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moneypitmike

A little pre-season thread: Can Nov. 8 pull off an early win?

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1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The cold certainly should be there in that time frame. 

I’m not even talking wet or white at this point. Looks like a big storm nearby, that’s all. Full moon on the 12th so that makes it more interesting to watch for the coast as well.

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Some people forget the 200 days a year the model correctly predicts partly cloudy and 67 from 5-7 days out, and inside 3 days the big models are almost 90% in getting the high temperature right.

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2 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

Some people forget the 200 days a year the model correctly predicts partly cloudy and 67 from 5-7 days out, and inside 3 days the big models are almost 90% in getting the high temperature right.

What’s the challenge in that? Even the JMA can nail a partly cloudy day in June. 

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What stopped this low from actually developing on most models now, the precip is also out of here much faster on today’s runs. Looks like a fropa and weak not exactly what the pope was calling for at all 

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13 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

Some people forget the 200 days a year the model correctly predicts partly cloudy and 67 from 5-7 days out, and inside 3 days the big models are almost 90% in getting the high temperature right.

More so people don’t care when models correct north or south with a rainstorm during the spring/summer. But in the winter a storm trend of 25 miles north can make  all the difference.

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good to be back for some winter fun and flip flop model run.. went from possibly a few inches to rain showers and next week looks like cold and sn showers, WU app had 5" for Tuesday just a half hour ago... still out a way but I think Thursday night is toast.

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

'grats, right where we want it too

Ha, wont happen like that.  The 12km NAM puts the snow that’ll end up on the mountain over my house because of the grid size.  

Im thinking 4-8” mtns and 2-5” below 1,500ft.  Just need a couple inches to get the snow season started in the backyard.

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12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha, wont happen like that.  The 12km NAM puts the snow that’ll end up on the mountain over my house because of the grid size.  

Im thinking 4-8” mtns and 2-5” below 1,500ft.  Just need a couple inches to get the snow season started in the backyard.

I think that is reasonable. You can always can go uppity up with those numbers, if necessary.

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

I think that is reasonable. You can always can go uppity up with those numbers, if necessary.

Rates look pretty low (light to maybe moderate at times) and the ground is warm and still very wet from all the rain in the past month.  It’ll accumulate once we dip in temps but I do think there’s a good chance of only 2-3” even if there’s 0.5” QPF as snow.  Could be some decent differences between surfaces (grass, picnic tables, pavement) given the persistent -SN look.

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Pending tonight’s 0z runs it’s time to move on for all but a few posters here.

”Like a steam locomotive, rolling down the track, she’s gone, gone and nothings gonna bring her back, yeah she’s gone.” 

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22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Rates look pretty low (light to maybe moderate at times) and the ground is warm and still very wet from all the rain in the past month.  It’ll accumulate once we dip in temps but I do think there’s a good chance of only 2-3” even if there’s 0.5” QPF as snow.  Could be some decent differences between surfaces (grass, picnic tables, pavement) given the persistent -SN look.

3K doubles that at the Picnic tables, don't forget the upslope 

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9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

3K doubles that at the Picnic tables, don't forget the upslope 

Yeah that’s not including any upslope on Friday afternoon or evening.  

3k is prone to getting a bit QPF happy along the Spine.  I just don’t see the juice or dynamics to do those 3k numbers synoptically.  If we had closed mid levels for upslope cyclonic flow.... but most of it looks like overrunning light QPF rates.  

Most of the lift on the soundings looked well below the snow growth zone.  Looked like the lift was in the 700-800mb range, probably from upglide over that steep lower level frontal slope?

BTV looked to have a very similar take as I did... 

841A9966-9564-4337-ADD3-023C8F633797.thumb.jpeg.85dc5a30679b7111bed74956e595fc44.jpeg

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11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that’s not including any upslope on Friday afternoon or evening.  

3k is prone to getting a bit QPF happy along the Spine.  I just don’t see the juice or dynamics to do those 3k numbers synoptically.  If we had closed mid levels for upslope cyclonic flow.... but most of it looks like overrunning light QPF rates.  

Most of the lift on the soundings looked well below the snow growth zone.  Looked like the lift was in the 700-800mb range, probably from upglide over that steep lower level frontal slope?

BTV looked to have a very similar take as I did... 

841A9966-9564-4337-ADD3-023C8F633797.thumb.jpeg.85dc5a30679b7111bed74956e595fc44.jpeg

We heard you sing this song before, multiple times last Nov. Enjoy

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We heard you sing this song before, multiple times last Nov. Enjoy

I don’t even know why I bother thinking critically lol.  Just take the 3km NAM at face value everytime :lol:.

Would you honestly forecast 10-16”?

I’ll certainly go down with the ship if the mountains get 1.2-1.8” QPF by 1am Friday in an overrunning situation.  Seems like classic 3km crystal meth jacked up QPF.  

8E4D06A3-9858-427C-B516-95927AFE5ECD.thumb.png.154c6d07ea7417634ef54adff69a97cf.png

 

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11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I don’t even know why I bother thinking critically lol.  Just take the 3km NAM at face value everytime :lol:.

Would you honestly forecast 10-16”?

I would forecast 20-25% more than what you are calling for every time . ..that sort of is a compliment bc you are dead nuts accurate but have a bias that joe earn your turns is gonna climb your mountain measure 7” when you called for 9” and then never ski Stowe again. 

Edit add 20% in synoptic events 

30% in upslope snows 

and I believe currently 3k nam is on its own 

wish btv wrf didn’t stop working yesterday 

 

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8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I would forecast 20-25% more than what you are calling for every time . ..that sort of is a compliment bc you are dead nuts accurate but have a bias that joe earn your turns is gonna climb your mountain measure 7” when you called for 9” and then never ski Stowe again. 

 

Fair enough.  If we are strictly talking picnic tables, then sure 8” or more is possible.  I truly believe the vast majority of terrain will fall in a 5-8” type range.  I’m usually considering the whole mountain and base area a bit more heavily.  

Sure up at the MMNV1 Stake, 6” or 10” wouldn’t be surprising either way.  

But mechanically, it’s an overrunning event as the wave ripples through.  Like when models show 12-16” in a SWFE and everyone is like hold on, those events are real hard to get more than 6-10” in.  Low level winds are pretty weak so my thought process is wondering how the 3km NAM is squeezing that much QPF in orographics.  But any event that goes wild will match the 3km NAM in hindsight.  

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17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I don’t even know why I bother thinking critically lol.  Just take the 3km NAM at face value everytime :lol:.

Would you honestly forecast 10-16”?

I’ll certainly go down with the ship if the mountains get 1.2-1.8” QPF by 1am Friday in an overrunning situation.  Seems like classic 3km crystal meth jacked up QPF.  

8E4D06A3-9858-427C-B516-95927AFE5ECD.thumb.png.154c6d07ea7417634ef54adff69a97cf.png

 

Yes with ratios picnic tables top 10 inches Congrats again

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