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weatherwiz

June 2019 Discussion

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Actually needed the rain. 

Our golf course did too, as amazing as that sounds.  It just happens to dry really quickly and 3-4 sunny, warm, dry days in a row starts to crisp things out.  This should let us avoid irrigating for a little bit.

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22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice, pretty typical early summer days. Hope they enjoy 

Hope so, I am sure 75 will better than 92 and humidity! 

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57 minutes ago, Modfan said:

How is next week looking? Co worker and is family are going to New England for the first time (Staying on the Cape) and will be traveling around SE Ma and RI

85-90 with moderate to at times higher dews depending on the day

Cooler at Coast obviously 

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I would be extremely, extremely careful about next week b/c there is a solid probability we see another large gradient setup. Thankfully (b/c of climo) it won't be as bad as to weeks ago where we had 50's and 60's while PA and NJ was 80's...but the entire region is not going to be seeing 80's or 90's and humidity next week...it's even possible that blend stays just to our southwest. 

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18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

85-90 with moderate to at times higher dews depending on the day

Cooler at Coast obviously 

Any more tornado outbreaks in our area?

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Agreed ... 

The Euro operational appears to be a warm outlier.  Even the EPS means seems less warm pervasive comparing to that 00z run for those periods/days beyond five.  

I did comment on the 00z Euro yesterday when it, too, looked interestingly warm ..but this overall has double downed and really made it 80 D5 to 90 D10 across the range.  

The GFS isn't really interested. 

I can see something in between...as both models appear to be playing up their respective biases.  The Euro may be hooking the inside slider S/W over the west, too prodigiously S early on as a typical albeit subtle bias for that model...which down stream helps maintain warmth... Contrasting, the GFS may be too eager to ablate/tamp down ridging as it also has a subtle tendency to do because of it's progressive bias.  A compromise is a temperate summer pattern. 

Which could be wrong..sure.  Either tendency could end up right anyway. Course of least regret for now is nothing annoying cool and clammy or obnoxiously sack sticker hot and heavy. 

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I'm not sure I buy the nor'easter the NAM has... 

Not just because it is the NAM outside of 30 hours either.  The GGEM tried to do that too... Both seem to be a bit convectively fed-back some there.   It seems the baroclinic parameterization of the region along the MA and near-by west Atlantic isn't supportive enough.   It could see a warm frontal wave lifting with that, sure ... but the NAM's curling so much surface pressure conveniently back around the N side of that whole mmm Could be creating its own positive feed-back by being too deep with that surface wave in the first place. 

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34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

85-90 with moderate to at times higher dews depending on the day

Cooler at Coast obviously 

Nothing says that

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Agreed ... 

The Euro operational appears to be a warm outlier.  Even the EPS means seems less warm pervasive comparing to that 00z run for those periods/days beyond five.  

I did comment on the 00z Euro yesterday when it, too, looked interestingly warm ..but this overall has double downed and really made it 80 D5 to 90 D10 across the range.  

The GFS isn't really interested. 

I can see something in between...as both models appear to be playing up their respective biases.  The Euro may be hooking the inside slider S/W over the west, too prodigiously S early on as a typical albeit subtle bias for that model...which down stream helps maintain warmth... Contrasting, the GFS may be too eager to ablate/tamp down ridging as it also has a subtle tendency to do because of it's progressive bias.  A compromise is a temperate summer pattern. 

Which could be wrong..sure.  Either tendency could end up right anyway. Course of least regret for now is nothing annoying cool and clammy or obnoxiously sack sticker hot and heavy. 

We're north of the 582dm height contour...all we really need to know. 

The pattern, however, is quite favorable for convection...we don't need 90s/70s to get severe. In retrospect next week likely is closer to average with increased humidity (and maybe ending up slightly above due the increased humidity leading to warmer lows. 

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1.17", Glad i was able to mow back there yesterday, Going to be another few week before the second mowing this season it seems.

Water.PNG

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21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nothing says that

:) ha... It's like he takes whatever there is in the summer and auto lies/tacks on 5+ degrees of both temp and DP... and vice versa in the winter. 

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22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

We're north of the 582dm height contour...all we really need to know. 

The pattern, however, is quite favorable for convection...we don't need 90s/70s to get severe. In retrospect next week likely is closer to average with increased humidity (and maybe ending up slightly above due the increased humidity leading to warmer lows. 

Yup .. as part of the "temperatre summer" definition... we should get periods of corrective instability ...  warm rolls in...overrunning this... might or might not wedge in before cfropa boomers...rinse repeat

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38 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Scooter never said that

He's the king of asking what the pattern looks like and then 10 minutes later telling everyone what's coming. He did it this morning asking Scoot about "dews and HHH?" and then a few posts later he's telling everyone 85-90 with dews.

 

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

He's the king of asking what the pattern looks like and then 10 minutes later telling everyone what's coming. He did it this morning asking Scoot about "dews and HHH?" and then a few posts later he's telling everyone 85-90 with dews.

 

Looks warm but normal to me but lets see how many 90 days we rack up in the next 10

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With that said...it's not too difficult to pull off mid 80s with 60s dews this time of year whenever we poke a ridge in here with 15C 850s.

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12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

He's the king queen of asking what the pattern looks like and then 10 minutes later telling everyone what's coming. He did it this morning asking Scoot about "dews and HHH?" and then a few posts later he's telling everyone 85-90 with dews.

 

image.png.ab7bdc1f74acb146b8d694198ee84bcd.png

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46 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

:) ha... It's like he takes whatever there is in the summer and auto lies/tacks on 5+ degrees of both temp and DP... and vice versa in the winter. 

Ha, and take the Met who thinks it might get hot and run with it.  A couple weeks ago it was Fisher who had the best ideas when he said 90F...then Gibbs...today Scooter.  

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