• Member Statistics

    15,686
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Hurricane Sanders
    Newest Member
    Hurricane Sanders
    Joined
Chicago Storm

Nov. 10-11th snow event thing

Recommended Posts

Going to be interesting how this pans out down here.  We do get some lake enhancement all the way down here at times but the setup has to be just right and sometimes can add another 2-3 inches in a perfect scenario.  The 12Z  3k NAM shows this.  I'd feel a lot more confident on anything over 3" down here if this were a night time system but as the timing looks right now I'll go with 3" of sticky here.  If the moderate temps during the onset are a bit overdone and we could get some +SN rates of over an 1" an hour as the NAM soundings show and the eastward shifting band off of the lake stays robust I could see us getting upwards of 6.  Lot's of and, if's and butt's but thats how we roll down here lol.  Still cool to see this this early.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At this point I can say with pretty high confidence that from Chicago through Michigan and across Southern Ontario should get in the 5-7" range with some areas seeing more depending upon pivot points of bands and enhancement off of Michigan Huron and Ontario. Those places could push a foot.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Increasingly optimistic about 4-5" here.  Could be a bit of a sluggish start with temps above freezing and not so great precip rates but that lake band should pound and make up for lost time even if fairly transient.  Speaking of which, still have some differences on timing that lake enhanced band through the LOT cwa.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I do not know what is this 2-5" nonsense from GRR is. They are going to have to upgrade those amounts tonight lol. But I live in DTX CWA and I know we will get a WWA for the same even though models are showing way more... 

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, AWMT30 said:

I do not know what is this 2-5" nonsense from GRR is. They are going to have to upgrade those amounts tonight lol. But I live in DTX CWA and I know we will get a WWA for the same even though models are showing way more... 

DTX here, too, but we are being told a little over 2", and we're in Lapeer county up near Genessee/Tuscola county line.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think 3-6” is a lock for the entirety of Cook County. The higher amounts will be in the northwestern part of the county and some lucky spots on the lake where LES is most persistent.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

~6” is looking like a lock around here.


.

 

14 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I think 3-6” is a lock for the entirety of Cook County. The higher amounts will be in the northwestern part of the county and some lucky spots on the lake where LES is most persistent.

Yup, definitely potential for a warning criteria jackpot zone if any areas can see overlap between early baroclinic banding and LES, favored NW cook/lake looking most likely. The main show lake band looks p transient on this side of the lake tho so amounts shouldn't get too crazy. Either way, shaping up to be another early season win.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, AWMT30 said:

I do not know what is this 2-5" nonsense from GRR is. They are going to have to upgrade those amounts tonight lol. But I live in DTX CWA and I know we will get a WWA for the same even though models are showing way more... 

This is one (and only one) issue I have with my office. Leaning on american guidance over proven king of consistency

Quote

The 12Z NAM has come more in line with the consistent ECMWFsolution, 

increasing confidence for accums in srn Lwr MI Monday
morning, although the nrn extent of the appreciable accums and
travel impacts is still low confidence given expected sharp
cutoff on the nrn edge in FGEN set-up.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Everyone here is whining about not being forecasted enough snow, and I’m over here like....yassssssss!!! I might get an inch on the grass :lol:   #dontjudgeme #thesouthruinedme :P  

I won't care if it's an inch or 10".  Either way my dogs are going to love it, and I get to watch it falling down and piling up!  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, AWMT30 said:

I do not know what is this 2-5" nonsense from GRR is. They are going to have to upgrade those amounts tonight lol. But I live in DTX CWA and I know we will get a WWA for the same even though models are showing way more... 

NWS web page now shows a WWA for Grand Rapids, Lansing, Kalamazoo, and a Winter Storm Watch for the Michigan thumb.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Everyone here is whining about not being forecasted enough snow, and I’m over here like....yassssssss!!! I might get an inch on the grass :lol:   #dontjudgeme #thesouthruinedme :P  

So you are living in the Midwest now?  For a while I wasn't sure if you were just vacationing.  Welcome.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

So you are living in the Midwest now?  For a while I wasn't sure if you were just vacationing.  Welcome.

