• Member Statistics

    15,604
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Maggie Ace
    Newest Member
    Maggie Ace
    Joined
Ralph Wiggum

Coastal Storm Dec 1-2

Recommended Posts

Looks like the potential is there across guidance for an event Dec 1-2. Going to come down to HL ridging/blocking as the ULL bowls East. Strong enough ridging to the N from S Central Canada across SE Greenland (bridge) could force far enough S to redevelop in a favorable spot. Ens and ops are starting to key on decent ridging with mslp developing off of VA Beach. WAA band could provide snow to begin then need to see how things evolve irt how the coastal will play out. Looks rather dynamic. More later gotta run:

 

gfs_z500a_namer_23.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS all alone makes me weary about this threat right now. Still good trends today across all models. Think the most likely solution though is a brief period of WAA snow followed by a  cold rain at this time save for Northern areas. Marginal events in early december just don't usually work out in our favor. Give me this pattern from mid dec- Feb though and we'll score more often than not.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The primary into the lakes in early December is always going to be majority rain for us. Why people are falling for errant runs of the snow happy GFS I don't know. Those GFS runs showing a secondary forming and moving southeast were lol. Now later in the season you get a mixed bad situation that is better further north.

  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, RedSky said:

The primary into the lakes in early December is always going to be majority rain for us. Why people are falling for errant runs of the snow happy GFS I don't know. 

  

@RedSky is out on this potential....noted

Euro came south with the ULL pass in a beautiful spot much like the GEFS.  EPS should be interesting. Looks like a 13-14 situation where models are playing catchup irt surface as things progress along. Again, if the ULL trends and H5 height adjustments continue at HL the surface will catch up to the upper levels. Really good trends today and wouldnt be surprised to start seeing some weenie runs over the next few days. If this were winter climo I would be all in. Going to be interesting tho with a dynamic energetic ull situation so anything could happen. Would be foolish to just assume this will be one particular precip type at this point. Potential is there for some surprises.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not many changes, still a marginal situation and a bit early irt prime climo. Low should track towards the GL then redevelop off the S NJ coast thanks to ridging in the N Atl. WAA could yield some frozen to start in spots then over to rain for most outside of higher elevations especially well N and W. Coastal gets cranking but probably too late to help with much accumulating snow outside of elevated areas again far N (and W pending track). Seems the general consensus at this point anyway. Good to dust off the tracking links early anyway. Pattern certainly looks active moving into early December and as we head farther into December and winter climo.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not many changes, still a marginal situation and a bit early irt prime climo. Low should track towards the GL then redevelop off the S NJ coast thanks to ridging in the N Atl. WAA could yield some frozen to start in spots then over to rain for most outside of higher elevations especially well N and W. Coastal gets cranking but probably too late to help with much accumulating snow outside of elevated areas again far N (and W pending track). Seems the general consensus at this point anyway. Good to dust off the tracking links early anyway. Pattern certainly looks active moving into early December and as we head farther into December and winter climo.

Ralph - Wasn't this supposed to develop off the Virginia Capes?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Old EE rule in effect? NAM looks similar to the EPS....stronger hp, colder, develops slp farther S. Verbatim would be a brief snow to rain then back over. N zones look solid for a decent event.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Drastic shift south on the ULL low on the 12z ECM and you get a look like the ridiculous GFS fantasy maps two days ago lol. Now i have seen everything gonna call this a phantom run cannot trust a miller B we almost always get burned.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hard NOT to be surprised at the last few euro/eps/ggem/ukie runs tbh. It isnt very often that we get systems to trend in our favor.....which is why I am still on the fence irt Philly proper. If this continues thru 12z fri, it is probably time to jump all-in. The euro showing 6-10" up here is certainly something to be thankful for on this Thanksgiving. We take for now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EPS was a nice tick S as well. Warning criteria snow up here. My gut wants to say we are seeing the windshield wiper effect. But my brain says the S trend may be legit as there is now a banana high appearing across most guidance. If that feature is real and continues to appear on future runs, we may be in business. Interesting.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said:

Didn't like the setup last system and still don't like this setup. I've got my doubts

It is a bad setup too many things can go wrong. Real skeptical about the ECM too last year it had a number of fails in the medium range.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fwiw the Ukie still wraps a band of heavy snow through the heart of the region only moved a little NE with it(still screws the eastern crowd but manages to hit central S Jersey, hello last winter lol)

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.