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Kmlwx

2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

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52 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

What are our chances at a round 2?

Probably nothing.  Not that there was even a round one up here.  Just a quick shower and one, yes one rumble of thunder!  Big NON event here and we were solidly in enhanced whereas y'all to our south got legit severe.

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10 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said:

thats not that high

Dont come stirring pots in here. It’s one of the few remaining severe threads worth a damn. 

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Tons of damage here in Columbia. Took a ride back to my old neighborhood because I saw the worst of the velocities pass over and found trees into houses and many roads impassable due to several massive trees across the road. Trying to upload some pictures as I was let inside the house before it was officially condemned. This was by far the best storm in fairly recent memory - possibly since  the derecho. 

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1 minute ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Tons of damage here in Columbia. Took a ride back to my old neighborhood because I saw the worst of the velocities pass over and found trees into houses and many roads impassable due to several massive trees across the road. Trying to upload some pictures as I was let inside the house before it was officially condemned. This was by far the best storm in fairly recent memory - possibly since  the derecho. 

Got a text from a friend leaving his office near Ellicott City.  He sent me a pic of the ramp at 32 and 100 with a tree blocking everything except the shoulder.  Looks bad.  Stay safe out there!  Lots of trees can still fall after the storm, been there done that!

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3 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

This was by far the best storm in fairly recent memory - possibly since  the derecho. 

That is saying a lot. Remember that like it was yesterday. Sounded like a freightr train for a good 15 minutes , took down countless 50 to 200 feet Pines on the road in front of our development. Took many days to recover in regards to tree clean-up, and getting power to those who did not have underground electric hook-up. 

Interesting the enhanced area today,  to a degree today fizzled,  where as the slight risk become the real deal. Maybe the heating, and more sun, not sure. 

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17 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Tons of damage here in Columbia. Took a ride back to my old neighborhood because I saw the worst of the velocities pass over and found trees into houses and many roads impassable due to several massive trees across the road. Trying to upload some pictures as I was let inside the house before it was officially condemned. This was by far the best storm in fairly recent memory - possibly since  the derecho. 

Not on my side of Columbia. A few small branches down, but that’s it. Intense wind and rain for about 5-10mins.

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Just now, frd said:

That is saying a lot. Remember that like it was yesterday. Sounded like a freightr train for a good 15 minutes , took down countless 50 to 200 feet Pines on the road in front of our development. Took many days to recover in regards to tree clean-up, and getting power to those who did not have underground electric hook-up. 

Interesting the enhanced area today,  to a degree today fizzled,  where as the slight risk become the real deal. Maybe the heating, and more sun, not sure. 

I just knew it was a storm of that caliber purely by the INSANELY strong smell of freshly cut trees. So fragrant. The size of the trees that were taken down is quite impressive too. 

 

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Not on my side of Columbia. A few small branches down, but that’s it. Intense wind and rain for about 5-10mins.

When I was driving around I noticed how quickly even the small twigs and leafs one the road would stop. I am thinking there was a microburst or something that kept the damage pretty localized. I will post some photos now.

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Hey guys, I left town for a couple of days and haven’t had much cell access today hiking around Garrett Co.  Anything happ...oh come on!

VP2 says 38 mph thru the trees and 0.50” rain. Still reporting so we have power, which is good.

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Well this was not the snow squall I was looking for. Damn it! Back to my hibernation cave. :lol:

 

Seriously though, I was literally in the middle of the MoCo/Hoco (as hell broke loose) deal driving down 108 from Olney to Columbia. Shit was nuts, trees down across roads everywhere, but nothing looked  tornadoey. Was almost as intense as the derecho at one point for sure though. 

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@high risk

Severe tstorm watch issued till midnight just to the west of the LWX CWA... Garrett county MD is included in that watch... guess none of those storms make it here if they develop and move east?

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I am walking the area of Shaker Drive right at the intersection of 29 and 32 and the post above with the helicopter is accurate. Immense amount of very inconsistent tree damage. Including a couple homes that are close  to comoletely  destroyed by falling trees. I might put a few bucks on there being something more than straight line winds here. 

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9 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

I am walking the area of Shaker Drive right at the intersection of 29 and 32 and the post above with the helicopter is accurate. Immense amount of very inconsistent tree damage. Including a couple homes that are close  to comoletely  destroyed by falling trees. I might put a few bucks on there being something more than straight line winds here. 

