SACRUS Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 21 minutes ago, Isotherm said: First week of August continues to warm on the Ecmwf, as wavelengths at this time of year support a connection of geopotential heights Greenland-NE US. 00z euro has multiple days of 90 or greater through the 7th. Betting on warm and wetter than normal has been the way to go. The 8/1 - 8/7 period may see increased storminess, and its still looking like on/around 8/9 into the eek of 8/12 stronger heat will be heading east. Could be some nice storms with active pattern just near or north of the region and any tropical antics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 10AM : ISP: 85 EWR: 85 TEB: 85 BLM: 85 ACY: 85 LGA: 84 JFK: 83 TTN: 83 PHL: 83 NYC: 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Several of our stations are in the top 3 warmest Julys on record through the 28th. Temperature departures are running +2.9 to +4.3. Large area of +3 to +5 from around Chicago to Boston this July. EWR...+2.9 NYC....+2.8 LGA.....+3.7 JFK......+2.9 ISP.......+4.3 BDR.....+3.7 and this is with a -NAO/-AO couplet? That's completely unprecedented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 Upton should definitely issue a rip current advisory. We had a wild end of the day yesterday at Jones beach with numerous rescues one of which I was part of. The long period swells originating from the Southern Hemisphere contain tremendous energy. As a set of waves approaches and then breaks, water is pulled out in a similar way to a tsunami. This effect then creates rip currents. The conditions are very deceiving as it is calm between the sets. Hoping for at least some rain this evening on the uws. It would be nice to continue the trend of not needing to water! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 29, 2019 Author Share Posted July 29, 2019 24 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: and this is with a -NAO/-AO couplet? That's completely unprecedented. This is what happens when you get the strongest Pacific Northwest Jet streak on record for the entire warm season. It pumps the ridge over the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 91, i believe its # 8 for the year, but Wunderground apparently lost a week of data for early July which is unfortunate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Upton should definitely issue a rip current advisory. We had a wild end of the day yesterday at Jones beach with numerous rescues one of which I was part of. The long period swells originating from the Southern Hemisphere contain tremendous energy. As a set of waves approaches and then breaks, water is pulled out in a similar way to a tsunami. This effect then creates rip currents. The conditions are very deceiving as it is calm between the sets. Hoping for at least some rain this evening on the uws. It would be nice to continue the trend of not needing to water! Do you know how long those conditions expected to last? Is it more on south facing shores of LI, or basically the same along the east coast in general? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 Noon Roundup: ACY: 91 TEB: 90 LGA: 90 EWR: 90 BLM: 89 PHL: 89 ISP: 88 TTN: 87 NYC: 87 JFK: 86 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NHEM/animweur.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 1 hour ago, dWave said: Do you know how long those conditions expected to last? Is it more on south facing shores of LI, or basically the same along the east coast in general? I was on Fire Island on Friday and didn't notice anything too terrible. I don't know if it has picked up since, I hope not as we're thinking Montauk on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 90.6 (91) so far for high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 Current temp 93/DP 69/RH 45% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 92 here CNJ in/out of clouds with some storms in NJ/PA border / NYS. 2PM Update; LGA: 92 BLM: 92 EWR: 91 TEB: 91 ACY: 91 PHL: 91 TTN: 89 JFK: 88 NYC: 87 ISP: 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 Pending on clouds we do see a spike of 850's tomorrow near 20-21 C for a 6 hour window - so could see the warmer / metro spots get 95+. Clouds the caveat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 29, 2019 Author Share Posted July 29, 2019 87/75/96 now at JFK. Another day with the dewpoints beating guidance. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=Kjfk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 My latest time lapse video from the Ashokan Reservoir in the Catskill Mountains last evening. Mother Nature gave me some thunderstorms and a beautiful sunset. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVBiVCS-h8o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 90 on the app 93 in my car 91 on nws pick and choose, pick and choose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 93/69 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: Pending on clouds we do see a spike of 850's tomorrow near 20-21 C for a 6 hour window - so could see the warmer / metro spots get 95+. Clouds the caveat. Heat advisory tomorrow for NYC for 2nd consecutive day of 95+ heat indexes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 2 hours ago, uofmiami said: 90.6 (91) so far for high. 90.9 (91) for the high today. I think I am around 7 or 8 90 degree days to date, I'll have to go back and look over my data to confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 4 hours ago, dWave said: Do you know how long those conditions expected to last? Is it more on south facing shores of LI, or basically the same along the east coast in general? South facing shores will have the biggest swells and impacts, but they will be noticeable along the whole east coast. The swell started arriving Saturday and should last through the week with lowering swell periods and thus impacts. It’s those longest period swells that have the most energy. It’s pretty amazing stuff and very rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 