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NYCweatherNOW

December 2019

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18 hours ago, uncle W said:

the last time a major snowstorm came on Dec. 21-22 was back in 1959...59 had a white Christmas for the first time in 11 years...

lurking for so many years I know a neg nao and pos pna is what snow lovers want

 

so these graphics *seem* like a step in the right direction

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14 minutes ago, RichBailey said:

lurking for so many years I know a neg nao and pos pna is what snow lovers want

 

so these graphics *seem* like a step in the right direction

it looks good on paper...doesn't mean it will happen...the 1959 storm had a positive ao and nao with a neg pna...go figure...

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1 hour ago, RichBailey said:

lurking for so many years I know a neg nao and pos pna is what snow lovers want

 

so these graphics *seem* like a step in the right direction

the nao is most important

79386392_1370473286463824_8178187265722286080_n.jpg

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22 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the nao is most important

 

The NAO and the strength of the ridge along the West Coast for the 2010’s. This is the composite for the 16 biggest 10”+snowfalls for NYC metro since 2010.
 

2310D05D-E929-4704-BC07-C9A4F07E1A08.gif.2827308ddf09a71273da451aed42e84e.gif

 

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40 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Good trends on AO and NAO

Would be terrible if we waste a negative NAO and AO period due to a crappy pack. We are going to see a great storm track ex on GFS with all rain.

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6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Would be terrible if we waste a negative NAO and AO period due to a crappy pack. We are going to see a great storm track ex on GFS with all rain.

We need that vortex south of Alaska to slow down or retrograde.  If that can happen we’ll build some ridging out west.  The negative NAO looks great but the pacific can do it’s damage with this set up.  

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18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Would be terrible if we waste a negative NAO and AO period due to a crappy pack. We are going to see a great storm track ex on GFS with all rain.

The Pac has to be extraordinarily bad for a -NAO/AO combo to not at least give you some chances.  Generally as long as there isn’t a death vortex in the GOA a bad Pac can be cancelled out enough by the Atlantic.  The Pac basically sucked in 10-11 even in December and January but it didn’t matter with the -NAO.  We still did well.  
 

I should add also the Pac influence becomes less and less against an NAO/AO the later you get.  We saw this in December 96 and I believe December 2012.  Bad Pac was able to beat out the good AO, NAO or both but if you have the same thing going on in later January the Pac will lose more frequently 

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17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Pac has to be extraordinarily bad for a -NAO/AO combo to not at least give you some chances.  Generally as long as there isn’t a death vortex in the GOA a bad Pac can be cancelled out enough by the Atlantic.  The Pac basically sucked in 10-11 even in December and January but it didn’t matter with the -NAO.  We still did well.  

The Pacific became favorable from 12-26-10 to 2-2-11. We can remember all the day 10 phantom snowstorms the models were producing from late November to the solstice. We needed the -5 AO in mid December and record 500 mb positive height anomaly over Greenland to eventually build the ridge back closer to the West Coast.

603A0770-272A-416E-AB43-7CAB934FF42C.gif.0af722e5c064ac3a44fa386fab1f4a3f.gif

AE73DAD5-F375-4B58-9A73-9949E53F5471.gif.8cc35d9923645092f371790d6c1ab7d5.gif

 

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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Pacific became favorable from 12-26-10 to 2-2-11. We can remember all the day 10 phantom snowstorms the models were producing from late November to the solstice. We needed the -5 AO in mid December and record 500 mb positive height anomaly over Greenland to eventually build the ridge back closer to the West Coast.

603A0770-272A-416E-AB43-7CAB934FF42C.gif.0af722e5c064ac3a44fa386fab1f4a3f.gif

AE73DAD5-F375-4B58-9A73-9949E53F5471.gif.8cc35d9923645092f371790d6c1ab7d5.gif

 

Yes, the type of -NAO and the strength matters, a weak or even moderate -NAO or an east-based -NAO does you no good at all when the PAC is total garbage. When the PAC is real bad, you need a strong/very strong Greenland blocked, west-based negative NAO. You also need a strong/very strong -AO to go along with it or you’re going to have big, big problems

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30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yes, the type of -NAO and the strength matters, a weak or even moderate -NAO or an east-based -NAO does you no good at all when the PAC is total garbage. When the PAC is real bad, you need a strong/very strong Greenland blocked, west-based negative NAO. You also need a strong/very strong -AO to go along with it or you’re going to have big, big problems

So it's true in fact, there are many many more bad patterns than there are good ones.  Based on past winter experiences, I'd say the bad patterns outnumber good patterns for snow by something like 80% to 20%

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The NAO and the strength of the ridge along the West Coast for the 2010’s. This is the composite for the 16 biggest 10”+snowfalls for NYC metro since 2010.
 

