Torch Tiger Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 Let's hope that coastal whiffs to avoid any real impacts. No one wants coastal erosion or wind damage/power issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: Full moon on the 13th. Event appears to climax on or before 10/12...Worth noting in the event the track trends slower/further west over time... Lower tides though but strong current, now push this back 2 weeks for an extremely strong current high tide and we would be talking historic stuff at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Exactly fetch plus duration and gale winds equals wow. I recall looking at the forecast fetch on Sandy of gale winds leading up to storm and knew that would be very memorable regardless the classification . This is no Sandly! (Not saying that in the least) just that fetch is pretty much the most underrated variable in wave heights followed by duration Pro surf tour on FS2, sweet runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 wtf...where are my 60s? 45F with thick ovc at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: wtf...where are my 60s? 45F with thick ovc at noon. Same here. 45F and thick cloud deck starting around 3,000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 is this storm related to the potential tropical disturbance off the east coast by the hurricane center? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 Come on south my wedged friends. Although, I’d be cursing this if snow were on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 Good news: the 12z gfs and ggem are way, way south /east of 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 West of 6z. Gem is quite the blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 An interesting sidebar is whether we see a STS or TC at some point? I saw bluewave? post the Ukie showing a warm core transition in there. That would cause a little extra chaos in modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: West of 6z. Gem is quite the blow. Are they close enough to give any rain in SNE on the 12z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Are they close enough to give any rain in SNE on the 12z run? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Yes Thank you Anthony. So Dr Dews post was sarcasm...saying they were way South and East??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 OP GFS is certainly cold in far clown range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 Good shot of rain coming over the next day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 1 hour ago, weathafella said: OP GFS is certainly cold in far clown range. When is it not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: When is it not It's that time of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: West of 6z. Gem is quite the blow. Please . We need this big damaging storm here so badly. Please get this beast west and cause issues to grids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 Just started raining at the mountain. Nothing like a 46F rain to make for a nice day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Please . We need this big damaging storm here so badly. Please get this beast west and cause issues to grids Euro is not even close to the cmc and gfs Blocking high pressure stops the storm from coming up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 This one may not even graze us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 Epic upper Midwest blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 7 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: This one may not even graze us It waits until 168 to come north but it stays offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 I wouldn't be so quick to buy into or dismiss the mid-late week coastal storm threat. For now just monitor and see what the next few model runs show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It waits until 168 to come north but it stays offshore. I think that shows the volatility with this storm. I am curious to see what the ensembles and future model runs have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 Man, the 36 hour modeled precip totals for the 12z runs at MVL are: GGEM... 1.90” GFS... 1.85” ECM... 1.43” We are going to be above normal October precip at the ASOS by Tuesday morning if those are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 20 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It waits until 168 to come north but it stays offshore. Right where we want it. 12z gefs too, mean is far offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 Euro was furthest south last nite and now it goes few hundred miles further S - for Thursday - Friday . Close to Bermuda lol then north near us by Saturday lol leading the way or on crack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 2 hours ago, weathafella said: OP GFS is certainly cold in far clown range. While the pattern may ultimately be a colder one, that FV3 cold bias is going to be a tough one to shake this winter. Because of the seasonal progression cold is easier to believe, but given the old GFS propensity to rush cold and the current version biased at long ranges it's probably better that cold shot expectations are tempered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 23 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: While the pattern may ultimately be a colder one, that FV3 cold bias is going to be a tough one to shake this winter. Because of the seasonal progression cold is easier to believe, but given the old GFS propensity to rush cold and the current version biased at long ranges it's probably better that cold shot expectations are tempered. Except when it shows 50 at ORH with a track into central MA, all the while with a 1040 high north of CAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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