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OKStorm

MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

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3 minutes ago, Misstertwister said:

Where’s the boundary? Me thinks NW OK?edmond area is north of the boundary. It’s fricking cold out when I took my dogs for a walk in Deer creek

going based off the obs, I would say Swisher County Tx > Altus OK > Minco OK > downtown OKC > Cushing OK > Nowata Conty OK with a first guess

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Okay.  Yeah, this is my first post (yeah, a "new" guy), but I've been a member for a while. Was today the first "45%" contour since 27 April 2011? Having bookmarked that thread years ago, I don't think the SPC ever even went with 60% that day, although it was justified.  The SPC was probably too busy by 20z to do the 60%.  And, yes, I remember PDS TW 235 (everything >95%) as well.  And, yes, I've tried not to ask questions already answered. 

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11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Ughhh I thought coming here would be a “refresh” over the twitter junk, but alas there is some here too. Why are people always so quick to yell “bust”? 

Just b/c things haven’t “lived up” to whatever expectations were thought to have occurred by now. 

Forcing looks to continue to slowly improve (this has not increased as quickly as it may have appeared to do so) over the next several hours which should help. There certainly are some flags (such as poor low-level lapse rates, outflow, and it also appears maybe best sfc vorticity May be a bit displaced from greatest low-level CAPE) but this is far from over. 

The threat for significant tornadoes (with a large populated area still at risk) looms and now that it is getting darker that becomes scarier. 

Nocturnal jet ramping up a bit is only going to further enhance hodographs. 

 

 

Exactly.  They/models/we/everyone missed something earlier, to be learned later, but there's still a volatile atmosphere out there waiting to be tapped as darkness ensues.  There's nothing scarier than an EF anything coming at you in the dark, been there.

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Haven't been here in a while - but something strange passed over Wichita and was very pronounced on both BV 0.5 KICT and TICH.  Best described as a "ripple" starting at 23:20Z to present approached from the southwest and ran over the city producing some interesting wind effects.

Anyone have an idea of what it was?  I've never seen anything like it, strongly resembled a still shot of a bullet going through the air.

Edit: NWS Wichita calling it a wake low event.

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1 minute ago, Crazieman said:

Haven't been here in a while - but something strange passed over Wichita and was very pronounced on both BV 0.5 KICT and TICH.  Best described as a "ripple" starting at 23:20Z to present approached from the southwest and ran over the city producing some interesting wind effects.

Anyone have an idea of what it was?  I've never seen anything like it, strongly resembled a still shot of a bullet going through the air.

Sounds like you're talking about gravity waves.

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1 minute ago, zinski1990 said:

Give it up folks. It's a bust. It's all over. It's just a crap line now

Then why are you still here in the thread?

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7 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

got to make sue the boundary doesn't get pushed back north by the LLJ. ....and back into those storms....

 

seen it happen before

Great point. Also been watching sfc chart and low over SE NM...depending on how that evolves that is something that could help nudge the boundary north. Was looking at theta-e trends on mesoanalysis and it seems like there was some indications for a slight nudge north of some higher theta-e

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

Great point. Also been watching sfc chart and low over SE NM...depending on how that evolves that is something that could help nudge the boundary north. Was looking at theta-e trends on mesoanalysis and it seems like there was some indications for a slight nudge north of some higher theta-e

Speaking of that low i was looking at the models from 12-24 hours ago and none of them had handled the surface low evolution well.

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6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Been kinda watching this area but it appears some convection is trying to get going.7C80F083-98FE-404F-B622-BC097EA1575D.thumb.png.10c280cdeaf5debf0c07be6c5ba1f894.png

 

There has been stuff like that in that area for the last two hours. Hasn’t been able to do anything more than a shower. Could change, but seems unlikely at this point. 

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Just now, zinski1990 said:

Give it up folks. It's a bust. It's all over. It's just a crap line now

i'm not calling it a bust by any means. was it in the storm mode everyone was hoping for in the OKC metro and SE OK? no, too tropical below 650 in the warm sector. but Jackstraw is right in that we're getting to the time in the evening and into the night where the near-surface layer isn't as important and the LLJ kicks in. And from that 21Z sounding I pointed out earlier for OUN, there's still enough kinematics and instability aloft to do a lot. It will be interesting to see the 00Z soundings from OUN, MAF, and FWD as well as any special soundings if they were to put them up out at ABI and maybe SPS to get a better pic of the air masses moving in for the overnight.

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10 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

Give it up folks. It's a bust. It's all over. It's just a crap line now

Take the rest of the night off 

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Folks, from an objective perspecitve, this is a bust.  There are few scenarios whete the high risk will verify.  No signs of CI in the warm sector and a robust MCS that is being overrun by an OFB. Just calling a spade a spade.

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4 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

0100Z outlook is over ten minutes late now.

I wonder what the deal is... can’t be that much to figure out at this point. 

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Just now, MUWX said:

I wonder what the deal is... can’t be that much to figure out at this point. 

"They want our blood... what do we tell them?"

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0z soundings still show a pretty decent warm tongue around 700...and quite apparent on mesoanalysis. There is a pretty decent MLJ streak developing across SW TX. I wonder if stronger forcing will help to overcome the cap a bit...doesn’t look like there will be any cooling though tough to tell from mobile 

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

 

Yeah was just looking at soundings and saw some tweets. Explains it quite well. 

That what makes this quite unsettling too...if that can erode a bit (which I guess can’t entirely be ruled out given some increase in forcing)won’t take much to get some to fire...though CAMS not impressed at all really with that 

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Just now, jojo762 said:

SPC (Broyles) maintains a high risk area...

All based on one storm. Not sure I get it, but it doesn’t really matter at this point 

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