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Ralph Wiggum

Coastal Storm Dec 1-2

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Just now, RedSky said:

My forecast was cut and looking at radar trends and 18z runs the 3-6" warning is a bust although 3" is a remote chance. Welcome winter! :lol:

 

 

Got that one epic fail out of the way early. Seems years where our first is a surprise or overperformer the rest of the season sucks. Let's hope the opposite rings true here.

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Got that one epic fail out of the way early. Seems years where our first is a surprise or overperformer the rest of the season sucks. Let's hope the opposite rings true here.

Worst thing is i saw this setup as a snowball chance in hell of performing five days ago, then all the fantasy model outputs for days, only to end as a melted snowball in hell.

 

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3 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Worst thing is i saw this setup as a snowball chance in hell of performing five days ago, then all the fantasy model outputs for days, only to end as a melted snowball in hell.

 

These occluding stalled systems almost always fail. Precip shield is never as expensive as modeled, radar usually ragged,  and the jackpot zone is almost never where modeled and a relatively small area.

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Man this one hurts, Warned for 4-8” in Mercer county,  NJ and we literally got nothing. Hoping to salvage an inch of scraps on the back end as the HRRR alludes to but at this point I’m thinking this one is game, set, set and match. We are really overdue for a nice cold Miller A to bury the whole sub. 

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

Man this one hurts, Warned for 4-8” in Mercer county,  NJ and we literally got nothing. Hoping to salvage an inch of scraps on the back end as the HRRR alludes to but at this point I’m thinking this one is game, set, set and match. We are really overdue for a nice cold Miller A to bury the whole sub. 

Yeah, I was just thinking, Trenton area got this the worst.

NWS:

4-8 inches

Well actually 2-4 more even though nothing is on the ground.

Well maybe 1-2.....well no actually the precip is done.

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43 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Wasn't there some groundskeeper guy promising a big storm a coming :whistle:

At least we got the dust off the old tracking links and we are officially inside met winter now. Would rather be tracking than be in a complete shutout pattern like recent Decembers.

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2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

The Pocono's and upstate PA got it the worst as far as expectations, has the ECM ever failed this bad. Dead in that forum too like they could care less lol.

 

 

Was pretty much across the board on models for that area. Weird that all mesos failed within 18 hours of the event like this. But thus is the Miller B-hybrid occluded slp.

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Was under a winter storm warning for 8-12.” The end result was ~2.” I’m actually in remarkably good spirits considering the fail. It could be because I was never that enthusiastic about this storm to begin with.

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After hours of nothing we now have light rain with some flakes mixed in. This downgrade to winter weather advisory isn't even going to verify.

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It has snowed very lightly much of the day with little on the radar. A couple hundred feet lower at my son's school it was just drizzle. That said with some of those pivot bands making it back in this direction the snow has picked up as you can see below - might get another coating like this AM...

Backyard.20191202_182302.jpg

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11 hours ago, J.P. said:

Should be an interesting day. Just started snowing in Exton. Temp 34

I was wrong, today was very uninteresting around these parts. It did snow lightly for much of the day though occasionally mixing in with or briefly changing to drizzle. 

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It’s currently 33 here. We’ve had snow this evening, but it’s soaking wet outside now. The snowfall isn’t heavy enough (It’s really flurries) to lay on the ground at all. Disappointing to be sure.

Still. I rather like Wiggum’s words about having a disappointing early storm paving the way for a nice winter this year  as opposed to the opposite that happened last year. 

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