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July 2019 General Discussion

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Still rocking a T of precip for the month IMBY. Ground is as hard as a rock. I am building a new home, and was worried a few weeks ago that it would be too wet to dig. I got my permits today, and we are going to be fine... 

Lush green turning to dried out piles of brush are going to give any stray spark a nice home. 

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32 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Still rocking a T of precip for the month IMBY. Ground is as hard as a rock. I am building a new home, and was worried a few weeks ago that it would be too wet to dig. I got my permits today, and we are going to be fine... 

Lush green turning to dried out piles of brush are going to give any stray spark a nice home. 

A trace?  Maps must be deceiving because I was just looking at a July precip map and nobody in N IL was that dry. 

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LOT did issue an excessive heat watch for Chicago.  I can't remember what Cook county criteria is but I know it is different than the rest of the cwa.    

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What funny about this summer compared to last year, by Sunday evening I will likely have 14-15 90 degree days which is more than compared with all last summer. Weather like Real Estate is all local.

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A surprise cluster of cells this evening converged on Cedar Rapids and dumped a MUCH-needed 1.53" of rain on my yard.  The first inch fell in only 18 minutes.

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NW Ohio Wx @NWOhioWeather
1m
It is safe to say now that heat index values will climb well over 100°F, especially Friday and Saturday afternoons. Can not rule out heat index 110-115°F. Dangerous heat/humidity setup in the forecast. #NWOhioWx #OHwx

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It's looking increasingly possible that what once looked like a solid 6 day heat wave (Wed-Mon), could potentially end up just being one day (Fri) around here.

Each day, outside of Friday, has some sort of fail potential. Tomorrow a lake breeze and associated showers and t'storms could prevent 90+. On Thursday, a weakening MCS is expected in the morning, and if it lingers could prevent 90+. Friday is a slam dunk 90+ day, and probably mid-upper 90's at that. Saturday has increasing potential to feature a frontal passage and t'storms at some point, which could also prevent 90+ potential. The much earlier frontal passage will also prevent 90+ on Sunday and Monday.

The biggest change over the past several days is that guidance has really lost the decent ridge that was expected to develop and kick the jet stream north, and instead has a weaker ridge under a more zonal flow pattern. Guidance has also stepped back in the warmer UA temps being advected to the east as once advertised, which is not surprising given the first point.

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LOT did issue an excessive heat watch for Chicago.  I can't remember what Cook county criteria is but I know it is different than the rest of the cwa.    
For Cook County, watch/warning criteria is:
1 day of 110+ HI
2 days of 105+ HI
3 days of 100+ HI

For the rest of the LOT CWA:
2-3 days of max HI 110+ and min of 75+
4 days of 105+ HI

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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14 hours ago, Hoosier said:

A trace?  Maps must be deceiving because I was just looking at a July precip map and nobody in N IL was that dry. 

The hyper local conditions around here are pretty nuts. 2 miles in most any direction has been poured on, and several nights we have watched rain pour down in the distance, can smell the rain, and never get more than a few drops. 

The local ponds behind my house that I fish on are very low (makes it easy to find the bass). Grass is very crunchy, and we are watering all of our ornamental plants every night. 

One pop up storm would be nice! And regarding the map, with things so localized, data smoothing has likely washed over my area (and I assume other super local areas which have been dry due to the incredibly spotty nature of our precip lately). 

69CF2E9B-B1C6-46C3-AA49-8FCC2398115B.png

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One of the classics.  Part of the DVN AFD from back in 2011 on this date..

SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND HIGH CAPES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS IF CAP BREAKS. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT THEN A
DESTRUCTIVE DERECHO WITH WINDS OVER 100 MPH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD TAKE THE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE DVN CWA.

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carlaw with another good AFD, seems a nice addition

 

heat wave gonna be just a single day above 90 here, no major surprise there though

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23 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

The hyper local conditions around here are pretty nuts. 2 miles in most any direction has been poured on, and several nights we have watched rain pour down in the distance, can smell the rain, and never get more than a few drops. 

The local ponds behind my house that I fish on are very low (makes it easy to find the bass). Grass is very crunchy, and we are watering all of our ornamental plants every night. 

One pop up storm would be nice! And regarding the map, with things so localized, data smoothing has likely washed over my area (and I assume other super local areas which have been dry due to the incredibly spotty nature of our precip lately). 

69CF2E9B-B1C6-46C3-AA49-8FCC2398115B.png

Finally off the 0’fer with 1.30” (and still some falling). 