2310D05D-E929-4704-BC07-C9A4F07E1A08.gif.2827308ddf09a71273da451aed42e84e.gif

 

what about in years when we have a broader trough (cold air all across the US, including both coasts.)

 

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4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The latest guidance is indicating that much of the region will receive a general 1.00"-2.00" precipitation with locally higher amounts (especially in eastern New England) of 2.50". As a result, New York City will very likely reach 50" precipitation for the second consecutive year. Allentown will likely reach 60" precipitation for a record-breaking second consecutive year.

After 1970, New York City has moved into an abruptly wetter climate regime. During the 1869-1970 period, New York City averaged 42.89" annual precipitation with a return time of 50.00" or more precipitation of every 8.5 years. 1971-2018 has had average annual precipitation of 50.74" (more than 1 standard deviation above the 1869-1970 average). The return time for years with 50.00" or more precipitation has fallen sharply to 2.3 years (2.2 should 2019 reach 50.00").

Below is a table for year-to-date precipitation, how 2019 currently ranks among the wettest years on record, and rankings for various precipitation scenarios:

Precip12132019.jpg

 

our new wetter climate has also increased allergies (especially mold and mildew) and raised humidity levels.  It used to be only very strong el ninos that made our climate this wet, now it's everything!

 

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Whatever falls as frozen will melt pretty quickly. The models have 50’s and rain at the end of the storm on Tuesday.

NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK
 KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  12/13/2019  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 FRI  13| SAT 14| SUN 15| MON 16| TUE 17| WED 18| THU 19| FRI 20 CLIMO
 X/N  50| 49  57| 42  49| 30  38| 34  51| 28  35| 22  30| 25  37 30 42

we seem to have returned to our normal pattern lol.

 

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The Euro is just torching the country under a fast Pacific jet pattern. 

The northeast has basically been an ice cube in an ocean of lava this month. The blocking will probably continue to offset the torch for us but it wouldn't surprise me if we still ended up with a positive anomaly.

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7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The Euro is just torching the country under a fast Pacific jet pattern. 

The northeast has basically been an ice cube in an ocean of lava this month. The blocking will probably continue to offset the torch for us but it wouldn't surprise me if we still ended up with a positive anomaly.

the anomaly (whether positive or negative) really doesn't matter in this pattern, all we'll get is rain storms or snow changing to rain.  I'd much rather have a milder pattern with actual snowstorms.  It can be 30 degrees on the days it snows and 50 every other day for all I care.  That's actually better for getting around and snow removal anyway.

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The Euro is just torching the country under a fast Pacific jet pattern. 

The northeast has basically been an ice cube in an ocean of lava this month. The blocking will probably continue to offset the torch for us but it wouldn't surprise me if we still ended up with a positive anomaly.

The Euro is showing an extremely ugly PAC developing, wow

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5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The Euro is showing an extremely ugly PAC developing, wow

Eps has a weak signal for a coastal low

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5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The Euro is showing an extremely ugly PAC developing, wow

I didnt see you comment on the icebox that  it showed at 12z yesterday. 

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24 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I didnt see you comment on the icebox that  it showed at 12z yesterday. 

Not my business, but that's never stopped me before....

Why engage with anyone here who takes such glee in raining (pun) on your parade?  People who love delivering 'bad' news about a forecast because they know it will disappoint snow-loving folks (or heat-loving folks) are a complete waste of energy and pretty pathetic.  Stop feeding them.

/back to business-minding

 

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3 minutes ago, Maureen said:

Not my business, but that's never stopped me before....

Why engage with anyone here who takes such glee in raining (pun) on your parade?  People who love delivering 'bad' news about a forecast because they know it will disappoint snow-loving folks (or heat-loving folks) are a complete waste of energy and pretty pathetic.  Stop feeding them.

/back to business-minding

 

Good idea

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

The Euro is just torching the country under a fast Pacific jet pattern. 

The northeast has basically been an ice cube in an ocean of lava this month. The blocking will probably continue to offset the torch for us but it wouldn't surprise me if we still ended up with a positive anomaly.

The December temperature departure may come down to what happens during the last week of the month. But you can see how the fast Pacific flow has kept much of the CONUS mild this month. A small pocket of cold has managed to hold on over the GL and NE. Next 10 days look like more of the same.

0642F006-B01B-4C2B-A335-27488DEF8082.thumb.png.05ccd473819e04f4a4f60c3e2c046412.png

B4F3067F-8E72-4804-B631-F37ADF5242CC.thumb.png.51ae88aa3e3e32fe46cdb0c79c725027.png

04C848E8-6B99-4672-B97E-BC2867311020.thumb.png.73a3117ad4ad43647307a79e7d569998.png

 

 

 

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I know no one cares cause it's not snow but the euro shows close to 4" precip round the metro next week to ten days...also couple inches front end snow with early week system...followed by some very cold temps...but carry on, nothing to see here.

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