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Hoosier

Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion

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If the 16-17th storm were to occur, it would most likely be an overrunning event. The departing low this weekend would likely create a "block" around Newfoundland and without a decent ridge out ahead of the storm, there's little room for amplification. 

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11 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

UK is a nothingburger, suppressed south of the subforum.

Still think if Euro shows nada the GFS will eventually cave to the weaker solution

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5 hours ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Might need a thread in the next day or so. 0z GFS with another run showing a siggy event and Euro members looked solid earlier today too 

Got that goin south stank

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The 0z Euro looked pretty interesting. A weak ridge across the PNW (neutral PNA), nice little block across the north with the PV nearby in Hudson Bay, and a weak ridge out ahead in the SE. It wouldn't be a large storm IMO,  but a potent one for some if it were to occur. 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_7.thumb.png.104f123d7c21570f21de1a032ac64f37.png

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I like this one going to Chicago-Metro Detroit for a solid hit. Pre-Christmas storms hooking out of the Panhandle are almost always a lock for the I-94 corridor and wouldn't be shocked if this follows suit. Looks like a dicey ice mix though that needs to be tracked

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Gotta be a bit concerned about the lack of cold showing up in the days before the holiday.  Do we get it back in time or will we be lamenting about how the grinch stole Christmas?  

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On 12/9/2019 at 7:11 AM, Chicago Storm said:

ENS finally showing changes...

Growing support for a neutral to - AO/NAO/PNA starting next weekend. MJO looks likely to head back into the COD, staying out of warmer phases. Add in the PV chunk that will take hold in the Hudson region.

Should lead to more cold shots and chances for snow...finally...for next week. Hopefully can get something going for a white Christmas.


.

On the flip side to this... the Euro ENS and the +EPO it has is a perfect example of what can go wrong, potentially leading to a continued mild/snowless pattern.

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31 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Gotta be a bit concerned about the lack of cold showing up in the days before the holiday.  Do we get it back in time or will we be lamenting about how the grinch stole Christmas?  

Actually the 12Z GFS ensembles are the coldest theyve been in days. The model circus will just continue to go up-and-down all through the Winter and beyond.

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I hate reading this thread, when a page takes days to complete.  Punts, ZZZZzz's, November snows and south stank are like horderves. They kind of tie you over until the main course. Although, I can't wait for the first seasonal weenie melt down and winter to hunker in.

 

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Actually the 12Z GFS ensembles are the coldest theyve been in days. The model circus will just continue to go up-and-down all through the Winter and beyond.

That's true... they have trended colder.  Doesn't negate the concern though.  And lack of cold doesn't necessarily mean all out torch, it just means, well, not cold enough.

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3 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

So summarizing today on 16/17 “threat”:

12z GFS goes north 

12z Euro goes south (weaker)

Is that about right?

GFS is on the northern end, but it has actually shifted south. 

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17 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

So summarizing today on 16/17 “threat”:

12z GFS goes north 

12z Euro goes south (weaker)

Is that about right?

Heading towards Ukie and Chistorm December and punts away. 

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

GFS is on the northern end, but it has actually shifted south. 

As I said awhile back....its all fluff until it's inside of 48hrs showing the same solution on the euro plus 2 additional major models.  

Scoring in this pattern is like trying to get a rabbit pregnant by throwing it in a tumbling dryer with 10 other horny rabbits.   Sure it can happen but there's gonna be a lot more thump'n and bump'n before any hump'n.

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Probably not going to get any reliable sampling on that wave until about Sunday. I'll hold onto my hat until then but that leaves plenty of time for dreamin'.

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The GFS has been atrocious all cool season. No reason yet to put much stock in it until more modeling supports it with next week's potential system. Today's 12z EPS has less members getting snow up this far north. Just have to hope the blind squirrel finds a nut this time.

 

Another note on GFS/GEFS: the GEFS has always been known to be inferior to the EPS because it has less members and it's too non-dispersive (runs too close to the operational). The "upgraded" GFS and the current iteration of the GEFS aren't even based off the same physics package, since the GEFS hasn't been upgraded to the new GFS physics yet. So that probably makes it more of an apples to pears comparison between the op and the ensemble now.

 

The ECMWF and EPS will certainly have misses (such as what it showed for Saturday just a couple nights ago) because it's still a computer modelling system, but it's by far superior and perhaps the gap has grown despite the large sums of money poured into the GFS.

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, buckeye said:

As I said awhile back....its all fluff until it's inside of 48hrs showing the same solution on the euro plus 2 additional major models.  

Scoring in this pattern is like trying to get a rabbit pregnant by throwing it in a tumbling dryer with 10 other horny rabbits.   Sure it can happen but there's gonna be a lot more thump'n and bump'n before any hump'n.

Where do you come up w/ these!!! Love it!

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