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1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

carlaw with another good AFD, seems a nice addition

 

heat wave gonna be just a single day above 90 here, no major surprise there though

Welcome back. 

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00Z models temp runs over the next 10 days are pretty crazy for July if they are to be believed.  Both GFS and EURO has me at 67 at 6pm Mon. possibly hitting 50 early Tues. morning.  Except for next Sat, it could be downright chilly with highs of 80 and lows in the high 50's low 60's on average and dew's getting as low as high 40's.  Yeah, it's this kind of stuff that makes 95 seem super hot.

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7 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

00Z models temp runs over the next 10 days are pretty crazy for July if they are to be believed.  Both GFS and EURO has me at 67 at 6pm Mon. possibly hitting 50 early Tues. morning.  Except for next Sat, it could be downright chilly with highs of 80 and lows in the high 50's low 60's on average and dew's getting as low as high 40's.  Yeah, it's this kind of stuff that makes 95 seem super hot.

lol what? Looks pretty average to me temp-wise.

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2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

This isn't pretty normal at 6pm for July in my area....

sfct.us_mw.png

LOL, there’s nothing unusual about it being in the upper 60s at 6pm in July if it’s pouring rain. Even then, the GFS is likely overdoing it. We get one below average day in the 70s (Monday), then we bounce right back into the mid-upper 80s for the rest of the week. In fact, there are some subtle signs that the heat may build back by month’s end. 

This month has been far better than the nightmare pattern we were dealing with last month and most of spring.

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Didn't say it was set it stone, was pointing out the model runs and its obvious local forecast offices aren't totally buying into it. GFS does have some support from the Euro albiet 1 or 2 degrees cooler.  12Z runs are even cooler after this Sunday and don't have me at 80 until next Sunday.  7 straight days of high 60's warming to high 70's, rain or no rain, with lows in the low 50's warming to low 60's is a bit anomalous for my area in late July.  Once again didn't say it was going to happen.   

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1 hour ago, Jackstraw said:

Didn't say it was set it stone, was pointing out the model runs and its obvious local forecast offices aren't totally buying into it. GFS does have some support from the Euro albiet 1 or 2 degrees cooler.  12Z runs are even cooler after this Sunday and don't have me at 80 until next Sunday.  7 straight days of high 60's warming to high 70's, rain or no rain, with lows in the low 50's warming to low 60's is a bit anomalous for my area in late July.  Once again didn't say it was going to happen.   

Don’t try to reason or respond to that idiot. You’re a good poster. Don’t waste your time. :)

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Had a golf outing today.

I think this may be the first time I can really say that I did not have fun playing golf, just wishing the entire day that the round was over. 

Near zero winds for a few hours this afternoon made for suffocating conditions. Had a few guys on the course who had me seriously concerned about their health/safety. 

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Just now, SchaumburgStormer said:

Had a golf outing today.

I think this may be the first time I can really say that I did not have fun playing golf, just wishing the entire day that the round was over. 

Near zero winds for a few hours this afternoon made for suffocating conditions. Had a few guys on the course who had me seriously concerned about their health/safety. 

I'm surprised the winds were almost nil for a time this afternoon, most of the obs in S Wisconsin/N Illinois had at least a 10mph sustained wind.  I know that on days like this, 10mph would not feel like nearly enough though.

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I just noticed that the 8305 J/kg of surface CAPE at MPX this evening was the higher than the highest value shown on the SPC sounding climatology web site, which was about 7050 J/kg.

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Got a much needed 0.53" of rain yesterday afternoon in a thunderstorm, but much heavier totals to my immediate West and South. DTW got 1.61". Earlier in the week, heavy storms missed me mere miles to the north, a difference of a dew hundredths of an inch and a few inches of rain. Have been so barely avoiding the needed July rain with thread-the-needle like precision to the point where i dont even know if it would show up on a map of precip totals.

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4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Got a much needed 0.53" of rain yesterday afternoon in a thunderstorm, but much heavier totals to my immediate West and South. DTW got 1.61". Earlier in the week, heavy storms missed me mere miles to the north, a difference of a dew hundredths of an inch and a few inches of rain. Have been so barely avoiding the needed July rain with thread-the-needle like precision to the point where i dont even know if it would show up on a map of precip totals.

Did you narrowly miss 4.16" ? This map seems quite strange, in that 4.16" is next to 1.18".

o6Ob2Qq.gif

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