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NYCweatherNOW

December 2019

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It may come down to what the MJO does. The GFS has a milder looking MJO forecast than the Euro. But these forecasts can change quite a bit over the course of a few days. 
 

F27D4EE8-8EFC-42C0-B25E-5904DE2EA847.gif.f8bcc352917ea2089836e8963e4caecf.gif

 

Agreed. Hopefully if GFS is right it's at that low amplification.

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Ahead of another push of colder air, the temperature reached 50° in Central Park. Over the next 7-10 days, temperatures will exhibit wide variability.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around November 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20.

The SOI was +4.00 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.967.

No significant stratospheric warming appears likely through December 15. Wave 2 activity is forecast to remain suppressed and the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold through mid-month on the EPS. According to NCEP, the correlation of 16-day 10 mb GFS temperature forecasts is near 0.25 (much worse than flipping a coin). 5 mb forecasts have an even lower correlation.

On December 5, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.630 (RMM). The December 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.485.

After a generally cold first week of December, warmer conditions will likely return. There is a chance that the second week of December could see one or more days with much above normal readings topping out in the 50s and perhaps even near 60° in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Nevertheless, cold shots will continue to occur on a periodic basis. Moreover, the third week of the month could turn colder and possibly for a more sustained period of time, especially if the EPO goes negative.

Despite the periodic cold shots and possible longer-duration period of cold, no snowstorms appear likely through at least the next 7-14 days in much of the region. Lake effect regions, upstate New York, and northern New England could see additional accumulations. The possibility could also exist for rain to end as a period of snow or flurries as storms depart and colder air returns.

When it comes to New York City's 4" or greater snowstorms the PNA is more important than the AO during the first half of December. Since 1950, December 1-15 has seen 10 storms bring 4.0" or more snow to New York City. 50% occurred with an AO- or AO+. However, 80% occurred when the PNA was positive. All 6" or greater snowstorms during this timeframe occurred when the PNA was positive. The December 1-3 storm occurred with a negative PNA and Central Park received 1.6" snow. During the second half of December, larger snowstorms have occurred with a negative PNA.

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Overall the month probably won't be a torch but it won't be favorable for much snow either. 

The LR is a complete guessing game right now and it seems to change daily. 

 

72DD2496-49CC-4283-B179-F5A3BE82757A.gif

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Next 8 days are averaging 40degs., or about 1deg. AN.

Month to date is  -5.2[36.3].          Should be around  -1.6[38.5] by the 15th.

34* here at 6am.      37* by Noon.     40* by 3pm,

The major models are full of 50-degree days and loads of rain over the next 10 to 15 days.      Just a T to 2" near the 11th., which promises to melt or wash away at once anyway.

Yesterday in talking about the LR EURO, I neglected to note that the CFS has the opposite look---every traveling 30-Day period, including the one ending Jan. 20, is BN for most of the country, it seems.

 

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3 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days are averaging 40degs., or about 1deg. AN.

Month to date is  -5.2[36.3].          Should be around  -1.6[38.5] by the 15th.

34* here at 6am.

The major models are full of 50-degree days and loads of rain over the next 10 to 15 days.      Just a T to 2" near the 11th., which promises to melt or wash away at once anyway.

Yesterday in talking about the LR EURO, I neglected to note that the CFS has the opposite look---every traveling 30-Day period, including the one ending Jan. 20, is BN for most of the country, it seems.

 

The week 2-3 forecast on the CFSv2 (-3.5 degree C average anomaly) could be overdone. It’s an outlier relative to the other guidance. 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Portions of the area could see a 40 degree drop in temperatures from late Tuesday into early Thursday. A 42 degree drop in 36 hours for Newark is the December record set in 1990.

 

C2633366-D44A-4882-BEE5-122DBC0DAC11.thumb.png.42e7b19d51c204d74212047370b83cb0.png
4FFCD5C5-A992-449F-B5EF-C677BEB4DF17.thumb.png.ac1c9f070fe338d62a912b04a7f9488e.png

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&hours=36&month=dec&dir=cool&dpi=100&_fmt=png
924B44AE-A412-441E-A26F-DFFCB79B8D71.png.0be9de195d8a34b1f030d430e0f875c6.png

It’s a strong Arctic front. Hopefully, the record will fall.

