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Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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Hope I'm wrong because I love a good snowy January....but I think some of these calls I'm seeing for a positive change soon after New Years, especially for the southeast half of the sub, are dubious at best.   I'm basing this on the indices (ao, nao, epo, and mjo) looking pretty blah if not outright hostile in the long term.  

Hope it turns around and we can get a memorable stretch in January.

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18 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Nothing new to see here. 

That map looks like almost every December since 2010.

I think the biggest problems with this month prior to this week are:

A lack of precip(extremely boring)

The outrageous cold and snow in November which caused December to feel warmer than it really was so far. 

 

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Seriously though, cold air does look iffy no matter where it goes.  Maybe there will be just enough for a band of snow.

Didn't Chi-town get lucky with that Christmas '14 system? Razor thin marginal cold but still worked out for y'all. I could see something like that I suppose. Deepest snow around here that month was "T"

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5 hours ago, roardog said:

I think the biggest problems with this month prior to this week are:

A lack of precip(extremely boring)

The outrageous cold and snow in November which caused December to feel warmer than it really was so far. 

 

This one's actually been decent by this decade's stds (which isn't saying much tbh)

December futility rankings this past decade (based on 1"+ snow cover days):

1. 2014   2. 2018   3. 2015   4. 2011   5. 2019?   6. 2012

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Didn't Chi-town get lucky with that Christmas '14 system? Razor thin marginal cold but still worked out for y'all. I could see something like that I suppose. Deepest snow around here that month was "T"
We didn't get lucky. The system looked promising for a band of heavy wet snow on most of the guidance and then things fell apart last minute. I issued a Winter Storm Watch for the Chicago metro and we got a FAB (flurries at best). Thankfully we made up for that debacle with GHD II.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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28 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Indices are brutal as far as the models go out..... +AO, +NAO, PNA neutral going to negative, +EPO, and MJO moving from COD into 6 and 5.    We need something to shake things up badly.    

in the meantime.... Merry Christmas

The polar vortex is mega mega mega strong. Everywhere in the world is warmer than normal, except the arctic.

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