Heard on the news the storm survey team will be out there. 

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44 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Heard on the news the storm survey team will be out there. 

The cell which moved from Winchester across northern Montgomery probably produced that. Cloud tops maxed out around 50kft which is a good size for this part of the country. 235k power outages in the DC area but that pales in comparison to the derecho where each county had about 240k in the dark for days.

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The cell which moved from Winchester across northern Montgomery probably produced that. Cloud tops maxed out around 50kft which is a good size for this part of the country. 235k power outages in the DC area but that pales in comparison to the derecho where each county had about 240k in the dark for days.

Yeah - I mean beyond the two wind cores (Columbia and Downtown DC) this wasn't a widespread derecho-style damaging wind event. Nonetheless, it definitely wasn't as meager as it could have been. Really decent event considering the bust potential. SPC was a bit too north with their enhanced perhaps. Great work by them though maintaining the 30% wind when they could have dialed it back to 15%. 

This event was a "win" - glad there were no injuries in the Columbia house. 

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The cell which moved from Winchester across northern Montgomery probably produced that. Cloud tops maxed out around 50kft which is a good size for this part of the country. 235k power outages in the DC area but that pales in comparison to the derecho where each county had about 240k in the dark for days.

If only this happened a month from now with higher dew points/temps with full sun from morning on and some extra sun altitude. There's no coincidence the derecho happened in late June. Could argue that's the absolute peak time to maximize a storm around here.

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Few rumbles and some rain just north of 100 in Ellicott City. Amazing how much difference there is across a few miles. Grew up in hickory ridge, will go check it out tomorrow. Any damage up by atholton?

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This afternoon actually seemed somewhat similar to though obviously nowhere near as widespread (wind gusts only into the 30s mph IMBY :() as the June 4, 2008 mid-afternoon event with a CAPE tongue through the region and decent enough 40-50+kt EB shear with storms decently strengthening as they got east of the mountains and into the metro region. Time of the day was similar as well though the June 4, 2008 event had more outages areawide if I remember correctly. The really impressive stuff was obviously more localized with this event.

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4 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

If only this happened a month from now with higher dew points/temps with full sun from morning on and some extra sun altitude. There's no coincidence the derecho happened in late June. Could argue that's the absolute peak time to maximize a storm around here.

The one thing about earlier season events is they can have a lot more shear to work with. 

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2 minutes ago, George BM said:

This afternoon actually seemed somewhat similar to though obviously nowhere near as widespread (wind gusts only into the 30s mph IMBY :() as the June 4, 2008 mid-afternoon event with a CAPE tongue through the region and decent enough 40-50+kt EB shear with storms decently strengthening as they got east of the mountains and into the metro region. Time of the day was similar as well though the June 4, 2008 event had more outages areawide if I remember correctly. The really impressive stuff was obviously more localized with this event.

100% agree. There were definitely similarities. That one was (as you said) way more intense/widespread but this one definitely had shades of that. That one (rightfully) was a moderate risk in our area. 

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17 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

If only this happened a month from now with higher dew points/temps with full sun from morning on and some extra sun altitude. There's no coincidence the derecho happened in late June. Could argue that's the absolute peak time to maximize a storm around here.

@Kmlwxis right about June storms.  The need to rapidly generate their own cold pool and benefit from a strong EML to push them over the terrain and prevent downsloping.

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8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

@Kmlwxis right about June storms.  The need to rapidly generate their own cold pool and benefit from a strong EML to push them over the terrain and prevent downsloping.

Don't get me wrong - June and July can still be fierce...but the fail potential is a lot higher. We tend to do pulse severe (isolated) in later June and July. The time of year we are in right now is great for severe if we can get the stars to align. We still benefit I guess from shorter wavelengths and somewhat more potent low pressure systems. 

Absolutely NO scientific backing here - but after today I feel pretty good about some good chances at severe as we head towards summer. Now if only we can track some Mid-Atlantic tropical trouble in fall. Add a decent December snow and we'll have had it all ;)

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Looking at SPC mesoanalysis... looks like the air mass across the region has recovered somewhat... so wouldn't be surprised to see a few storms come out of PA into the LWX CWA in next few hours as the front moves through... maybe an isolated severe storm too 

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