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bluewave

August 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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15 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

That’s a really strong line looks great on radar and it’s still strengthening.

B7431637-59C2-43F9-8D30-7390CBECD00C.jpeg

I wouldn’t say it’s strong or strengthening. It’s a cluster of showers and storms which are waning in intensity but expanding in coverage a bit. 

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28 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Storms are fading out...not sure we see much 

Storms weakening like usual before making it to the South Shore. Hoping we get rain soon it hasn't rained in 11 days here.

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36 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Storms are fading out...not sure we see much 

Yep hit a wall and then died once they moved this way. Typical, like so many times, and the flood advisory issued by OKX at 11:08 doesn’t look good either.  

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14 minutes ago, LIWeatherGuy29 said:

Storms weakening like usual before making it to the South Shore. Hoping we get rain soon it hasn't rained in 11 days here.

Same. Very dry here.

4 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Yep hit a wall and then died once they moved this way. Typical, like so many times, and the flood advisory issued by OKX at 11:08 doesn’t look good either.  

Yea saw that coming lol. It hasn’t rained in almost 2 weeks. Lawns be brown. Helluva way to run a flood advisory 

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Lots of flooding in the saddlebrook wood ridge nj.

best guess 3-4 inches of rain in 35 minutes.

sorta surprised no flash flood warning.

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Next 8 days averaging 77degs., or 1deg. AN.      I think this 8 day average may go negative soon after a long positive stretch.

74.6* here at 6am.   76,6* by 8am.     81.4* by Noon.

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The ridge that dominated the Northeast with record heat in July will take a break for a while.

 

EF923E96-3C92-44BB-BFEC-E4348E348528.thumb.png.bfbe8e3a835f0842e7a49801e255be2c.png

22697F63-99ED-4579-BC43-5DA031BCB29F.thumb.png.094cac876e49b2ec7904e62e10b30e82.png

D75996EB-AFDE-48E5-86FF-A4435D30BEBE.png.2453fd0e8f66ce763b0a1e303f00dcbe.png

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9 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Any chance this private met is JB? Way too many things out on the table to say early start to winter. Arctic has been torched this summer. Who knows if that will cause a lag.

Not JB, and I lost respect for JB about 12 years ago.  If I were a met who had to issue a seasonal forecast for the upcoming winter I be rather nervous about it. With the way things are going lately globally in terms of weather patterns and extreme events,  I think it is almost impossible to get it right.  

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Looks like we have a shot at 90 in the warmer spots today and then again Wed (8/7) -Thu (8/8) (pending storms/clouds).

Beyond there, cooler 8/10 - 8/14.  I think we'll see a back and forth beyond there with a porgoression to  a warmer regime.  We'll see how cool it gets and how strong and long heat can push back into the region 8/15 - later in August.

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8 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Flood advisory and I did not see a single drop of rain. Life on the south shore in summer 

.02” in Muttontown and .01” in Syosset.  What a bust that flood advisory was.

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11AM Roundup

 

ACY: 86
New Bnswk: 85
PHL: 85
JFK: 84
BLM: 83
EWR: 83
ISP: 82
TEB: 82
TTN: 82
LGA: 81
NYC: 79

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1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

11AM Roundup

 

ACY: 86
New Bnswk: 85
PHL: 85
JFK: 84
BLM: 83
EWR: 83
ISP: 82
TEB: 82
TTN: 82
LGA: 81
NYC: 79

Something definitely wrong with the Central Park thermometer 

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9 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Something definitely wrong with the Central Park thermometer 

Rained there last night.  Nothing wrong with the equipment or any sensors just poorly placed and a poor representation of the city area.

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Updated forecasts

Monday: Still looking nice and dry.

Tuesday: The models seem to be coming into agreement here that there will be some rain on Tuesday. The GFS shows light showers spread out over several hours, the Euro has a heavier but shorter lived storm. Ultimately the two both come out to about a quarter-inch of rain.

Wednesday: Still likely to be the wettest day of next week. The timing is still up in the air. It’s midday storms on the Euro and a late night rain on the GFS. The Euro is much wetter on this than the GFS.

 

 

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

he ridge that dominated the Northeast with record heat in July will take a break for a while.

 

Not saying what happens in mid August has any effect on the month of September as a whole but this is to a degree opposite last August when it was so warm and dew points super high.   Looks like some changes in the Pacific too taking place. Even the Nino is still alive. 

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1 hour ago, NycStormChaser said:

Most of areas that saw storms last night should see them storms again this evening. 

Last night I got caught in some of the heaviest rain I have seen in nnj in years.

flash flooding was ridiculous. Town sewer holes had water shooting  up in the air like a fountain.  Towns streets were rivers in certain areas with cars stranded.

weather today is  too nice out to produce a repeat.

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11 minutes ago, Animal said:

Last night I got caught in some of the heaviest rain I have seen in nnj in years.

flash flooding was ridiculous. Town sewer holes had water shooting  up in the air like a fountain.  Towns streets were rivers in certain areas with cars stranded.

weather today is  too nice out to produce a repeat.

We will see. Both the HRRR and 3kNAM have storms across the NYC Metro today. 3k NAM is more aggressive. Storms already firing up with some hail in the Hudson Valley. ZjcIT3v.jpg

 

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2 hours ago, frd said:

Not saying what happens in mid August has any effect on the month of September as a whole but this is to a degree opposite last August when it was so warm and dew points super high.   Looks like some changes in the Pacific too taking place. Even the Nino is still alive. 

3 top 5 warmest Augusts in 4 years was a very impressive streak. It appears we are backing off a bit from the extreme August heat of recent years.

Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2016 81.6 0
2 2018 81.0 0
3 2005 80.9 0
4 2001 79.8 0
5 2015 79.3 0
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