2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Hoping to end up somewhere between Yoda and you. Maybe I'm already there. 

You are.

[yoda]

Still 5 tor, 15 hail, 15 wind at 1630 OTLK 

30 wind and ENH risk remains where it is... maybe a super slight south shift 

[MN Transplant]

Up in the Deep Creek area.  Little gusty, heavy rain, some lightning.

[Mrs.J]

Had to take my daughter to an appt on the North end of Frederick. Full sun out up there. We live on the SW side of Frederick got home and clouds are really retreating down here now. Currently 74 72/64

[87storms]

think we'll be in and out of the clouds until gametime.  hopefully enough fuel to keep the line going.  there's some lightning with just about the entire line.

[yoda]

SPC going for the twin bill it appears in their 1630 disco

Quote

...NY into Mid Atlantic Region...

   A fast moving line of thunderstorms is tracking across central PA,
   and extends southwestward into WV.  This line may intensify this
   afternoon as it approaches the east coast, with a risk of locally
   damaging wind gusts.  Please refer to MCD #750 for further details.

   In the wake of the first line, multiple lines and clusters of
   thunderstorms are expected to form across parts of western/central
   PA into northern WV.  Fast flow aloft and sufficient time to heat
   will result in a favorable environment for a few severe storms
   capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail.  These storms will
   track eastward and approach the east coast by dark.  While damaging
   winds are the main threat, an isolated tornado or two cannot be
   ruled out.

[Eskimo Joe]

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Watch from 5/23/2019 1:02 PM to 8:00 PM EDT for Montgomery County, MD, Carroll County, MD. More information.

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Watch from 5/23/2019 1:02 PM to 8:00 PM EDT for Montgomery County, MD, Carroll County, MD. More information.

Pretty large amount of LWX CWA in the STWatch

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, yoda said:

Pretty large amount of LWX CWA in the STWatch

Am mobile, what the CAPE, lapse rates and supercell composite like in dc?

[yoda]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 218
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2019

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-041-
043-510-240000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0218.190523T1700Z-190524T0000Z/

MD
.    MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANNE ARUNDEL         BALTIMORE           CALVERT
CAROLINE             CARROLL             CECIL
CHARLES              FREDERICK           HARFORD
HOWARD               KENT                MONTGOMERY
PRINCE GEORGES       QUEEN ANNE`S        TALBOT
WASHINGTON


MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

BALTIMORE CITY

 

---

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 218
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2019

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

VAC013-043-047-059-061-069-079-099-107-113-137-139-153-157-177-
179-187-510-600-610-630-683-685-840-240000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0218.190523T1700Z-190524T0000Z/

VA
.    VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARLINGTON            CLARKE              CULPEPER
FAIRFAX              FAUQUIER            FREDERICK
GREENE               KING GEORGE         LOUDOUN
MADISON              ORANGE              PAGE
PRINCE WILLIAM       RAPPAHANNOCK        SPOTSYLVANIA
STAFFORD             WARREN


VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

ALEXANDRIA           FAIRFAX             FALLS CHURCH
FREDERICKSBURG       MANASSAS

 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 218
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2019

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

WVC003-037-065-240000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0218.190523T1700Z-190524T0000Z/

WV
.    WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERKELEY             JEFFERSON           MORGAN

 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 218
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2019

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

DCC001-240000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0218.190523T1700Z-190524T0000Z/

DC
.    DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

[high risk]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Am mobile, what the CAPE, lapse rates and supercell composite like in dc?

         sfc cape 2000-2500 across northern VA.   less to the east, but that will rapidly increase

         supercell composite around 4 or so

         lapse rates in the 6 or so range, with 6.5 upstream

[osfan24]

Line to the west is really booking it. Doesn't look that impressive right now, but maybe it strengthens as it heads east.

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, high risk said:

         sfc cape 2000-2500 across northern VA.   less to the east, but that will rapidly increase

         supercell composite around 4 or so

         lapse rates in the 6 or so range, with 6.5 upstream

Thanks. Might be some low topped gusty stuff with minimal lightning?  Whats shear looking like?

[George BM]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Thanks. Might be some low topped gusty stuff with minimal lightning?  Whats shear looking like?

45-55kt effective bulk shear as of 17z  across the region.

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, George BM said:

45-55kt effective bulk shear as of 17z  across the region.

Thanks

[Kmlwx]

First warning out. 

[Eskimo Joe]

This line looks like crap

[Kmlwx]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

This line looks like crap

If you believe the HRRR past two runs, the warned part of the line could grow upscale and deliver a decent hit to the area between DC and Balt. But HRRR could bust from 1-4 hours out. 

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This line looks like crap

short terms models have been advertising that all day. i think most will see better stuff when the front moves through later. unless this line picks up some steam

[H2O]

this is just the discreet prefrontal squall line that will stabilize the atmosphere just in time for the cold front.

[WxUSAF]

20min gusty showers inbound

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

this is just the discreet prefrontal squall line that will stabilize the atmosphere just in time for the cold front.

so true.

[osfan24]

Line by Hagerstown seems to have strengthened significantly. Curious to see if the rest of the line follows suit.

[Eskimo Joe]

Might salvage a good shelf cloud pic or two from this stuff.

[high risk]

For most of us, I think this will be the show.     And the line is moving into an area with decent shear and improving instability.    I'd expect further intensification.

[yoda]

1 minute ago, high risk said:

For most of us, I think this will be the show.     And the line is moving into an area with decent shear and improving instability.    I'd expect further intensification.

What about this evening that LWX mentioned in their AFD and SPC mentioned in the 1630 OTLK?  Hit and miss storms?

[osfan24]

Line is definitely strengthening, FWIW.

[Eskimo Joe]

Surprised that little blob west of Winchester isnt warned.

[Eskimo Joe]

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 5/23/2019 2:26 PM to 3:00 PM EDT for Montgomery County, MD. https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=34171840

[high risk]

8 minutes ago, yoda said:

What about this evening that LWX mentioned in their AFD and SPC mentioned in the 1630 OTLK?  Hit and miss storms?

              With this line being being more widespread than earlier thought, I think it's going to be more effective at wiping out instability over a larger area.   Also, the front isn't getting here until well after dark.    I had said earlier that I thought that the northern-most counties could be in the game around sunset (mainly based on the NAM nest), and maybe that's still possible, but the latest HRRR runs are not excited about the I-95 corridor until you get up into NJ.