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Dr. Dews

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

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5 minutes ago, SlantStickers Anonymous said:

You’re going to reverse psychology your way into cat 2 winds at this rate. 

I can't have this system take away my NFL for the next four months.

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36 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

No you guys take Dorian and fling his impacts SE of ACK, kick him out to sea, I want to watch football this weekend and not lose power because I know my street will lose power the first 10mph gust that occurs Friday morning.

One day without power really got to you ;)

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It’s really hard to say at this point what sizeable impact Dorian will cause here in NS. What has caught my attention the most is the consistency of the GFS over the last few days on the track through the Maritimes.

Yeah you’re not kidding about gfs. It has be pretty focused on a NS direct hit. 18z keeps that theme going. That is concerning. Getting inside 5 days now.
  • Haha 1

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1 hour ago, Hazey said:


Yeah you’re not kidding about gfs. It has be pretty focused on a NS direct hit. 18z keeps that theme going. That is concerning. Getting inside 5 days now.

There will be a shot at a landfall or scrape jmo. I've been looking at some analogs and general UA and it seems with a partial capture, a bend NNE is on the table. Of course that's an eternity away,  where exactly that occurs and Dorian's condition at the time. A west track would include life partially over land, also over cooler waters later on. a track along the GS would carry a stronger system but the storm would probably not be able to make that latitude.

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The faster this weakens, the better. Track appears to take the center of whatever is left of Dorian, to my south. Rainier but less windy. Hopefully the trend east continues.

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Euro has been inching its way northwest as well as it moves towards New England.  Just an interesting trend over the last four runs - still doesn’t seem likely to get anything other than fringe effects from the storm.

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6z EPS nudged west. Probably not much of anything NW of the Cape, but it wouldn't take much for decent rains and 40mph winds in ern areas. The key for us, is the s/w diving in from the Canadian Plains. Need that to dive south an sharpen.

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17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z EPS nudged west. Probably not much of anything NW of the Cape, but it wouldn't take much for decent rains and 40mph winds in ern areas. The key for us, is the s/w diving in from the Canadian Plains. Need that to dive south an sharpen.

it's a tease lol

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Should be decent here. Id like another nudge east to get into the lightly better winds. The winds wont be higher than any of our major winter storms but with leafed trees and unfrozen ground there will be more opportunity for damage and power outages. 

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