i wonder if we'll get storms wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: South facing shores will have the biggest swells and impacts, but they will be noticeable along the whole east coast. The swell started arriving Saturday and should last through the week with lowering swell periods and thus impacts. It’s those longest period swells that have the most energy. It’s pretty amazing stuff and very rare. I'll be in ocean city, MD later this week, I'll see what its like there. Also, dont know if it's related but the water in lower Manhattan around wall st, south st seaport etc is higher than usual today. Its actually spilling over in spots on to the area under the FDR btwn the seaport and ferry terminals. Tourists splashing around in little waves of ankle deep water...not something I'd recommend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 1 hour ago, Isotherm said: 90.9F here today and up to 9 90F days (8 JUL 1 JUN). 93° here today...up to 14, 90° days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: South facing shores will have the biggest swells and impacts, but they will be noticeable along the whole east coast. The swell started arriving Saturday and should last through the week with lowering swell periods and thus impacts. It’s those longest period swells that have the most energy. It’s pretty amazing stuff and very rare. So now you’ve got me curious. Long period swells from the Southern Hemisphere? Where did you read that, I’ve never heard that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 The historic heat that smashed high temperature records in much of western Europe and then Scandinavia will continue to affect Iceland and Greenland over the next several days. In response to the warmth that will likely exceed 3 sigma, Greenland could experience a dramatic decline in surface mass balance (ice melt) that could rival that which occurred in 2012 for the next 5-7 days. Records included: Copenhagen-Roskilde: 86°; Kristiansund, Norway: 84°; Molde, Norway: 84°; Orland Iii, Norway: 84°; Orsta-Volda, Norway: 84°; Soenderborg Lufthavn, Denmark: 86°; Trondheim, Norway: 90°; and, Vigra, Norway: 82°. In addition, high temperatures in Greenland included 64° at Ilulissat and 66° at Kangerlussuaq. Colder than normal conditions will likely persist across western Russia, Finland, and parts of Scandinavia over the next few days. However, the cold has so far been less significant than had been modeled. Earlier today, Vadso, Norway registered a daily record low temperature of 41°. Near record low readings were also recorded at a few locations elsewhere in Scandinavia and also in France. Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied near 100% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied near 100% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 64.8°-65.2°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was +9.23 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.817. A general tendency for blocking could persist through into the first week in August and perhaps beyond that. Should blocking generally persist, a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. In addition, since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. The mean anomaly from those cases suggests that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be approximately 0.5° to 1.5° above normal overall during August. Overall, 1993 remains the base case for the pattern that should generally prevail from mid-August to mid-September. Currently, the CFSv2 suggests that a warmer than normal pattern could develop around mid-August. On July 28, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.619 (RMM). The July 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.752. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently near 100%. Most likely range: 79.3°-79.7° (2.8° to 3.2° above normal). August continues to look warmer than normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The warmest anomalies relative to normal will likely occur during the second half of the month. Finally, the UK Met Office validated the July 25 reading of 38.7°C (102°F) at the Cambridge University Botanic Garden as a new national high temperature record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 I wonder if we'll get down to 2007 ice levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 7/29 TEB: 96 EWR: 94 LGA: 94 BLM: 94 ACY: 94 New Bnswk: 93 PHL: 93 TTN: 91 NYC: 90 ISP: 89 JFK: 89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 9PM hot in the city LGA: 90 EWR: 88 TEB: 88 NYC: 86 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 2 hours ago, tdp146 said: So now you’ve got me curious. Long period swells from the Southern Hemisphere? Where did you read that, I’ve never heard that before. I first noticed it way back in July 2003. We had a solid week of powerful surging waves that seemingly came out of nowhere. Minor beach wash overs and swell periods of 20-17 seconds, something completely unheard of on the east coast. I looked around the North Atlantic and there was no tropical activity or storms at all. I figured it had to have come from a huge storm the week before that was unusually far north in the Southern Hemisphere. So I sent a question to Sean Collins the founder of Surfline and the king of surf forecasting. He sent me back a response on their “who knows” detailing the storm that caused the swell and how it’s entirely possible given the right circumstances. They have been talking about this current swell on their premium subscription forecasts for over a week now!!! We have had several smaller events since 03 but this is the only other that stacks up. Check out the swell periods on the NY Harbor Buoy. There are our typical local wind waves with the periods below 10 seconds and then the southern hemi swells with the periods over 13 seconds. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44065 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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