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Rtd208

October 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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Long time lurker here but the drought made me come out of the woodwork. JFK just had its first accumulating rain in nearly a month. Where is the rest of the precipitation for the next 36 hours coming from?

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24 minutes ago, eco94 said:

Long time lurker here but the drought made me come out of the woodwork. JFK just had its first accumulating rain in nearly a month. Where is the rest of the precipitation for the next 36 hours coming from?

The sky.

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15 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

The sky.

Who knew my first post could lead to such enlightenment 

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1 hour ago, Isotherm said:

Station indicates a high of 93F for my area today. Today was the hottest October day I can ever remember. There have been memorable days in the mid-upper 80s, but they had a much more "summer in autumn" type feel. Today, to me, was indistinguishable from mid July, if I didn't have a calendar handy. 

Agreed. Even out here it was oppressive. Felt like July. Unreal. 

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Much of the region experienced its hottest October day on record. Records included:

Allentown: 93° (new October record)
Athens, GA: 98°(tied October record)
Atlanta: 96° (new October record)
Baltimore: 98° (new October record) ***59th 90° day ties record set in 2010***
Birmingham, AL: 103° (new October record) ***first annual high temperature in October; records go back to 1895***
Bridgeport: 87°
Charlotte: 99° (new October record)
Harrisburg: 93°
Huntsville, AL: 100° (new October record)
Islip: 89° (new October record)
Lexington, KY: 96°
Louisville: 96°
Macon, GA: 98°
Mobile, AL: 96°
Montgomery, AL: 99°
Nashville: 99° (new October record)
New York City-Central Park: 93°
New York City-JFK: 95° (new October record)
New York City-LGA: 95° (new October record)
Newark: 96° (new October record)
Norfolk: 97° (new October record)
Pensacola: 93°
Philadelphia: 95°
Poughkeepsie: 88°
Raleigh: 96°
Richmond: 98°
Sterling, VA: 96° (new October record)
Tuscaloosa, AL: 101°(new October record)
Washington, DC: 98° (new October record)
White Plains, NY: 90° (new October record)
Wilmington, DE: 98° (new October record)

Much cooler air is now pushing into the region. Tomorrow will likely see temperatures struggling to reach 60°. Overall, a 7-10 day period with readings generally near or below normal lies ahead.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around September 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. The recent strong cooling in Region 1+2 indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have continued to increase.

Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record 2 or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal.

The SOI was -11.93 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.443.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°.

Events during September, including the SOI's falling to -35.30 on September 19, the MJO's being in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the September 20-30 period for more than two days, the historic late September snowfall in Great Falls, MT, and the possible ongoing evolution toward a generally positive AO regime, favor a warmer than normal October based on past outcomes.

On October 1, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.766 (RMM). The September 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.909.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 58%.

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1 hour ago, eco94 said:

Long time lurker here but the drought made me come out of the woodwork. JFK just had its first accumulating rain in nearly a month. Where is the rest of the precipitation for the next 36 hours coming from?

The front stalls to our south and a wave of low pressure forms on it...the exact placement of the rain is still up in the air but someone could see an inch of rain

namconus_apcpn_neus_15.png

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Next 8 days are averaging 61degs., or about 1deg. AN.    (used 70/54 for today).

I reached about 93 yesterday, after I got back from beach.   My surrogate official station is JFK, where it was 95, so 93 might have been low.

60.4* at 6am.    59.7* by 8am.    58.2* by 11am.

 

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3 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Down to 60 here after a high of 95

..i'm currently @ 54*..feels great.

yesterday KFOK got to 88* @ 2pm ish..this morning they're @ 55*..

a 33 degree drop..not bad !

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It'll finally feel more like fall next few days and then they'll be more ups and downs.

However nothing will come close to the heat we've experienced. Hints at more -NAO blocking mid month could signal much stormier weather. 

Currently 56F down from 94F yesterday. 

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46 minutes ago, tim said:

..i'm currently @ 54*..feels great.

yesterday KFOK got to 88* @ 2pm ish..this morning they're @ 55*..

a 33 degree drop..not bad !

40 degree drop here from 95 to 55

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 Amazing to have the warmest October average temperature, monthly maximum temperature, and highest minimum temperature only 2 years apart. 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2017 63.8 0
2 2007 63.5 0
3 1971 63.1 0
4 1990 62.4 0
5 1984 62.2 0
Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2019 96 29
2 1941 93 0
3 1949 92 0
4 1959 91 0
5 1939 90 0
- 1938 90 0
Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2017 73 0
2 1959 71 0
3 2018 70 0
- 2005 70 0
- 1990 70 0
- 1986 70 0
- 1954 70 0

 

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Looks like we have the strongest +IOD since the 97-98 super El Niño. 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

The very strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole event persists, characterised by cooler waters to the northwest of Australia and warmer waters further west. Values of the IOD index over the past fortnight have strengthened, and the latest value of +1.76 °C is the strongest positive weekly value since at least 2001.

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like we have the strongest +IOD since the 97-98 super El Niño. 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

The very strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole event persists, characterised by cooler waters to the northwest of Australia and warmer waters further west. Values of the IOD index over the past fortnight have strengthened, and the latest value of +1.76 °C is the strongest positive weekly value since at least 2001.

 

 

 

94-95 and 97-98 winters were both big duds around here...

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14 hours ago, forkyfork said:

at least 6 months until it's this warm again

you'll easily put up 90 this March, maybe 90's

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40 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

94-95 and 97-98 winters were both big duds around here...

The IOD is  just 1 piece of the puzzle going forward this year.

How will the IOD interact with the ENSO? + IOD events usually occur with with El Niño’s. We currently also have a more Nino-like -SOI. There is a very strong +PMM and +NPM. While ENSO is currently neutral, some warming has been occurring in recent weeks. What if any influence will it have in the MJO?  What about the stratosphere and phase of the NAO?

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

94-95 and 97-98 winters were both big duds around here...

Those two were also east based el nino years. Which we don't have this year. Plus, everything @bluewave mentioned. 

1994

Bhg6JLL.gif

 

1997

mnGhjNq.gif

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