July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[doncat]

Nice being in the 60's last four mornings...Have had 13 days with 70°+ mins  this month.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

-NAO is really getting going on models, I suspect it will become stronger. -EPO is now showing up too. A lot of arctic ice melt pattern, could actually be bad for the Winter. 

JB seemed to suggest the warm August could be in trouble with the renewed blocking, but I always thought blocking in mid-late summer gave the northeast heat.

[frd]

On 7/25/2019 at 10:13 AM, bluewave said:

Where was this historic -NAO pattern during the winter? It’s getting ready to significantly drop again after setting the new record. The LGA 100 degree day coincided with a brief rise to positive along with the record breaking Pacific Northwest jet streak. Also notice how the far North Atlantic SST’s have rapidly risen to near record levels under this pattern.

https://mobile.twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1153756526630318081

NAO+ anyone? After being 88 days in a negative phase, the North Atlantic Oscillation has turned today to positive. This beats the previous record by almost three weeks!

 @bluewave Great post ! In your opinion what supports this continuation with the -NAO ? I know the cold pool had some role, but I thought is was warming and would lose it's influence soon if not already. Any thoughts ?

 

 

 

[JustinRP37]

16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

JB seemed to suggest the warm August could be in trouble with the renewed blocking, but I always thought blocking in mid-late summer gave the northeast heat.

JB is always looking for ways to make it cold. Look at his track record with the long range. We are just a few weeks away from him saying 2019-2020 will be he most epic cold and snowy is winter for the east coast. Like clockwork.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

JB is always looking for ways to make it cold. Look at his track record with the long range. We are just a few weeks away from him saying 2019-2020 will be he most epic cold and snowy is winter for the east coast. Like clockwork.

he usually hypes summer heat and went big on his August forecast.  (Yes I know his winter shtick, LOL)

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, frd said:

 

The record -NAO reversed the entire Atlantic SST pattern. The cold pool that had been dominating the North Atlantic south of Greenland rapidly shifted to near record warm. Notice how much different the Atlantic is from this time last year. 

[Brian5671]

Almost like the +AMO doesn't want to die.   I was convinced we were beginning the flip to the -AMO.  With all that warm water off our coast expect a warm fall and maybe even into Dec.

[Rtd208]

Pretty warm day out there so far. I think some spots make it to 90 or just above.

Current temp 87/DP 65/RH 41%

[SnoSki14]

27 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Almost like the +AMO doesn't want to die.   I was convinced we were beginning the flip to the -AMO.  With all that warm water off our coast expect a warm fall and maybe even into Dec.

I'm not so sure everything will be warm. With the cold pool gone there's a good chance we see a lot more NAO blocking to come, which will have an effect on our weather past summer. 

Looks like a pretty positive PDO as well. I also don't think August will be as warm as people think.  

[Yanksfan]

25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm not so sure everything will be warm. With the cold pool gone there's a good chance we see a lot more NAO blocking to come, which will have an effect on our weather past summer. 

Looks like a pretty positive PDO as well. I also don't think August will be as warm as people think.  

I agree with August. With blocking returning any warm spells will be short lived. We'll see how everything unfolds. As far as next winter is concerned, if the -NAO regime continues to dominate it would be a game changer, since the last several winters have been void of any long term blocking. My fear is the pattern will flip back positive when December rolls around.

[SACRUS]

37 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

I agree with August. With blocking returning any warm spells will be short lived. We'll see how everything unfolds. As far as next winter is concerned, if the -NAO regime continues to dominate it would be a game changer, since the last several winters have been void of any long term blocking. My fear is the pattern will flip back positive when December rolls around.

August still looks warm overall and probably stronger warmth the second half.  Still think on/around Aug 9 stronger heat returns east,

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

About as perfect of a beach day as you can get here at Jones beach currently! The water is a light blue/turquoise with that light winds and plenty surface warming. For a minute you would think you were on a tropical island somewhere 

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

About as perfect of a beach day as you can get here at Jones beach currently! The water is a light blue/turquoise with that light winds and plenty surface warming. For a minute you would think you were on a tropical island somewhere 

chamber of commerce weather this weekend-warm to hot but not too hot and no threat of storms.

