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WxUSAF

March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs

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4 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

:It would seem to be a nice hit for Martinsburg to Hagerstown

Thanks.  weather.us just updated.  Shows snow breaking out in my 'hood Sunday afternoon around 1:00 and stays snow until 8:00-9:00 p.m.  Hopefully the trend continues and more of us can get in the game.

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I posted in the wrong thread.  Agree there are slight improvements.  My nonexpert comparison of 0z v. 12z EURO using 6z Monday as a reference point.  Slight improvements.  The low is centered over PAX River rather than SE PA.  There is a heavier snow band across NW MD-thru North Central MD.   If there is another 30-50 mile shift SE over the next day there will be a lot of happy people.

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4 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

It would seem to be a nice hit for Martinsburg to Hagerstown

I guess it is only Thursday..there is a speck of time for a Sunday even...hell tonight/tomorrow has changed a bit every run...by 18z it will be a subtropical low from the south

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Just now, Weather Will said:

I posted in the wrong thread.  Agree there are slight improvements.  My nonexpert comparison of 0z v. 12z EURO using 6z Monday as a reference point.  Slight improvements.  The low is centered over PAX River rather than SE PA.  There is a heavier snow band across NW MD-thru North Central MD.   If there is another 30-50 mile shift SE over the next day there will be a lot of happy people.

Plenty of time for that to happpend, we got trend on our side....hopefully

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Just now, WVclimo said:

Thanks.  weather.us just updated.  Shows snow breaking out in my 'hood Sunday afternoon around 1:00 and stays snow until 8:00-9;00 p.m.  Hopefully the trend continues and more of us can get in the game.

We need another tick south and it would be a huge hit out this way. As is it looks like 2 to 4 before flipping to rain. Euro has been slowing dropping south the last 3 runs. Hopefully that continues .

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Just now, BristowWx said:

I guess it is only Thursday..there is a speck of time for a Sunday even...hell tonight/tomorrow has changed a bit every run...by 18z it will be a subtropical low from the south

This one is a classic track and storm that develops for someone in the Mid ATL to get 4-8”. Its how most of our area gets 4-8” snow storms. It just depends on track. As PSU I think said, If it’s along VA/NC border, we all cash in on 4-8” if it’s southern Chesapeake then it’s a north and west forum snow. If it tracks over us then snow is up in Central PA. It’s literally all about the track, it’s clear cut. No cold air damning to look at or other crap

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Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

This one is a classic track and storm that develops for someone in the Mid ATL to get 4-8”. Its how most of our area gets 4-8” snow storms. It just depends on track. As PSU I think said, If it’s along VA/NC border, we all cash in on 4-8” if it’s southern Chesapeake then it’s a north and west forum snow. If it tracks over us then snow is up in Central PA. It’s literally all about the track, it’s clear cut. No cold air damning to look at or other crap

Are the models already completely accounting for the low blowing up off of the coast on Saturday in terms of where the next low will track?  I guess what I am asking is what factors can shift the low to track another 50 miles south from West to east (arctic high pressing more, slightly stronger Sat coastal low?)

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Henry Marguisitys old rule of thumb for Baltimore was if St Louis gets a good snow then Baltimore does too lol. Obviously that’s flawed some. But it does look like they’ll get 4-8 from this 

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Just now, Weather Will said:

Are the models already completely accounting for the low blowing up off of the coast on Saturday in terms of where the next low will track?  I guess what I am asking is what factors can shift the low to track another 50 miles south from West to east (arctic high pressing more, slightly stronger Sat coastal low?)

Just a weaker less amped storm I suppose? Faster northern stream push...

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Sterling NWS did a nice write up on the late weekend Not much change in the 12z guidance in regards to the storm that will impact the region late Sunday night into Monday morning. A potent shortage will eject out of the southwestern US into the southern Plains saturday night into Sunday morning, inducing cyclogenesis over Texas Sunday morning. Additionally, a shortwave rotating around a Canadian upper low will swing a trough out of Canada through the Great Lakes at roughly the same time. These two systems look to phase and bring the surface low up the east coast, however the exact track of this low is still a bit uncertain, though guidance seems to be coming to some sort of a consensus. Guidance has been trending slightly north over the past several runs it seems. The 12z GFS and Canadian deterministic runs seems to continue that trend, albeit slightly. Both are still slightly farther south compared to the 00z European run. So, what this means is that much of the area, especially along I-95 and southeast, will see a plain cold rain. However, north and west of I-95 is still a bit uncertain. Depending on where the low tracks, these areas could see some snow, or some rain/snow mix type of scenario. The 12z run of the GEFS ensembles lights up eastern WV and western/north-central MD with snow, so that seems to be the focus for wintry precipitation at this time. Given the lack of a blocking surface high to the north to funnel in cold air at the surface, would think this will be a rain or snow event primarily, and predicting exactly where that line sets up several days out is just not going to be accurate. So, have kept a fairly large area of rain/snow mix north and west of I-95, with all snow in the farthest northwest portions of the CWA. So, though some things are becoming more clear, there are still many question marks when it comes to northern VA, eastern WV and western/central MD. If there is enough moisture left on the back edge of the system, when cold air wraps back around, could see some snow across the entire area, but likely wouldn`t amount to much.

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18Z NAM is horrible verbatim for everyone in our forum but being the optimist there is a silver lining.  There are two lows.  One right about where we would want it that travels along the NV/VA line and another further North that travels through northern WV and off the coast.  Looks weird but if the southern low track were to verify without the northern low, we would be in business.  (I know it is the NAM at 84 hours.)

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ICON is a hit because of what it does with the first storm in New England.  Need that storm to keep amping.  The more amped the better chance for everyone from my area down into the MA on the next 

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18 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This is why nobody should be giving up before Saturday at the earliest.  Not saying the ICON is going to be right, but we're still in windshield wiper phase here

icon is the new JMA from 2007 where it used to sniff things out and make dry stuff wet

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