September Weather Discussion 2019

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The GFS with dubious boundary layer kinematic handling ....?   no f way man -

I think I briefly mentioned yesterday the lack of mixing being shown on the GFS. 12z run today at BDL tomorrow only seems to mix to just shy of 4,000' and yields a temperatures just a bit above 80. I would think we should be able to mix pretty close to at least 4500' which pushes temps well into the mid 80's. If we can get closer to 5,000 that gets BDL to 90.

Both NAM and GFS have a decent inversion from like 4500 -5000'

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

A week too early.  The Grinch is rarely denied.

Avoided it in 2017 which was nice....to go along with Xmas day snowfall.

Better chance than recently for avoiding it IMHO given we're going to be neutral ENSO.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

A week too early.  The Grinch is rarely denied.

[weatherwiz]

Going to start a low CAPE/high shear convective threat on Sunday for Wednesday. Sorta kinda like the look. Now that we're getting into the fall season we transition from big CAPE severe events to big shear severe events. I always have mixed emotions with these setups. 

[Typhoon Tip]

39 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Going to start a low CAPE/high shear convective threat on Sunday for Wednesday. Sorta kinda like the look. Now that we're getting into the fall season we transition from big CAPE severe events to big shear severe events. I always have mixed emotions with these setups. 

Mm... I'd say probably should hold off until next Thursday - perhaps than we'll get a handle on how to handle convection east of the Hudson' two days ago -

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm... I'd say probably should hold off until next Thursday - perhaps than we'll get a handle on how to handle convection east of the Hudson'

You know what's depressing...looking at the CAPE maps through the entire run and starting to see no big CAPE across the country  

My favorite thing to do with the 12z/0z runs is animate the CAPE maps during the summer. 

[dryslot]

Its to bad they scuttled the WOTY award, We would have several candidates come right out of the SNE region.

[weathafella]

40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Avoided it in 2017 which was nice....to go along with Xmas day snowfall.

Better chance than recently for avoiding it IMHO given we're going to be neutral ENSO.

And remember the modeling was hideous 5 days out!

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

And remember the modeling was hideous 5 days out!

When we were at the pre-Xmas GTG that year at Clarke's, I remember we were sitting there at the bar with Scooter and we said "you know, if we didn't know any better, that 12/23 event looks like an ice storm in the making instead of a 55F torching cutter...that just doesn't look like the type of pattern where a storm should cut"....sure enough, the models started backing off the cutter idea within a run or two and it ended up as a pretty good ice event...even into Boston. Then that Xmas storm started gaining legs too once we got closer.

Heck, even a couple days out, the Xmas threat was still pretty precarious. I remember some congrats Berkshires/NW CT posts pretty close in.

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its to bad they scuttled the WOTY award, We would have several candidates come right out of the SNE region.

That was always a ton of fun. The sub-forums though sort of killed that off IMO. 

[weathafella]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

When we were at the pre-Xmas GTG that year at Clarke's, I remember we were sitting there at the bar with Scooter and we said "you know, if we didn't know any better, that 12/23 event looks like an ice storm in the making instead of a 55F torching cutter...that just doesn't look like the type of pattern where a storm should cut"....sure enough, the models started backing off the cutter idea within a run or two and it ended up as a pretty good ice event...even into Boston. Then that Xmas storm started gaining legs too once we got closer.

Heck, even a couple days out, the Xmas threat was still pretty precarious. I remember some congrats Berkshires/NW CT posts pretty close in.

Yup-that was a decent winter.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That was always a ton of fun. The sub-forums though sort of killed that off IMO. 

All in jest, and, Yes it did.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, dryslot said:

All in jest, and, Yes it did.

I remember when Kevin won once and was pissed  

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Yup-that was a decent winter.

If February hadn't been so warm, I probably would have given it an A. That kind of tainted it a bit....but that winter had very strong bookends. Good December and early January and epic March.

[weatherwiz]

Thank God storm mode will be linear and things will be parallel to the flow...otherwise this could have been a nasty tornado outbreak over a localized area across NE KS into MO and IL

[dryslot]

69/45, With a light NW wind, What a great afternoon out there.

[KoalaBeer]

Those few lavender colored spots on this snowfall map  I also love the "wind damage to docks and marinas" statement. Most storms of this strength the water has to be pretty much all iced over up there. Great AFD by Missoula NWS as well.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDMSO&wfo=MSO

Snow won`t start to 
  accumulate in most of the valleys until Saturday night. Due to the 
  warm ground temperatures from the recent summer

When the strong winds and cold air start to interact with the 
  relatively warm waters of Flathead Lake, it makes the perfect setup 
  for big, damaging waves on the lake. It`s very rare to have waves 
  6 ft or more on Flathead Lake, but it`s possible this Saturday.