[bluewave]

The record European heatwave made it to the edge of the Arctic circle today. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1154824807365664768

Hot in Sweden: 34.8°C (95°F) today in Markusvinsa (66.7°N), just north of the Arctic circle!

 

[Rtd208]

Current temp 89/DP 60/RH 35%

[rclab]

13 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Hey if anyone would like to give me a reason not to be panicking about the environment, that'd be hugely appreciated, thanks.

It will take quite a finger or number of to plug this dyke. I guess it’s time we retired the middle one. As always ......

[CIK62]

EURO CONTROL is 10-15 degrees F AN during the period August 25-Sept. 10, which would rival, I am sure, the 1953 Heatwave which had a similar timeframe.     Normal high is 81 to 79 for the period.

[donsutherland1]

The historic heat that smashed high temperature records in Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom yesterday has been shifting north. Nevertheless, more records were broken in parts of western Europe earlier today.

Records included: Bergen, Norway: 92° (all-time record); Bologna: 100°; Cologne: 102°; Dusseldorf: 102° (3rd consecutive 100° day; none prior to 2019); Eindhoven, Netherlands: 102°; Etne, Norway: 95° (all-time record); Frankfurt: 102°; Haugesund, Norway: 88° (tied all-time record); Kleine-Brogel, Belgium: 100°; Linz, Austria: 95°; Lugano, Switzerland: 95°; Markusvinsa, Sweden (north of the Arctic Circle at 66.725°N): 95°; Namskoggen, Norway: 94° (all-time record); Noervenich, Germany: 100°; Oulu, Finland: 84°; Overkalix-Svartbyn, Sweden: 94°; Paharova, Sweden: 92°; Stavanger, Norway: 90°; Tonisvorst, Germany: 105°; Verona, Italy: 99°; Vidsel, Sweden: 92° (all-time record); Vlieland Island, Netherlands: 90°; Volkel, Netherlands: 104° (tied all-time record); and, Ylitornio, Finland: 92° (all-time record).

For those who are interested in the climate change link to the heat, below are some excerpts from a paper published in February 2018:

We have analysed 50 climate model projections from the CMIP5 (RCP8.5) ensemble and calculated consistent and comparable metrics of climate impacts for HW, droughts and flooding for 571 European cities. More frequent and hotter HW are expected for all European cities. Southern cities see the largest increase in the number of HW days (as much as 69%).

Note: "HW" stands for heatwave.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaaad3/meta

In terms of the near-term weather, record warmth is possible tomorrow and perhaps Sunday in parts of Europe, especially parts of Norway and Sweden. Meanwhile record cold will likely develop in eastern Finland and a portion of western Russia during the latter part of the weekend and early part of next week. By the middle of next week, most of Europe will likely be colder than normal. The coldest anomalies relative to normal will be centered over eastern Europe, including western Russia.

Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied near 100% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied near 100% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 64.6°-65.0°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around July 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

The SOI was +5.79 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.184. A general tendency for blocking could persist through into the first week in August and perhaps beyond that. Should blocking generally persist, a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer is likely.

Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.

In addition, since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. The mean anomaly from those cases suggests that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be approximately 0.5° to 1.5° above normal overall during August.

On July 25, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.486 (RMM). The July 24-adjusted amplitude was 0.568.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently greater than 99%. Most likely range: 78.9°-79.9° (2.4° to 3.4° above normal).

August continues to look warmer than normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The warmest anomalies relative to normal will likely occur during the second half of the month.

[SACRUS]

7/26

TEB: 89
NYC: 88
PHL: 88
EWR: 88
LGA: 88
TTN: 87
ACY: 87
ISP: 86
BLM: 85
JFK: 85

 

New Bnswk: --- (site down since 7/23*)

[NYCweatherNOW]

Looks like summer peaked last weekend. Hot and dry summer ended up being the correct call. I mean we’ve had rains but it’s been dry not humid. It’s been honestly one of my favorite summers of all time. Plenty of beach days and cool nights. Early next week may get a bit humid but I don’t think that continues I think hot and dry dews continue throughout August with cooler temps coming into play early August. September could be kinda surprisingly humid and warm

[CIK62]

Last 5 days of July are averaging 80.5*, or 4degs. AN.

