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WxUSAF

Mid-Atlantic First Freeze Contest 2019

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Ggem and gfs just casually 17F apart for Saturday morning. Ggem has bwi down to 26, gfs at 43. Last nights euro was 35.

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From the latest LWX forecast:

(snip)

As winds subside tonight, radiational cooling will be excellent.
With dewpoints in the 20s-lower 30s, stage set for a possible freeze
everywhere except urban downtowns/near the Bay/Potomac. Will issue a
Freeze Watch for area where growing season continues as forecast
lows at or below freezing areawide except as noted above.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure this weekend, with a reinforcing trough axis/surface
cold front Saturday night. Will be struggling to reach 50 degrees
Sunday. If the growing season doesnt end by Saturday morning, Sunday
night`s lows will likely do it. There could also be some upslope
snow showers Saturday night-Sunday morning as well.
 

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And from AKQ:

(snip)

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Thursday...

Sunny and much cooler Fri with highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Around 60 is possible near the coast. Expect breezy conditions
in the morning, but winds will decrease by afternoon as the high
builds in and the pres gradient relaxes. Cool high pres will
bring the coldest night of the season to date Fri night/Sat
morning. Lows around freezing (well) inland...m-u30s central to
lower to mid 40s along the coast. Potential frost/freeze
headlines will be contemplated by proceeding shifts as we get
closer.

Continued cool and dry on Sat w/ highs in the upper 50s to
lowers 60s. Another weak front pushed south late Sat night
bringing another sot of cool air and colder temps Sunday with
high only in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Thursday...

Cool high pressure becomes centered over the area Sunday evening-
Sunday night before moving offshore by Mon aftn. Sun night looks
like the coldest night of the season (so far), with lows in the low-
mid 30s inland/upper 30s-mid 40s close to the immediate coast. Will
continue to monitor the possibility of a freeze (mainly W of I-95).
 

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12 minutes ago, yoda said:

DC and BWI and IAD all under Freeze Warnings for tonight... if they don't hit 32 tonight, they probably will tomorrow night

@WxUSAF better get those charts ready lol

Ready and waiting. I bet IAD and BWI hit tonight or Monday morning . Maybe RIC too. DCA probably waits until next weekend .

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Dulles hit 32 on 2 Nov at 3:52 am.

BWI was at 33.

The DCA heat island was at 40.

Richmond at 37.

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45 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Weather.gov pages I use to look at the airport obs stopped updating around midnight. Weird. Anyone have another link?

That is odd. WxUnderground has the hourly report (bottom of the page linked), but I doubt they have access to any max/mins in between.

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/md/baltimore/KBWI

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GFS is claiming next freeze chances for DCA and RIC start next weekend, with a strong likelihood of freezing by the middle of the following week.

That said, it IS the GFS...

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I would keep an eye on RIC tomorrow morning. AKQ currently has the airport reaching 33°F. Also, the low this morning was 34°F, which was a degree colder than the forecast and also colder than yesterday morning's 35°F low. 

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On 11/2/2019 at 9:34 AM, WxUSAF said:

@biodhokie and @tplbge tied for  the lead with a departure of 2 days, with @biodhokie hitting BWI exactly.  @Stormpc next with a departure of 3 days.  If DCA and RIC hit next Saturday as looks likely with the forecast, @biodhokie would win with @yoda coming in 2nd.  

Fake facts.  Everyone knows I won

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

RIC hitting today changes things. If DCA hits Saturday, @yoda and @mappy would tie. If DCA hits Friday, @MN Transplant wins outright.

LOL i don't even recall what I picked. 

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LWX is no longer issuing Freeze Warnings for anyone in the CWA until next Spring... saying growing season is over for all

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1021 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2019

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure has moved offshore this morning and winds have
started to shift southerly over our region. Most locations
radiated very well earlier in the night, dropping to freezing
or below freezing, including counties that had a Freeze Warning
in effect. Therefore, the growing season has now ended for the
entire NWS Baltimore/Washington forecast area. Frost and freeze
headlines will no longer be issued by this office until Spring
2020.

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If I had gone with my guesstimate of climo….

BWI//IAD Halloween

DCA/RIC Veterans Day

I might be slightly close.

 

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