Quick question for anyone though. Does the cold air interacting with warm water make the waves bigger as the discussion implies? Not sure I've heard that before. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

Those few lavender colored spots on this snowfall map  I also love the "wind damage to docks and marinas" statement. Most storms of this strength the water has to be pretty much all iced over up there. Great AFD by Missoula NWS as well.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDMSO&wfo=MSO

Snow won`t start to 
  accumulate in most of the valleys until Saturday night. Due to the 
  warm ground temperatures from the recent summer

When the strong winds and cold air start to interact with the 
  relatively warm waters of Flathead Lake, it makes the perfect setup 
  for big, damaging waves on the lake. It`s very rare to have waves 
  6 ft or more on Flathead Lake, but it`s possible this Saturday.

Quick question for anyone though. Does the cold air interacting with warm water make the waves bigger as the discussion implies? Not sure I've heard that before. 

 

The best explanation I can come up with is that mixing will be better over the warmer water with cold air above it...so if you already have some pretty steep lapse rates with the CAA in the cold sector of the storm, those low level lapse rates will be enhanced even more over the warm water creating better localized winds and as a result, higher waves?

[Typhoon Tip]

This Day 6 Euro is a terrific ice-storm look ....

 

 

 

 

.... in 2 months

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

Those few lavender colored spots on this snowfall map  I also love the "wind damage to docks and marinas" statement. Most storms of this strength the water has to be pretty much all iced over up there. Great AFD by Missoula NWS as well.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDMSO&wfo=MSO

Snow won`t start to 
  accumulate in most of the valleys until Saturday night. Due to the 
  warm ground temperatures from the recent summer

When the strong winds and cold air start to interact with the 
  relatively warm waters of Flathead Lake, it makes the perfect setup 
  for big, damaging waves on the lake. It`s very rare to have waves 
  6 ft or more on Flathead Lake, but it`s possible this Saturday.

Quick question for anyone though. Does the cold air interacting with warm water make the waves bigger as the discussion implies? Not sure I've heard that before. 

 

I think it has to do with density...cold air being much more dense moving over the warm air just above the lakes is less dense so it increases the degree of force. then obviously strong winds are going to get the water moving and perhaps the temp gradient will yield some decent lapse rates and mixing...similar to LES. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, mreaves said:

The quality and precision of your reading seems to have declined a bit. 

No idea what you are talking about.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Its to bad they scuttled the WOTY award, We would have several candidates come right out of the SNE region.

Never forget my epic showdown with BrickTamland from se forum back in 2009. I took the crown

[mreaves]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No idea what you are talking about.

Should have been readings, as in measurements.  You guys are usually so precise with precip totals etc.  I thought "I got alot of rain" was funny.

[KoalaBeer]

Interesting stuff. Thanks ORH and Wiz for the explanations. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, mreaves said:

Should have been readings, as in measurements.  You guys are usually so precise with precip totals etc.  I thought "I got alot of rain" was funny.

Oh....my gauge is crap, and I didn't care to research it. Just poured like hell for a few hours last evening.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Never forget my epic showdown with BrickTaklmland from se forum back in 2009. I took the crown

Yup, Brick was a good one, Ant was another.

[Typhoon Tip]

Koe'  

it has to do with low-level lapse rates over water.  When CAA is occurring, the warm water enhances instability and helps 'over-turn'.  This restoring/convective processing mixes the environment proficiently enough such that stronger winds can come down and interact with the sea-surface and enhances wave action ... 

 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Avoided it in 2017 which was nice....to go along with Xmas day snowfall.

Better chance than recently for avoiding it IMHO given we're going to be neutral ENSO.

In 21 years I've had 13 Grinches (snow-wrecking rains during the period Dec. 21-28, my subjective definition) plus 3 more with the same horrible wx but bare ground at the solstice.  Of the 5 non-Grinches, only 2017 meets my (undefined) criteria as an anti-Grinch, though 2010 was close.  2018 made up for 2017 with the warmth and 2.17" RA, Grinchiest one of all.  2015 was a bit warmer but a lot less RA and no snow to melt.

If February hadn't been so warm, I probably would have given it an A. That kind of tainted it a bit....but that winter had very strong bookends. Good December and early January and epic March.

2016-17 matches 1960-61 as the only winters in which I've experienced 2 storms of 20"+, and like that earlier wither there was a 3rd biggie.  The Pi Day storm brought only 15.5" (of 7:1 denseness and wind pack) but it was just my 4th event that met blizzard criteria at my tree-sheltered location.  (Others were 12/6-7/03, 12/21-22/08, 1/27-28/15.)

[CoastalWx]

4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

This summer you’ve definitely aligned more towards DIT... enjoying heat and humidity, trolling and now making a case for hyperbole!  What’s happening?!

Well two things. I didn’t mind the heat and humidity as it’s much easier for outdoor activities. Also, as we all mentioned, it really wasn’t so intense like 2018. That was a brutal summer. At least we got a break now and then, especially August. The second thing, don’t get me too confused with Kevin lol. The weather has been on the boring side, so I’m just clowning around. I try not to be too serious in life unless I have to be. 

I finally spent some time cleaning out my attachments, so I can up my posting game a bit. Back to science soo enough. 

[Ginx snewx]

Going to be weird turning on the propane tanks at 85 degrees.