly rain with more snow in NW areas.  Started off that way, but changed over to snow and  a band stalled over NYC, Long Island and CT,  Ended up with 6-10 in those areas.  That evolution  reminds me of what the CMC is showing.

I do. An unforecasted traffic nightmare.

[weathermedic]

5 minutes ago, RDRY said:

I do. An unforecasted traffic nightmare.

Also had some decent coastal flooding if I remember correctly.

[weatherpruf]

8 minutes ago, RDRY said:

I do. An unforecasted traffic nightmare.

So forgettable here I had to look it up. 1-3 inches and more like 1 through most of northern Middlesex County. I do remember taking a walk in it, just for the mood flakes, in sneakers. 

[Ericjcrash]

Nobody has a UK clown map?

[donsutherland1]

14 minutes ago, RDRY said:

I do. An unforecasted traffic nightmare.

Albany also picked up 21”.

[purduewx80]

2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Nobody has a UK clown map?

none of the coast/city/long island or even BOS get anything of consequence on its raw snow output. inland location are another story.

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, purduewx80 said:

none of the coast/city/long island or even BOS get anything of consequence on its raw snow output. inland location are another story.

Figured when it was tucked in but still curious. Must've been pretty ICONish. 

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, Amped said:

Anyone remember the Xmas 2002 storm? It was supposed to be mostly rain with more snow in NW areas.  Started off that way, but changed over to snow and  a band stalled over NYC, Long Island and CT,  Ended up with 6-10 in those areas.  That evolution  reminds me of what the CMC is showing.

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/25-Dec-02.html

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, purduewx80 said:

none of the coast/city/long island or even BOS get anything of consequence on its raw snow output. inland location are another story.

Doesn't this seem a more likely scenario historically? This wouldn't surprise me TBH. Hoping for something better though.

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

Doesn't this seem a more likely scenario historically? This wouldn't surprise me TBH. Hoping for something better though.

 

With a low hugging the NJ coast I am not surprised by the outcome being depicted

[Tatamy]

10 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Nobody has a UK clown map?

If you are 30 to 40 miles or more to the north and west you get 1 to 2 feet.  0z was similar.

[weatherpruf]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/25-Dec-02.html

Yeah that little sliver of Union Co bordering Middlesex is where I took my walk that day, Rahway River Park. It was 1-3. Nice to walk in but I had no idea it was major storm elsewhere. Busy time of year. And didn't pay as much attention then.

[MJO812]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

 

With a low hugging the NJ coast I would expect this.

Ukie was pretty cold though and the city would be snow once the low pulls away.

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

If you are 30 to 40 miles or more to the north and west you get 1 to 2 feet.  0z was similar.

Yea that seems to be the likely outcome here although I think you'll have to be more than 30 to 40 miles to see 1 to 2 feet due to the sleet factor.

[Ericjcrash]

Euro looks like a warm version of yesterday's 12z run thru 48

[HVSnowLover]

Euro is NW of yesterdays 12Z run, no surprise. Doesn't look terrible though.

[BxEngine]

Hopefully final friendly reminder that this forum encompasses more than just the coast. If you feel the threat is dead, you can discuss the overall pattern in the appropriate thread and allow the people in this subforum in the metro area to discuss the potential. 

[Ericjcrash]

[Nibor]

12z euro is tucked and crawls south of Long Island to over cape cod. 

[Ericjcrash]

[HeadInTheClouds]

HV probably buried on this run. Somebody please post snow map when available. 

[NYCweatherNOW]

Euro is a big snowstorm for the whole region!

[Ericjcrash]

[NYCweatherNOW]

14 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Euro is NW of yesterdays 12Z run, no surprise. Doesn't look terrible though.

With that track you’ll get more snow than a foot

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

Euro is a big snowstorm for the whole region!

Huge dropoff from yesterday but the city gets a bit over 5" Monday. HV and CT demolished.

[USCG RS]

With that track you’ll get more snow than a foot

In fact, a closed LP south of LI with such a strong HP to the N may actually deliver a pretty good shot of snow.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[Sn0waddict]

Tough time believing those maps given the track. But Euro has sort of been all over the place with this too, so I wouldn’t fret too much.  Where the low retrogrades is a huge question mark still.

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

100% the gradient on those bands will be remarkable, some people will be getting 2-3 inch/hr rates while @ericjcrash gets flurries

Agree who gets the banding will really decide the storm. 

[NYCweatherNOW]

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

Tough time believing those maps given the track. But Euro has sort of been all over the place with this too, so I wouldn’t fret too much.  Where the low retrogrades is a huge question mark still.

That’s a great track for heavy snow. 850’s never go above freezing in nyc