Month to date is  +2.8[79.4].       July should end near  +3.0[79.6].

73.9* here at 6am.    75.0* by 7:30am.    77.1* at 9am.   79.1* by Noon, and cumulus clouds once again to west.

[bluewave]

No let up in sight for this record breaking -NAO. Looks like Greenland will experience their highest 500 mb heights on record for this time of year. So this could eventually mean a return to stormier conditions.

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

No let up in sight for this record breaking -NAO. Looks like Greenland will experience their highest 500 mb heights on record for this time of year. So this could eventually mean a return to stormer conditions.

 

That would be great, let’s keep the wet times rolling. If we can translate this into next winter things will really get interesting.

Marine life is on an incredible upswing. Daily dolphins, tuna, rays and the occasional whales at Jones Beach this summer. It’s incredible  to see. I saw tuna flying through the air chasing bait fish only a few feet from shore yesterday!

[ILoveWinter]

25 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That would be great, let’s keep the wet times rolling. If we can translate this into next winter things will really get interesting.

Marine life is on an incredible upswing. Daily dolphins, tuna, rays and the occasional whales at Jones Beach this summer. It’s incredible  to see. I saw tuna flying through the air chasing bait fish only a few feet from shore yesterday!

What are the odds that this keeps up through at least a part of winter vs. reversing - lets say right around Dec 1?? lol

[Brian5671]

48 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

What are the odds that this keeps up through at least a part of winter vs. reversing - lets say right around Dec 1?? lol

if we can keep that warm water going south of Greenland there would be better chances of it extending into/thru winter

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That would be great, let’s keep the wet times rolling. If we can translate this into next winter things will really get interesting.

Marine life is on an incredible upswing. Daily dolphins, tuna, rays and the occasional whales at Jones Beach this summer. It’s incredible  to see. I saw tuna flying through the air chasing bait fish only a few feet from shore yesterday!

Nah that's bound to not work out  I'm appreciating a bit of dryness after a year and a half of wet.

I was on Fire Island yesterday and didn't see anything but now that you've said that I'm going to have to head down to the beach more often to see what I can see. My wife and kids want to head out to Montauk on Thursday so maybe...

[Spanks45]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

No let up in sight for this record breaking -NAO. Looks like Greenland will experience their highest 500 mb heights on record for this time of year. So this could eventually mean a return to stormier conditions.

 

Have to wonder if the solar min has anything to do with this or it is just a huge coincidence. I know there is on going research but wasn't sure how concrete the evidence was at this point...

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Have to wonder if the solar min has anything to do with this or it is just a huge coincidence. I know there is on going research but wasn't sure how concrete the evidence was at this point...

Most of the current research seems to be focused on the wavier jet stream and stuck weather patterns with continued warming. There was an interesting paper out right before the big -NAO drop in 2009. It linked bigger NAO swings to warmer conditions. The paper has done very well last 10 years with the periods of all-time record  negative and positive phases.

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2009-01/whoi-sls011309.php

[NYCweatherNOW]

81 and sunny at 9:35 kinda hot I think temps overachieve today. My high is supposed to be 85.

[SACRUS]

 

One thing that has been a theme this summer since Memorial day is the string of great weekend / Holiday (July 4th) weather.  Any of the rains/storms have been mostly during the week.   I count 18 of 21 weekend/ holiday days as dry and great summer weather.

Warmer spots may snatch a 90 today more widedpread tomorrow - Wed where Mon and Tue (especially Tuesday) could yield some stronger (95 +) heat.  Then the next front which could deliver some more heavy rains later Wed - Fri.  Then back to normal / below 8/1 - 8/8 before next surge of heat comes back and perhaps stronger into the week of 8/12..