OKStorm

Just as a side note we started with a cool spring in OK but set the yearly record with 147 tornadoes. Granted only one was a EF3 but it was a wild few weeks as it was happening. .

1345 and May 8th .

The tornado in El Reno was quick and on the ground for only a short distance.

Lets keep the back and forth arguing on another tread. Actual event related information from here on out.

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 251 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019 ...Significant severe weather expected Monday with the threat for strong tornadoes... ...Flash flooding possible across NE OK Monday/Tuesday... .DISCUSSION... Pleasant conditions this afternoon, but this will quickly change with very active weather anticipated Monday into Tuesday. Potent upper trough will move out of the desert southwest on Monday. In response warm front will lift into northeast Oklahoma Monday afternoon. Along/south of warm front, very unstable conditions expected with large looping hodographs. Main question at this point is when the stronger convection develops and how this impacts the northern progression on warm front. Most CAM solutions have boundary lifting to at least I-40 and quite possibly to the Oklahoma/Kansas border. There will be the potential for training supercells near boundary by Monday afternoon and with limited CIN a few isolated supercells will also be possible in the warm sector. Given this scenario, strong/long track tornadoes will be possible with cells that can remain discrete. In addition, very heavy rainfall is expected with these storms across northeast Oklahoma with the potential for flash flooding. A flash flood watch was issued earlier this afternoon which will be in effect Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon. Still expect an axis of heavier rainfall that will impact south- central/southeast Kansas which will likely cause high flows along the Arkansas river and the Neosho at Commerce. Main upper storm system will lift northeast into Kansas on Tuesday with line of strong to severe storms likely sweeping through eastern Oklahoma Tuesday morning, moving into northwest Arkansas by early afternoon. Very strong low level wind fields are progged during this time and even with modest instability, the threat for QLCS tornadoes/damaging winds are expected, especially east of highway 75 where the highest instability develops. Strong upper high builds over the southeast CONUS by mid to late week. Could still see scattered showers/thunderstorms through the remainder of the extended periods, mainly across northeast Oklahoma on the periphery of upper high/stronger southwest flow aloft.

I do not think it ever lifted and am surprised KGWX stayed on the air.

Another issue for search and rescue in AL.

It is not like there is really warm air in the area, it is cold well south at this time.

COPES can help you through this........

Read about the typhoon out near Guam. Said that a February typhoon had not hit there since 1953 which was a weak El Nino at the time. Looked at tornadoes in 53 and there were some very significant events. So we will see but maybe not so slow this year.

Just cancel this thread. It snowed in Malibu for crying out loud but Tulsa noooooo.

I am so tired of the just too shallow cold around here. I am ready to move onto spring......... PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 307 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019/ DISCUSSION... Cold front currently moving through southeast Oklahoma into far northwest Arkansas early this morning. Areas of freezing drizzle will start to tapper off over the next couple hours, but still some slick spots on area roads, especially northwest of Tulsa. Skies are expected to clear from northwest to southeast this morning with mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Cold conditions will continue tonight into Monday morning as surface high pressure builds into the region. Complicated forecast expected on Tuesday, with multiple precip types possible, as upper level storm system moves into the four corners region. Areas of rain/ freezing rain/sleet are expected to spread north Tuesday morning given strong lift in association with right rear quad of upper jet. Temperatures will likely hold or fall to around freezing as precip develops through the day. Best chance for rain/freezing rain to transition to snow will likely be in areas north and west of Tulsa, however point soundings indicate saturation may not occur in favored dendritic growth zone. Any winter weather threat will end Tuesday night as upper jet streak lifts northeast. Still some differences concerning evolution of upper wave moving out the Baja region Wednesday into Thursday. GFS is more aggressive with wave, with another round of overrunning precip during the day Thursday. ECMWF keeps heavier rain well east of the area during this time, with significant warmup into Friday. Better rain chances are expected by Saturday as main upper low approaches. Given uncertainties in the exact track, will continue with chance pops through the remainder of the extended periods.

Tulsa still going with mostly rain event for Tulsa metro.

Good Morning Oklahoma today is pick and choose day

We would but we never get winter in OK anymore only only temps going between 15-20 and 75-80 all in a couple of days.

High Risk May 4th I am going with 1301 for the year maybe with the end of the drought in OK things will get going again.

Does not appear so TSA calling for less than one inch in Tulsa at this time. Going for the rain over snow or ice.

Rain moved thru Tulsa to the west in Creek Co bridges iced up very slick. Precipitation ended in west Tulsa for now showing 30 on the dash.

TSA not biting on snow for Tulsa Metro. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 407 PM CST Wed Jan 2 2019 .DISCUSSION... Complicated forecast this afternoon with ongoing areas of light freezing rain or freezing drizzle in parts of eastern OK and northwest AR that prompted a Winter Weather Advisory earlier today. Surface temperatures have gone virtually nowhere as warm conveyor precip continues to spread north up to near I-44 with a sharp cutoff on the northern edge. Temps are and will likely remain below freezing from about McAlester to Eureka Springs with slight moderation possible later tonight. Although short-wave ridging aloft will be over the are tonight, a near saturated layer will persist up through around 850mb per high res model soundings, thus while threat of measurable rainfall will eventually shift east, some patchy areas of freezing drizzle cannot be discounted. Thus have extended the Advisory into Thursday morning, as some slick overpasses have been reported. Potent upper low currently centered west of ELP will continue to move east Thursday, with a track somewhere in the vicinity of the Red River. Precip will begin to increase Thursday morning into the afternoon as the low moves east. Freezing remain potential during the morning will persist, and concern is that temperatures will not moderate much at all in the vicinity of heaviest precip band which is currently expected to set up close to the I-40 corridor. If temps remain cold enough a band of significant ice accumulation may set up and this will need to be watched closely. By afternoon most if not all locations should finally warm above freezing but again this is no guarantee where heaviest precip falls. For now will handle the potential with extension of existing Advisory. Areas in closer proximity to the upper low track will eventually see enough cooling through deeper layer to result in a chance to snow, with some potential for accumulations mainly across southeast OK in elevated terrain.

Just plain ugly stats not to mention it snowed in Houston, New Orleans and now Fla today. Cancel winter now and get onto spring storms........

If the drought continues to intensify in OK I have my doubts on a decent spring. I am going for 1050 total and the first high risk on March 7 in the Dixie area.

Had a nice burst of snow in Owasso last night about 2330 hours as the rain finally changed to all snow.