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OKStorm

MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

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Lets keep the back and forth arguing on another tread.  Actual event related information from here on out. 

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43 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Best livestreams for the region? (TV stations, webcams, etc.)

I personally stream KOKH and KOCO from OKC. They're the calmest on air and KOCO has a helicopter. I think KAUZ in Witchita Falls may stream their severe coverage as well. KOKI in Tulsa streams their coverage. Hope that helped

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$20 says the 1630z update has a hatched 45% tor.

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8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

$20 says the 1630z update has a hatched 45% tor.

Can confirm this based on SPC image, showed Jon Hart adding it in.

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Friendly reminder that all red boxes in a High Risk are automatically PDS.

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20 minutes ago, METALSTORM said:

I personally stream KOKH and KOCO from OKC. They're the calmest on air and KOCO has a helicopter. I think KAUZ in Witchita Falls may stream their severe coverage as well. KOKI in Tulsa streams their coverage. Hope that helped

KOCO also have live streams for multiple storm chasers.  They are already active on their site.

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Looks like the first PDS red box is being drawn up ATTM.

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1 minute ago, DanLarsen34 said:

If the models are accurate, we are looking at a potentially historic outbreak today. 

Yea looking incredible now.  Incredibly jealous I'm not out there. 

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Severestudios.com also has a few chasers live this morning.  Specifically Ken Engquist is in a great spot heading to an area just east of Amarillo as things begin to explode.  This will be an amazing day with endless hours of chase video to review in the coming weeks.  

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea looking incredible now.  Incredibly jealous I'm not out there. 

my wife vetoed today and I'm not entirely unhappy about that, my weather geekiness would've gotten the better of my safety.  And as a inexperienced chase I would've targeted dryline.  OK with 500M LCLs and 45kt storm motions? noooope nope nope nope

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3 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

my wife vetoed today and I'm not entirely unhappy about that, my weather geekiness would've gotten the better of my safety.  And as a inexperienced chase I would've targeted dryline.  OK with 500M LCLs and 45kt storm motions? noooope nope nope nope

I'll never have enough money to storm chase, but I'd run out there in a heartbeat on a day like today.  @Ian (Twitter: @ islivingston), @Ellinwood (Twitter: @ ellinwoosh) and @wxmeddler (Twitter: @ wxmeddler) are all chasing out there today.

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38 minutes ago, METALSTORM said:

I personally stream KOKH and KOCO from OKC. They're the calmest on air and KOCO has a helicopter. I think KAUZ in Witchita Falls may stream their severe coverage as well. KOKI in Tulsa streams their coverage. Hope that helped

Thank you!

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Just now, Blazinator said:

Any chance all this early cloudiness is going to tamp down CAPE?

Have you looked at the 12Z soundings?  

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Probably going to see more tornado warnings than SVRs today, especially in the High Risk area.

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Since we have this thread emerging from the rubble of the main thread, I would suggest to the OP or a moderator to edit this thread title to May 20 2019 High Risk TX-OK outbreak or something similar.

Will repeat the basic overview of a post that I made in the other thread. The dynamics for this event actually continue to increase well beyond the daytime heating period so I would look for this major outbreak to sustain well into the overnight as it moves out of the TX panhandle into western and even central OK. Main threat will be later afternoon when dry line catches up to developing cold front now in TX panhandle to Midland-Odessa region. Dry line potential is high as shown by 20F dew points in east-central NM. 

Numerous supercells can be expected in vicinity of cold front and dry line especially when they get less separation under accelerating flow from west at upper levels. 

Some similarity to the Goodland KS situation only further south in this instance. Somewhere between Clinton OK and Wichita Falls TX might be location of most severe storm(s) of this outbreak but anywhere between Amarillo and OKC south into Wichita Falls region at high risk. 

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Per OK mesonet, it appears the warm front is now north of I-40.

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The 1600Z sounding from Childress TX just shared on twitter shows basically no cap left and off the charts on every metric that you'd give a shit about.  And it's an ACTUAL sounding.  I've never seen anything like it. 

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One thing worth mentioning is the appearance of several bands of confluence evident on visibile satellite here. These bands will provide somewhat of a focus for open warm sector supercells to develop on. This is one of the concerns I had last night with warm sector development remaining rather nebulous/slow to intensify essentially due to a lack of a boundary to focus things. The presence of these bands all but precludes that concern at this point. Dangerous day ahead.

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Couple thing to remember, one is that thankfully there is much less population once you get west of OKC, certainly compared to say Alabama. Of course if only takes one storm in a bad spot to make for a very bad day. Second, As I mentioned in the other thead, very important for people to not seek shelter in a low lying area with the high flood risk. There were 13 flooding deaths in OKC metro during the El Reno event.

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