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OKStorm

MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

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3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Bust day coming up.. look at the radar interference 

Please use /s to indicate sarcasm. You’ll confuse everyone

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Looks like the warm front is going to get hung up along I-40.  Sweetwater, OK temp has fallen from 72 to 56 and winds backed to the NW gusting to 15.

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1 minute ago, pbrussell said:

Please use /s to indicate sarcasm. You’ll confuse everyone

He's a troll from the MA forum.  Too much radar interference in his posting. :(

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  • Haha 1

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like the warm front is going to get hung up along I-40.  Sweetwater, OK temp has fallen from 72 to 56 and winds backed to the NW gusting to 15.

Perhaps, but I think the warm front is gonna take on a more SW-NE component with time. It may have stalled in the west, but still seems to be continuing to lift northward farther east.

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like the warm front is going to get hung up along I-40.  Sweetwater, OK temp has fallen from 72 to 56 and winds backed to the NW gusting to 15.

Yup. Mesonet shows front sagging.

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WWUS40 KWNS 201834

WWP9 

 

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0199

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0132 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

 

WT 0199 PDS

PROBABILITY TABLE:

PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES                        : >95%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /EF2-EF5/ TORNADOES       : >95%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS              : >95%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS          : >95%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS              : >95%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES          : >95%

PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

 

&&

ATTRIBUTE TABLE:

MAX HAIL /INCHES/                            : 4.0

MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/               : 70

MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/                        : 600

MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 23035

PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION             : YES

 

&&

FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND

WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU9.

 

$$

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Mesoscale Discussion 0703
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0137 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

   Areas affected...Texas Panhandle/West Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 197...

   Valid 201837Z - 201930Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 197 continues.

   SUMMARY...Rapid development of tornadic supercells expected in the
   next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway across the Texas
   Panhandle and west Texas within an environment characterized by
   MLCAPE of 3500-4000 J/kg, effective bulk shear of 50-60 kt, and
   effective SRH of 300+ m^2/s^2. In addition, observed soundings
   launched by the TORUS field program in this area (Wellington, TX)
   indicate weak CIN and a favorable low-level kinematic environment
   for tornadoes in proximity to the developing convection, with a
   sickle-shaped hodograph and 0-1 km AGL SRH near 300 m^2/s^2.
   Convection that is developing now is expected to mature quickly, and
   given the ambient environment, storms should quickly evolve into
   supercell structures capable of significant, long-tracked tornadoes
   within the next hour or two -- in agreement with SPC objective
   analysis.

   ..Karstens.. 05/20/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

mcd0703.gif

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Should be a rather predictable day for chasing.  Just don't get run over by a northeasterly track.  Nothing sketchy about direction (El Reno).  But the trade-off is real.  You'll never catch anything from the south today.  Decisions will have to be made in minutes, if not seconds.

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2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Dews up to near 70 all around OKC at this point

Impressive warm front.  Temp is in the upper 40s across the OK panhandle and in the mid 80s along the Red River.  Gonna be a few beefy cells today.

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Just now, kvegas-wx said:

Just don't get run over by a northeasterly track.  

> Or get trapped by floodwaters

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Cells along and south of the warm front in Oklahoma still having trouble going off.  Bad sign?  Different story in NW Texas with several discrete supercells.

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1 minute ago, Natester said:

Cells along and south of the warm front in Oklahoma still having trouble going off.  Bad sign?

I think they discussed it in the Meso for the watch. Site appears to be down at the moment, but my memory is that it will actually assist with keeping storms discrete and unmuddled

edit: 

 

   The 18z Fort Worth, TX upper air balloon showed a capping inversion
   located just below 700mb.  Recent runs of the RAP model show this
   inversion less pronounced farther north.  Despite temperatures
   warming into the lower 80s over north TX into southwest OK, this
   capping inversion has delayed convective initiation.  This is
   concerning for 2 reasons:  1) the wind profile continues to
   strengthen across southwest and central OK with the Norman, OK upper
   air balloon sampling 50kt flow around 850mb which is about 1-2 hours
   earlier than forecast soundings were showing. 2) It does not appear
   many storms will develop across southwest OK and resulting in
   destructive storm-to-storm interference.  In other words, tornadic
   potential appears very high.  Storms will likely initiate on the
   north-end of the cloud streets over southwestern OK in the hotter
   air and intensify and move northeast towards the I-40 and I-35
   corridors later.

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Just now, Natester said:

Cells along and south of the warm front in Oklahoma still having trouble going off.  Bad sign?  Different story in the Texas panhandle with several discrete supercells.

That's a good sign for tornadoes.  You're not yet at peak heating.  Fewer early storms means more CAPE when they do go off and cleaner storm mode.

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1 minute ago, Natester said:

Cells along and south of the warm front in Oklahoma still having trouble going off.  Bad sign?  Different story in the Texas panhandle with several discrete supercells.

I'm not worried because it's not even 1400 CDT, so it's still very early. 

Texas has the extra lift from the dry line, hence healthier and deeper convection, for the moment.

 

Watching the cells west and northwest of Watonga, OK.

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