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November 2019 discussion


weathafella
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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

'80-'81 never got good...except for a brief headfake on 11/17-18 with the solid November snowstorm....but then it just got cold and mostly dry. When the pattern got wet again in February 1981....we absolutely furnaced and most of the precip was rain.

1/4/81 was the last below 0F max at CON.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ORH hit 0F that day...last day that was 0F or colder for a high.

Jan 1994 and last January had a 1F high. 2004 had a couple 2F highs I think.

CON had b2b 0Fs in 2004 and a 1F in 94 like ORH.

Was looking at BTV. Their 2 coldest highs on record tied and occurred on the same date (-16F in 1917 and 1933). I dunno why, but if that happened at CON I feel like it would fill me with rage. CON had a -11F in 1933 and -5F on the same date in 1917, but at least there's some distance between the 2 even though those are #1 and #2 all-time.

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I remember being on the lift at Nashoba Valley the day after a big March dump in 1976.  It was a warm day and drippety drippety with Steely Dan’s Katy Lied playing over the loud speakers.  Seemed like every run I was hearing “bad sneakers and a pina colada my friend stompin’ down the avenue by radio city..”

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53 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I morbidly want 1976 to repeat itself....just to watch the hilarious meltdowns....early December 1976 had a historically cold airmass around Dec 2-4  after a frigid (and relatively snowless) November....2 days later, a massive rainstorm with 2 inches of rain happened...lol. Then right after the rainstorm, highs were in the teens.

The season eventually ended up pretty good...esp for eastern areas, but the frigid and relatively snowless conditions early on would be a hoot on here. We kind of got a preview of that in 2010-2011....we had cold and then a few cutters mixed in early on and there were some people melting down. But they whined their way to a 3 foot snowpack a month and a half later.

I almost had 100"...give me that seaaon.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS cooled a couple ticks for Sunday...that would probably be flipping to heavy wet snow over the interior before ending. But yeah...as Scooter said...man, if we could shave even another 1C or so off this, then it would really be interesting.

Box says worst case 1 inch snow or .1 icing. They are Selling any potential 

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS cooled a couple ticks for Sunday...that would probably be flipping to heavy wet snow over the interior before ending. But yeah...as Scooter said...man, if we could shave even another 1C or so off this, then it would really be interesting.

Hopefully this doesn’t turn into that storm a few years ago when it was 0.5C too warm and you just lost it on here and went ballistic. What a tirade that day lol

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Was that the march nor’easter in 2018 with great track that buried catskills and only far western SNE 

No, I think he's talking about March 2010....that's when I had the meltdown anyway. The Mar 2018 one was pretty brutal too...barely too warm...but at least we got buried back to back shortly after that one.

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18 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Box says worst case 1 inch snow or .1 icing. They are Selling any potential 

Yeah I mean, there's no reason to buy the potential right now....it's worth keeping an eye on over monads and ORH hills and maybe up toward dendrite and interior southern Maine....but a lot needs to happen for it to work out.

Model guidance has subtly been shaving the temps the past 2-3 runs....really slowly, but it's ticked slightly colder. If that continues up until go-time, then it could get pretty interesting. The problem is that it could easily just stop trending that way. The Oct 18, 2009 event actually did this though...looked like rain and then it ticked colder the final 24-36 hours just enough to get ORH hills into the game, and then during the actual storm, there was the Foxborough omega-bomb surprise that wasn't predicted. I'd feel a lot better about it if we had another 1C right now in our pocket....it's a tough task without it.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nothing supports accumulating snow. There is no "potential", as is.....

Well... not to try to convince anyone but as Will mentioned above this has ticked cooler and headed back to rapid deepening.  The height falls are again impressive.  I would not at all be surprised with a 3 to 6 band from the Berks Orh Hills Monads to Jeffafafa in Maine. I am not being optimistic just watching trends.

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53 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I remember being on the lift at Nashoba Valley the day after a big March dump in 1976.  It was a warm day and drippety drippety with Steely Dan’s Katy Lied playing over the loud speakers.  Seemed like every run I was hearing “bad sneakers and a pina colada my friend stompin’ down the avenue by radio city..”

Ski Lodge chili made its way through too quickly...

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2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Just to touch quickly on a storm I got screwed on Royally was 93 Superstorm what a tough one to swallow in SE Mass when Atlanta is left w more snow than you after a change to heavy rain in evening and 3” of cement that I told my neighbor on vacation I would shovel . Literally 3” that required a axe. Max depth was about 11 Prior to the rains. If only I had a car back then .

That storm was somewhat of a disappointment at my (then) Gardiner home.  Forecast from the WSO (then at PWM) was "1 to 3 feet with life-threatening conditions."   We had 10.3" of6:1 snow (no IP/ZR) with upper teens - crummy dendrites plus a bit of riming.  I've yet to find a report from another Maine site that shows a storm total as low as mine.  Not all was negative; that 10" brought the pack to 31", the only time in my 13 winters there that the depth reached the 30s.

1/4/81 was the last below 0F max at CON.

Max at CAR was -16, their coldest on record.  We'd been away that weekend, and when we returned to our Ft. Kent home at 8 PM that Sunday it was -25 with moderate snow, coldest I've seen accumulating SN (though it was less than 1".)

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13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Well... not to try to convince anyone but as Will mentioned above this has ticked cooler and headed back to rapid deepening.  The height falls are again impressive.  I would not at all be surprised with a 3 to 6 band from the Berks Orh Hills Monads to Jeffafafa in Maine. I am not being optimistic just watching trends.

I'd be stunned at 3-6" to the ORH hills.

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29 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Well... not to try to convince anyone but as Will mentioned above this has ticked cooler and headed back to rapid deepening.  The height falls are again impressive.  I would not at all be surprised with a 3 to 6 band from the Berks Orh Hills Monads to Jeffafafa in Maine. I am not being optimistic just watching trends.

Usually this is a good spot in the GOM for here, But can't see thermals, Inside that 540 contour though.

image.png.9b526724dde26b05a03a51abd777dd9e.png

 

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