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Typhoon Tip

July pattern(s) and discussion

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23 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Dews dropped in.  85/70.  Hasn’t been much relief from them 

Yesterday was spectacular,  are you in a swamp?

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39 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Screenshot-20190714-075034-Gallery.jpg

MEX rip and read?

GFSX MOS (MEX)
 KBDL   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   7/14/2019  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 SUN  14| MON 15| TUE 16| WED 17| THU 18| FRI 19| SAT 20| SUN 21 CLIMO
 X/N  89| 62  88| 63  90| 70  88| 70  86| 71  95| 73  90| 63  85 62 85
 TMP  79| 70  78| 71  81| 76  79| 73  80| 76  85| 78  80| 70  76      
 DPT  61| 59  58| 61  63| 67  71| 68  70| 71  71| 68  65| 60  60      
 CLD  PC| CL  CL| CL  CL| PC  OV| OV  OV| PC  PC| PC  PC| PC  PC      
 WND  14|  7   8|  4  10|  9   7|  5  10| 10  18| 15  12|  6   8      
 P12   5|  3   2|  3   2|  9  37| 45  51| 19  23| 30  22| 14  12 21 20
 P24    |      3|      3|     37|     65|     34|     49|     25    31
 Q12   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   1|  1   4|  0   0|  0    |             
 Q24    |      0|      0|      0|      3|      0|       |             
 T12   0|  0   1|  1   6|  3  21| 26  28| 10  25| 22  14|  8  11      
 T24    |  0    |  1    |  7    | 35    | 40    | 38    | 14          
                                                                   
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18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea how can you beat yesterday mid July 85/61

 

Took my niece visiting from Poland on a Hudson cruise around Manhattan, 911 Memorial, and then up to the One World observatory. What a picture perfect summer day. This has been one of the nicest summers I can recall in a quite some time. 

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yesterday was spectacular,  are you in a swamp?

2-1/2" of rain evaporating will do that.  Dews were in the mid/upper 60s.

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Mmm ... I don't like marginal set-ups/support  (synoptically) for expecting heat in New England. 

Completely different phenomenon ... but thinking iffy big heat synoptics for New England will ever succeed ... is similar to springs and BDs.  Anyone who thinks that will succeed is somewhere between naive and hard-headed. 

Heat in general ( and I'm not talking 91 F backyard variety  ... I mean big numbers) has too many reasons where IF it can it WILL fail. The models just aren't good enough to preclude where they should be doing so... May sound frustrated, and frankly.. it is.  But, it does stack up against statistics - there needs to always be a less correction factor for any warmth signal here.  Our region reserves warm busts for 32.1 in the winter.  

Having ranted ... yeah, it's funny that we are only D4 and D5 from the door stop of potentially big numbers and the Euro and GGEM are still trying to do that...

The GFS's a whole 'nother annoyance.  It's just gone right back to the May thing ... with that least excuse imaginable to carve out a lower Maritime trough and lock us in summer-death NW deep layer flow apparently as eternal damnation...   I don't trust that any more or less than the other idea...

I'd just got 87 to 92 and let the chips fall where they may...

 

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Dew point is nasty here 72. The two folks who love this weather come on out.  I'm splitting wood you can help stack.

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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Where’s the Davis pics?

Davis dews and tarmac temps are what summer is made of.  

71/64 currently up here.  Feels like summer.

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Davis dews and tarmac temps are what summer is made of.  

71/64 currently up here.  Feels like summer.

Yup, Summer has arrived, 81/62 with a nice breeze out of the WNW.

  • Confused 1

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14 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

BTV with a filthy +3.8 for July

 Nice. That’s only +0.8 when you subtract out the 3F for the newly developed UHI.

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45 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The key takeaway, sun...lots of sun.

3k NAM has isolated storms this afternoon..

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9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The key takeaway, sun...lots of sun.

Too many clouds.... that NW flow clouded over fast with the orographics. 

959C2296-6847-4210-80DA-16D476648F07.jpeg.b26f3a3dc0e31703b317e7630894ff8a.jpeg

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22 minutes ago, dendrite said:

 Nice. That’s only +0.8 when you subtract out the 3F for the newly developed UHI.

Ha yeah they run a healthy 2-3F higher in departures than MVL/MPV/1V4 pretty much year round.

The others radiate and BTV doesn’t but that should be baked into climo already.

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Hmm... big H500 mb changes on the GFS operational over late week/weekend...    Cannot honestly say I thought that run was going to do this -

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Ah... we'll see -   If the 12z Euro and GGEM continue their heat band wagon.

Thing is, the GFS' 500 mb evolution would also support a BD into central/eastern regions early Saturday...but, it would likely be of shallow variety, and given the scale of that ridge amplifying/particular geometries there in exerting from the west ..the flow would wash it out and probably if one did occur you'd end up with a 5pm high in S. NH...    Gee - maybe I should actually go look at the surface charts now - haha.

Anyway, just the 500 mb looks like an impressive heat signal for the lower Lakes to upper MA and at least as far N as SNE...  late Thur thru Sun

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5-day heat wave, 92-96 style, with lolly 98's...  

Thursday's unrealistically cool given that synopsis ... otherwise that makes it into the running. My guess is ... typical SW flow cloud contamination, which usually ends up with more sun intervals than modeled. 

 

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