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Just now, Snow88 said:

Mjo on the euro and gefs bring it into the COD after phase 7.

What does that mean in terms of snow and cold in our area?

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32 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Flurries are ongoing here, so I've clenched the 7 consecutive days of flakes falling. It's finally at the point where even the GP is taking notice. 

Saw your post and said “That son of a bitch!”  Thought the streak may have ended here yesterday...but no, flurries here as well currently. Mark me up on the big board for 7 days in a row as well. 

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15 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Saw your post and said “That son of a bitch!”  Thought the streak may have ended here yesterday...but no, flurries here as well currently. Mark me up on the big board for 7 days in a row as well. 

Easily the snowiest first week of December on record for Albany. 
 

Time Series Summary for Albany Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Dec 1 to Dec 7
Missing Count
1 2019-12-07 24.5 1
2 2003-12-07 19.2 0
3 1977-12-07 12.4 0
4 1902-12-07 10.3 0
5 1926-12-07 10.2 0
6 1901-12-07 10.0 0
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18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Easily the snowiest first week of December on record for Albany. 
 

Time Series Summary for Albany Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Dec 1 to Dec 7
Missing Count
1 2019-12-07 24.5 1
2 2003-12-07 19.2 0
3 1977-12-07 12.4 0
4 1902-12-07 10.3 0
5 1926-12-07 10.2 0
6 1901-12-07 10.0 0

7” at the stake this morning so it’s been a nice streak...too bad it has to end. 

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2 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

Interesting. Strong high slipping to the east. Weak Upper level low in Texas . Will watch this 

3A32392C-F9E2-431C-9F33-C00954046FAC.png

602514B7-C2C9-45A0-856B-B9E19159E21A.png

22246865-7D49-461E-BB89-3438EF1E95E5.png

AE6083B1-157F-4949-90C3-7BFB112D7795.png

Looks much better for midweek  also

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23 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

You are right. Way different look. Digging much better too. Next system right behind it. Warm verbatim but a good start

955F3E5C-AF25-4B70-8019-45D5F04A38A7.png

9078E741-92A3-4B9B-97A1-250C76B9A4E2.png

59A44E07-6942-43FF-84EC-CA1E9CA1F931.png

8C26D009-72D1-4D8B-9567-6ACB97524B43.png

Cmc is alot better also with the anafront. We really should watch that. 

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12z GGEM is actually giving the entire tri-state a 5 to 8 inch snowfall tuesday night into wednesday as rain changes to snow with the front. I know these rain to snow situations don't usually work out that well here though, so I'm guessing the model is overdoing it.

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1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

12z GGEM is actually giving the entire tri-state a 5 to 8 inch snowfall tuesday night into wednesday as rain changes to snow with the front. I know these rain to snow situations don't usually work out that well here though, so I'm guessing the model is overdoing it.

It's a wave riding the front . It's not your typical rain to backend snow.

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11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It's a wave riding the front . It's not your typical rain to backend snow.

As always, timing critical on the cold and moisture intersection.  If it is indeed a separate piece of energy behind the front, it could be interesting.  For now, keep expectations low regardless of individual runs until we establish higher model solution continuity and consistency. 

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1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

As always, timing critical on the cold and moisture intersection.  If it is indeed a separate piece of energy behind the front, it could be interesting.  For now, keep expectations low regardless of individual runs until we establish higher model solution continuity and consistency. 

Agree

 

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22 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It's a wave riding the front . It's not your typical rain to backend snow.

It is rain changing to snow though. I watched the GGEM color animation, and it goes from rain to rain/sleet/snow mix to snow in a short period of time on the model run.

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24 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Very volatile mid and long-range pattern right now. What I like is cold air is close by and very active pattern with both the northern and southern stream. 

Potential is there with volatility. 

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For the 11th/14th snow chance the EURO is a T,   GFS 6",  CMC 5".        Any snow should be washed away anyway.     The cold air at the surface is lagging behind the 850mb level.

Where is DT on this, since N.Carolina and Virginia, his venue, seem to have a better chance than we do?

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