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September Weather Discussion 2019


dryslot
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5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

September neggy departure all but eliminated. Down to a palty -0.2F now after being -2.6F only 7-8 days ago.  That's how you flip the switch to a TORCH!

Departures from the past week have been pretty decent:

Selected ACIS climate map

 

I remember back in August I was saying I think September could be the warmest on record across many sites...obviously that is not panning out...and not even close. I thought the pattern we've seen the past week was going to be more predominant this month but it didn't work out that way...delayed but not denied I guess.

 

Selected ACIS climate map

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And no matter what the temp is, anytime you have +15 or more for highs...:.that is a torch. 

THIS!!!

Although this is why the term torch is kinda stupid...there is no scientific definition to it so it's completely open to interpretation. Person A may think torch only applies to a temperature threshold (say 90+) while person B applies it to a deviation from the average. 

At the end of the day it should really be applied to a deviation. 

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

THIS!!!

Although this is why the term torch is kinda stupid...there is no scientific definition to it so it's completely open to interpretation. Person A may think torch only applies to a temperature threshold (say 90+) while person B applies it to a deviation from the average. 

At the end of the day it should really be applied to a deviation. 

It’s all relative. 55 in winter is not hot or sweaty and doesn’t feel like summer wx, but it’s a torch. 82-87 in late September is a torch. Consider yourself lucky you aren’t 300 miles SW this month. 

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

THIS!!!

Although this is why the term torch is kinda stupid...there is no scientific definition to it so it's completely open to interpretation. Person A may think torch only applies to a temperature threshold (say 90+) while person B applies it to a deviation from the average. 

At the end of the day it should really be applied to a deviation. 

From what I’ve observed over the years, it seems to be a term that weather weenie types often use for dramatic effect.  I think they’ve tried to define it here at times, but you’re absolutely right in that some people use it in a threshold manner, and some use it to describe a degree of deviation.  Throw in the spin factor and selective use of whatever climate sites people quote to serve their agenda, and you get a beautifully pointless weenie brew of never ending debate about the term.

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16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

THIS!!!

Although this is why the term torch is kinda stupid...there is no scientific definition to it so it's completely open to interpretation. Person A may think torch only applies to a temperature threshold (say 90+) while person B applies it to a deviation from the average. 

At the end of the day it should really be applied to a deviation. 

There's some seasonal differences, IMO.  10° AN in July/August is pretty torchy, sniffing mid 90s in some SNE locales.  At the other end, I'm not sure +15 in mid January warrants the term, especially in colder climates.  Is 34° on January 15 at CAR a torch?  (Not that it really matters  :weenie:)

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9 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

From what I’ve observed over the years, it seems to be a term that weather weenie types often use for dramatic effect.  I think they’ve tried to define it here at times, but you’re absolutely right in that some people use it in a threshold manner, and some use it to describe a degree of deviation.  Throw in the spin factor and selective use of whatever climate sites people quote to serve their agenda, and you get a beautifully pointless weenie brew of never ending debate about the term.

Well said. 

5 minutes ago, tamarack said:

There's some seasonal differences, IMO.  10° AN in July/August is pretty torchy, sniffing mid 90s in some SNE locales.  At the other end, I'm not sure +15 in mid January warrants the term, especially in colder climates.  Is 34° on January 15 at CAR a torch?  (Not that it really matters  :weenie:)

subsequently why the term is stupid :D 

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9 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Tomorrow looks up in the air in NNE.  Likely going to be cloudy, raw, and rainy up here while the WeatherWiz and LL are basking in jorts in 83 degree sun. 

Could be an opportunity for a few strong t'storms to work into southern VT, NW MA...maybe even southern NH. 

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yup and you are correct that torch temps are all relative to the seasonal climo. 

 I am going to go out on a limb and call for a torch third week of December.   

Torch is a funny word...the problem I have with it these days it is used too generously so it kind of loses its punch. Torch is used for both +20 type departures and mundane +6 departures.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Torch is a funny word...the problem I have with it these days it is used too generously so it kind of loses its punch. Torch is used for both +20 type departures and mundane +6 departures.

Yeah part of the game though... 89F at BDL in July was a torch and so is 89F at BDL in September lol.  

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17 hours ago, dendrite said:

Just noticed the GFS is only mixing up to H9 on Saturday despite sun and decent SW flow. I know we have some WAA coming in over the top, but my hunch is we mix higher than what it's trying to spit out. I'd bump those MOS numbers at least 5F which would push BDL to 85+.

The GFS with dubious boundary layer kinematic handling ....?   no f way man -

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Give me a torch any day in the 2nd half of October. Avg highs are in the 50s at that point.

Either that or give me a deep freeze where snow is possible....none of this "near normal" stuff.

It would be a win-win scenario if 50s was because we were always averaging 100 + 0, huh

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