• Member Statistics

    16,113
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    dhubbard
    Newest Member
    dhubbard
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
WxUSAF

Mid-Atlantic First Freeze Contest 2019

Recommended Posts

On 9/28/2019 at 8:55 PM, George BM said:

IAD: 1/20

DCA: 1/20

BWI: 1/20

RIC: 1/20

Oct Precip: 99.76"

Update: 

IAD: 10/25

DCA: 11/03

BWI: 10/25

RIC: 11/03

Oct Precip: 24.76"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oops, no tie-breaker.

But I don;t foresee being tied so there you go. 

Not looking too bad on the long-range charts for an early end to frost-free season, question might be, would all four go at the same time? Takes a fairly potent cold shot to do that, I would assume, with DCA in such a warmed up location and RIC further south.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/10/2019 at 8:57 PM, Roger Smith said:

Oops, no tie-breaker.

But I don;t foresee being tied so there you go. 

Not looking too bad on the long-range charts for an early end to frost-free season, question might be, would all four go at the same time? Takes a fairly potent cold shot to do that, I would assume, with DCA in such a warmed up location and RIC further south.

RIC sits in a pretty good cooling spot, they can hit a freeze pretty early some years when others around don't.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Looks like Saturday morning could be it for some n+w burbs. 

Yeah, I've been looking ahead and forgot to pay much attention to this weekend.  Maybe IAD too?  3k NAM would suggest so.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Croosposting from obs... outside the beltway threat for the 19th;

Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-
Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta-Nelson-
Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Stafford-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Highland-
Eastern Highland-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-
Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton-
Including the cities of Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg,
Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Germantown, Damascus,
Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon,
Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Staunton, Waynesboro,
Stuarts Draft, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville,
Madison, Washington, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Dale City,
Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon,
Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Falmouth,
Warrenton, Turnbull, Hightown, Monterey, Purcellville, Leesburg,
Ashburn, Sterling, Riverton, Brandywine, Franklin, Oak Flat,
Ruddle, and Sugar Grove
315 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures around 33 to 36 degrees resulting in areas
  of frost.

* WHERE...Central Maryland, northern and central Virginia, and
  the Potomac Highlands.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if
  left uncovered.


 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, arlwx said:

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures around 33 to 36 degrees resulting in areas
  of frost.

* WHERE...Central Maryland, northern and central Virginia, and
  the Potomac Highlands.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday.
 

 

Taking the over for 90% of the mentioned areas.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/14/2019 at 8:09 AM, wxdude64 said:

RIC sits in a pretty good cooling spot, they can hit a freeze pretty early some years when others around don't.

Interestingly, RIC reached 37 this morning which is the lowest of the season for all 4 airports. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Interestingly, RIC reached 37 this morning which is the lowest of the season for all 4 airports. 

Those in the know know that RIC usually freezes around BWIs date, not DCAs.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, mattie g said:

I may be mistaken, but I feel like that hasn't been the case the last couple years...that Richmond's first freeze was near the same time as DC's.

DCA has done better relative to its average the last couple years while there has been more fluctuation at RIC. Actually, RIC has been running a 7-10 days later than average lately. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dewpoints stayed up high enough for the airports to (officially) escape freezing this morning.

DCA 44, BWI 39, IAD 34, RIC 39.

But Manassas hit 30 and many Shenandoah Valley freezing obs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, arlwx said:

Dewpoints stayed up high enough for the airports to (officially) escape freezing this morning.

DCA 44, BWI 39, IAD 34, RIC 39.

But Manassas hit 30 and many Shenandoah Valley freezing obs.

IAD actually hit 33F.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, arlwx said:

GFS is claiming cold shots may show up the mornings of 10/31, 1/1, 11/5 and 11/6.

Looks like it will get chilly after Halloween, but gfs clearly has a major cold bias in the long range. Wait until things get inside D5, and show up in the euro, before getting confident.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Looks like it will get chilly after Halloween, but gfs clearly has a major cold bias in the long range. Wait until things get inside D5, and show up in the euro, before getting confident.

On another forum one met claimed the GFS should not even be used.  Stated that by incorporating the GFS into your forecast for your clients it reduces your overall performance and accuracy. I know yesterday I posted about  verification against the Euro, but when I read that comment I was surprised.  Seems the general idea is the GFS  is extremely cold biased, reacts slowly to changes and  when you have time periods such as this where we are transitioning between seasons it does badly.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/23/2019 at 1:36 PM, H2O said:

My entries for all 4: Never

 

This is based on current fall pattern that says summer will continue forever.

solid call so far

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.