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Ralph Wiggum

Coastal Storm Dec 1-2

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I'm far from scientific, but I'm not crazy in saying that this scenario doesn't typically perform well, right? Absolutely nothing going on here. I know for a fact we've been burned plenty of times on this situation and only one time in recent memory can I recall this playing out well.

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Ten minutes later now moderate snow and 35F. 

Last winter I endured at least half a dozen systems forecast to be 2-3" and  received <1",  can it go the other way for once?

* most of those events ended up .1-.2"

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said:

I'm far from scientific, but I'm not crazy in saying that this scenario doesn't typically perform well, right? Absolutely nothing going on here. I know for a fact we've been burned plenty of times on this situation and only one time in recent memory can I recall this playing out well.

I am seeing people say this isn't a miller B but whatever it's label it's a late developing coastal and they just love to short their SW flank on predicted snow.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Ten minutes later now moderate snow and 35F. 

Last winter I endured at least half a dozen systems forecast to be 2-3" and  received <1",  can it go the other way for once?

 

 

I've been watching the rain/slow line slowly moving off the coast with the blues and purples filling in over your area. Was wondering if that was translating into real snow or what. :lol:

radar-zoom6-12022019.png

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This hasn't been that impressive even in Northern Warren County, NJ. I've never been a fan of these types of systems. I would much rather have either a Miller A event or even an overrunning/SWFE  with mixing, where at least a substantial amount of QPF is likely. I don't know the reasoning as to why models tend to overdo precipitation amounts on the south and west side of Miller B type storms, even if this current storm doesn't technically meet that classification. 

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1 minute ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

This hasn't been that impressive even in Northern Warren County, NJ. I've never been a fan of these types of systems. I would much rather have either a Miller A event or even an overrunning/SWFE  with mixing, where at least a substantial amount of QPF is likely. I don't know the reasoning as to why models tend to overdo precipitation amounts on the south and west side of Miller B type storms, even if this current storm doesn't technically meet that classification. 

I think the problem is figuring out the meso scale probabilities where they overdo the convection that could draw in and self-generate cold air that would up the chances for a switch to all-frozen. What often kills that scenario is warm air that filters in well above the surface due to the (relatively) "warmer" ocean temps and unless there's a big arctic high to the north, it just can't get the cold air down through the whole column.

 

nws-current-surface-map-12022019.gif

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Just now, RedSky said:

Winter storm warning hoisted here for 3-6" from NWS

Winter storm warning for 5-8" continued for Qtown/upper Bucks? Interesting is it going to fill in that far west.

 

 

 

Nope. Winter storm warning for a trace of snow, not even a dusting. Not sure what they are waiting for to drop them. It's pretty clear this one is over. 

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5 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Winter storm warning hoisted here for 3-6" from NWS

Winter storm warning for 5-8" continued for Qtown/upper Bucks? Interesting

 

 

Recent mesos seem to want to back in a couple bursts later on/tonight in extreme SEPA

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16 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

It is RAINING in Allentown, just to add insult to injury.

Just got to my work in Bath and at least it’s snowing there. Coating on some grassy areas.

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40°F and nothing. Roads are almost completely dry from a little drizzle we had earlier. At least this was an interesting start to our winter weather. Glad some other board members are making out ok at least. I'll live vicariously through you all for just a little longer. :)

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53 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Nope. Winter storm warning for a trace of snow, not even a dusting. Not sure what they are waiting for to drop them. It's pretty clear this one is over. 

.3" the snow is intermittent and non accumulating the last hour. Radar is not impressive no signs of expanding in NJ.

 

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35 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Important note the upper low is currently over central PA, over the next several hours the radar should fill in over eastern PA/NJ for the bulk of round #2

 

SPC Mesoanalyais actually shows it centered over the Chesapeake Bay currently. Still a chance for a little snow through the evening I suppose. Been getting a few small flakes here off and on for the last hour or two. Congrats to you and everyone up that way!

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1 hour ago, LVblizzard said:

Just got to my work in Bath and at least it’s snowing there. Coating on some grassy areas.

The coating we had earlier this morning from yesterday's sleet and freezing rain and this morning's brief light snow episode is melted. We haven't had anything but flurries here, and the current temp is 36.

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