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George BM

July Discobs 2019

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heavy rains and lots of lightning last evening. power went out a few times. couple transformers in the area blew. good stuff. 

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3 minutes ago, frd said:

Hopefully it will be. The ingredients are there for a more region-wide rainfall. I was lucky last night to pick up some rain, storm  went warned. Incredible lightening and very heavy rain, also experienced a gust front as well prior ro the rain. 

Good luck to you with the rain ! 

Had one of those pulse type storms Saturday evening, was driving home and 2 mins from home road was closed due to about a 1/4 miles swath of large trees down across the road. Was quite the scene...figured it was a little microburst? Anyways would be great for the lawns to get some nice rainfall totals to go along with the upcoming cool down!!!

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Interesting temps overnight. Bottomed out at 72 around 2am then rose to 82 by 7am. Was hoping for a bit of a cooler morning but that'll have to wait until tomorrow!

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16 minutes ago, mappy said:

heavy rains and lots of lightning last evening. power went out a few times. couple transformers in the area blew. good stuff. 

We got shutout down here but no worries.  I've only had to do minimal watering of the garden this year with the regular 1-2" storms every week or so.  Hopefully later today and tomorrow will be the same.

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12 minutes ago, peribonca said:

Interesting temps overnight. Bottomed out at 72 around 2am then rose to 82 by 7am. Was hoping for a bit of a cooler morning but that'll have to wait until tomorrow!

Just like the 2012 derecho...there was no airmass change (fropa) so the temps went right back up to the mid 70s to low 80s overnight.  

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I take the WPC heavy rainfall outlooks with a huge grain of salt, but hopefully it's right this time.

Quote
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
414 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019
 
Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Jul 22 2019 - 12Z Tue Jul 23 2019 

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS 
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...

...Lower Mississippi Valley...Tennessee Valley...Central 
Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic...
An expansive slight and moderate risk area was maintained this 
period along and ahead of the surface cold front forecast to push 
east and southeast from the Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley 
into the Lower Mississippi Valley...Central Appalachians and Mid 
Atlantic.   There is a strong model signal for the potential for 
widespread heavy precipitation along and ahead of this front where 
pw values are forecast to remain 1.5 to2+ standard deviations 
above the mean.  The associated amplifying mid to upper level trof 
will also provide favorable right entrance region jet dynamics 
along the boundary during the first half of the upcoming day 1 
time period.  The primary change from the previous outlook was to 
expand the moderate risk area that was primarily over the Mid 
Atlantic farther to the southwest across WV to the eastern 
KY/Southwest VA/northeast TN area.  This was to cover where the 
model consensus for heavy totals coincided with lower ffg values. 
These areas are also where the higher href neighborhood 
probabilities for 2 and 3"+ amounts are...80 to 90%+ for 2" and 50 
to 80% for 3". 

 

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13 hours ago, 87storms said:

this lightning is something else.

I was just on the southeastern side of that cell. Even with the limited visibility from my house (didn't get a chance to go up to Ft. Reno) I could see numerous ground strokes. Can only imagine what it must have been like to be directly under it!

Hopefully upper NW bullseyes today. MBY has been fringed a lot this summer, except for the g/d hailstorm several weeks back that caused $1500 or so damage to my car (at least that was the estimate, you have to look pretty hard to see more than one or two dents.

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6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Derecho-redux - got it. 

lol...we'll probably never see another event like that in our lifetime.  That and Isabel were top notch events likely to never be surpassed.

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I take the WPC heavy rainfall outlooks with a huge grain of salt, but hopefully it's right this time.

 

The FFW got extended to most of the LWX CWA this morning as well

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Nice bright blue skies this morning... should help with the instability department as well as getting our temps back into the 90s today

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7 hours ago, Jebman said:

What are you doin down in Currituck North Carolina? You on vacation or did you move down there for good? You really dont want to try and pull a Jebman Special and move south where it never snows lmao.........

I made a permanent move to North Carolina. Closing on the sale of the house in Woodbridge next week. I am gone for good. Hopefully I get to experience a few more tropical events being that I'm right on the coast in the northern Outer Banks. I also don't have to fret and worry about every disappointing snow event that misses us. We just don't get any thing much down there. Whatever they get it's a bonus. I will still follow this for him though since I've known most of these people for 15 years or so. Plus it's the most entertaining.

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2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

We got shutout down here but no worries.  I've only had to do minimal watering of the garden this year with the regular 1-2" storms every week or so.  Hopefully later today and tomorrow will be the same.

i have no idea how much rain i got. i need to replace the batteries on the backyard station. usually the power cuts out overnight, but yesterday with storms coming in, the solar power died by 830. right as it began to rain. 

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46 minutes ago, yoda said:

Nice bright blue skies this morning... should help with the instability department as well as getting our temps back into the 90s today

Hope so...HRRR is weak sauce across the entire MOD flood risk area.

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Updated AFD mentions that an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out this afternoon in the strongest storms

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The lightning shots in this thread are great.  I've always loved lightning on still humid nights after a hot day.  I swear that on humid days the light shows are more vivid...wonder if it's more CCN in the towers yielding better charges?  Maybe @MN Transplant can shed some light on that?

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Just now, AmericanWxFreak said:

Captured by my friend and chaser Joey Krastel last night in Kingsville. Puts my clip to shame lol

Nope, yours was way better.

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Looks like we'll probably need a watch box soon?

Quote
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1251 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2019

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...
  NORTHERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 145 PM EDT.

* AT 1251 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MOUNT LENA,
  OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF FREDERICK, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME TREES AND LARGE BRANCHES 
           TO FALL. THIS COULD INJURE THOSE OUTDOORS, AS WELL AS 
           DAMAGE HOMES AND VEHICLES. ROADWAYS MAY BECOME BLOCKED BY 
           DOWNED TREES. LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. 
           UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS MAY BECOME PROJECTILES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  THURMONT, EMMITSBURG, TANEYTOWN, WALKERSVILLE, WOLFSVILLE,
  MYERSVILLE, WOODSBORO, UNION BRIDGE, HARNEY, NEW MIDWAY,
  LADIESBURG, UTICA, PLEASANT WALK, ROCKY RIDGE, BOLIVAR, DETOUR,
  KEYSVILLE, KEYMAR, GRACEHAM AND LEWISTOWN.

 

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like we'll probably need a watch box soon?

 

but i thought HRRR was meh?

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39 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The lightning shots in this thread are great.  I've always loved lightning on still humid nights after a hot day.  I swear that on humid days the light shows are more vivid...wonder if it's more CCN in the towers yielding better charges?  Maybe @MN Transplant can shed some light on that?

Honestly, anything I would have would be guesses on the CCN question.  You want active updrafts and ice to ice collisions.  That certainly points to the environment taking precedent.  There are studies out there about increase aerosol loading leading to more lightning, but whether that effect is major or minor I think is still uncertain.

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4 minutes ago, yoda said:

but i thought HRRR was meh?

 

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It is

 

Quite simply, there is enough juice in the atmosphere that (as we saw yesterday) we are likely to see some wind reports.  Even if this isn't a widespread severe day, I think they go with a box.

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10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

 

 

Quite simply, there is enough juice in the atmosphere that (as we saw yesterday) we are likely to see some wind reports.  Even if this isn't a widespread severe day, I think they go with a box.

Well that answers the question:  https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md1568.html

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12 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

 

 

Quite simply, there is enough juice in the atmosphere that (as we saw yesterday) we are likely to see some wind reports.  Even if this isn't a widespread severe day, I think they go with a box.

There was quite a large amount of wind reports yesterday with no watch and a really meh MCD

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