Thank you :wub:  I’m currently staying near Cleves, Oh and work in Burlington,Ky. It’s been an interesting adjustment so far :lol: 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Fun little system to track.  Can't believe another quality event so early.  Looks like 4-6" looking more likely here.  If we can get a slight nudge south 6"+ isn't out of the question.

Yep.  Over the last twelve years, I have not had a single 1" snow event before mid November.  None.  Tonight will be our third 2.5+" event already this season... a very rare occurrence.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Chinook said:

NWS web page now shows a WWA for Grand Rapids, Lansing, Kalamazoo, and a Winter Storm Watch for the Michigan thumb.

For 2-5". Bad call in my opinion, I just hope they aren't talking DTX into a lower amount WWA.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I think 3-6” is a lock for the entirety of Cook County. The higher amounts will be in the northwestern part of the county and some lucky spots on the lake where LES is most persistent.

The overall read I am getting from the models is that if a stall/slower movement of the band happens, it is more likely to be north of the city in Lake/northern Cook.  However it is possible that it is fairly progressive even through that area.  It does look progressive through a good chunk of Cook, Lake IN and possibly even Porter.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The overall read I am getting from the models is that if a stall/slower movement of the band happens, it is more likely to be north of the city in Lake/northern Cook.  However it is possible that it is fairly progressive even through that area.  It does look progressive through a good chunk of Cook, Lake IN and possibly even Porter.   

I think an Advisory is prudent for the entire CWA and depending on how the band looks in the AM, that’s where a warning gets triggered.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pretty bad when a 1012 mb low triggers lakeshore flooding.  Pressure gradient is decent though with that incoming high.

 

Lakeshore Hazard Message
National Weather Service Chicago IL
928 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2019

ILZ006-014-102300-
/O.CON.KLOT.LS.Y.0017.191111T0300Z-191112T1800Z/
Lake IL-Cook-
928 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS
EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY...

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...Northeast winds will increase to 30 mph
  tonight with waves building to 8 feet. Winds will increase to
  35 mph Monday as winds shift more northerly with waves
  building to 10 feet. Winds will shift to the northwest Monday
  night.

* TIMING...Late this evening through late Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Flooding and beach erosion are possible in flood
  prone and low lying areas along the Lake Michigan shoreline in
  northeast Illinois.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds will
generate flooding of low areas along the lakeshore.

&&

$$

INZ001-002-102300-
/O.CON.KLOT.LS.A.0001.191111T1200Z-191112T2200Z/
Lake IN-Porter-
928 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...North winds will increase to 35 mph on
  Monday and then shift to the northwest Monday night. Waves are
  expected to build to 12 feet.

* TIMING...Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Flooding and beach erosion are possible along the
  Lake Michigan shoreline in northwest Indiana. Freezing spray
  will also be possible Monday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Watch means that conditions favorable for
lakeshore flooding are expected to develop. Residents on or near
the shore should take action to protect property...and listen for
later statements or warnings.

&&

$$

Kluber
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
1255 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2019

...ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS...

ILZ005-006-012>014-022-INZ001-110300-
/O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0021.191111T0600Z-191111T2000Z/
McHenry-Lake IL-Kane-DuPage-Cook-Will-Lake IN-
Including the cities of Crystal Lake, Algonquin,
Lake in the Hills, McHenry, Woodstock, Cary, Waukegan,
Buffalo Grove, North Chicago, Highland Park, Mundelein, Gurnee,
Round Lake Beach, Aurora, Elgin, Naperville, Wheaton,
Downers Grove, Elmhurst, Lombard, Carol Stream, Addison, Chicago,
Humboldt Park, Hyde Park, Lakeview, Lincoln Park, Logan Square,
Navy Pier, Joliet, Bolingbrook, Gary, Hammond, East Chicago,
and Merrillville
1255 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
2 PM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches,
  with the heaviest accumulations expected over the central and
  northern portions of the Chicago metropolitan area where
  isolated higher totals area possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest Indiana and northeast Illinois.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 2 PM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Untreated roads will become snow covered and travel
  difficult. The hazardous conditions will greatly impact the
  Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusty north to northwest winds Monday could
  result in some minor blowing and drifting snow in open areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for Illinois can be obtained on the
internet at www.gettingaroundillinois.com. The latest road
conditions for Indiana are available by calling 1-800-261-7623.

&&

$$

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.