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November 2019 discussion

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46 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Euro and GFS develop some fun in the Gulf and bring it up the coast. 

I hope we just keep seeing"threat" after "threat"...will make winter go by faster and before we know it we'll be back in the 80's and 90's with severe wx to track 

What are you talking about Wiz...bring it up the coast?  It’s a Fropa next week? 

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

What are you talking about Wiz...bring it up the coast?  It’s a Fropa next week? 

beyond that...like 150+ hours out. 

The GFS has been a bit consistent with this development. I think the 0z Euro may be the first run of the euro to show it. 

Not sure what relevance this holds but the GFS has been pretty good this summer/early fall with GoM low pressure developments. 

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14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t know what to tell you. Many times ORH is colder. Today , in the woods , I’m colder. It’s not rocket science. It’s just facts. I have never seen someone so obsessed with thermometers as you are. You question all of them, home and ASOS. Just accept the readings, and love life. It’s too short for thermometer obsession. 

I'm a scientist. That's what we do. Every day we look at model data and question it. Your readings seem to be off. No wonder why you don't post temps in the summer. 

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

New guidance says even northern New England may have problems.

Yeah this one is rapidly trending into a cutter. 

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A couple of head fakes and some weenies are stampeding for the exits...lol. Going to be a tough winter. At least we know the big storms models are blowing up in the 6-10 day timeframe are fraud. For now anyways.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah this one is rapidly trending into a cutter. 

I was half-joking a couple days ago when I said there was plenty of time for this to  be one for YUL.  It's not there yet, but little hope for almost all of us.

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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

beyond that...like 150+ hours out. 

The GFS has been a bit consistent with this development. I think the 0z Euro may be the first run of the euro to show it. 

Not sure what relevance this holds but the GFS has been pretty good this summer/early fall with GoM low pressure developments. 

It will be an active month it seems...so any snow would be a bonus in a traditionally fall month. 

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2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I feel for those who were anxiously tackling their leaves before last night's snow.  And Tuesday's snow.

Well they be frozen to the ground now so they should have done it anyways.

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When it’s november and we have cold to work with and it doesn’t work out just shows you got difficulties accepting our mediocre snow climo in sne . Get counseling 

 

morning folks

The really good times we recall should not be wished for .jusr recalled ...they were the anomalies 

 

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4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I was half-joking a couple days ago when I said there was plenty of time for this to  be one for YUL.  It's not there yet, but little hope for almost all of us.

Yeah the trend has been strong the past 24 hours. We'd need to see a fundamental shift and reverse that. Still possible but unlikely. 

It's too bad because the airmass on the NW side is legit.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the trend has been strong the past 24 hours. We'd need to see a fundamental shift and reverse that. Still possible but unlikely. 

It's too bad because the airmass on the NW side is legit.

 

 

I hate patterns we have to time it right almost perfectly, like more than usual. It reminds me of when I was little weenie in the 80s, growing up in CNJ. 

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18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Oh well. It was a pretty good winter. My final grade is around a B. 

lol, Nice weenie add to the like button i might say.

 

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Is the threat a legit cutter, this looks like another frontal wave that passes by w front to Nw of us, not some organized cutter w ML lows ?

i don’t see this organized on most guidance and would lean weaker and progressive 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I hate patterns we have to time right, like more than usual. It reminds me of when I was little weenie in the 80s, growing up in CNJ. 

Yes. But that unfortunately is usually going to be the case this early because it's hard to have cold entrenched for more than a day or two this early and still support snow. It becomes a bit easier later in the month.

Still, at least we've had a shot on some of these unlike many Novembers where we are waiting for the euro weeklies as our only real model interest. 

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What month is this again? Some have already melted and lost it and we haven't even made it to winter, Wow.

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Is the threat a legit cutter, this looks like another frontal wave that passes by w front to Nw of us, not some organized cutter w ML lows ?

It looks a little more organized than yesterday but I agree it's still more of a frontal wave. It's not a stemwinding cutter going due north or NNE from Birmingham to BUF. 

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the trend has been strong the past 24 hours. We'd need to see a fundamental shift and reverse that. Still possible but unlikely. 

It's too bad because the airmass on the NW side is legit.

 

 

Wasting cold air in early November, sadly it might be our coldest air until January/February... The second half of November and most of December look pretty fairly warm. I can see why some are panicking already, writing off December already.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

What month is this again?

Nov snows are occurring at a slightly higher frequency...this jades our perception. You right though, it’s still fall for the majority of us. 

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Just now, Spanks45 said:

Wasting cold air in early November, sadly it might be our coldest air until January/February... The second half of November and most of December look pretty fairly warm. I can see why some are panicking already, writing off December already.

Many seasonal guys say Dec will be warm/shitty so if we rely on another back loaded winter...it makes us bite our nails some more. 

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nov snows are occurring at a slightly higher frequency...this jades our perception. You right though, it’s still fall for the majority of us. 

I'm in that majority,  Flakes in the air were a nice start though, There's good reason that climo avgs in Nov are low for snow, Very early in the transition to winter.

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Just now, Spanks45 said:

Wasting cold air in early November, sadly it might be our coldest air until January/February... The second half of November and most of December look pretty fairly warm. I can see why some are panicking already, writing off December already.

Ensembles are actually trending toward a reload in the 11/20 timeframe after a relaxation for several days. So hopefully that happens and we get another round of threats late in the month. 

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Many seasonal guys say Dec will be warm/shitty so if we rely on another back loaded winter...it makes us bite our nails some more. 

The weeklies showed that, but two things. One is that the end of the EPS certainly did not show a black hole near AK. The other is that the weeklies have been total voodoo lately in week 3 and 4. Sure one or two runs may work out, but I honestly don't hold a lot of wait with them.

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29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm a scientist. That's what we do. Every day we look at model data and question it. Your readings seem to be off. No wonder why you don't post temps in the summer. 

You are a thermometer obsesser. It’s a sickness , and something you’re getting angry about that is based on conjecture 

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