The 4 Seasons Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: BOX 3AM AFD: “SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Going to be totally reversed come the PM shift on Friday, mark my words. They already got slapped in the face by weighting heavily on a POS model, since now it shows warning snows back to NYC and W CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 RGEM coming on hot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Going to be totally reversed come the PM shift on Friday, mark my words. They already got slapped in the face by weighting heavily on a POS model, since now it shows warning snows back to NYC and W CT. I would bet hard NYC doesn’t see big snow tonight. Most models showing too much of a warm nose 850-900. It’s not really even in the margin of error for it to hold isothermal. I do think it’s possible places like Bridgeport certainly could though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I would bet hard NYC doesn’t see big snow tonight. Most models showing too much of a warm nose 850-900. It’s not really even in the margin of error for it to hold isothermal. I do think it’s possible places like Bridgeport certainly could though i didnt mean including, just back towards that way i.e. HPN, DXR, BDR area. NYC and LI def has issues with mixing. All of CT to RI and E MA look fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 8-12 river east seems a lock . Unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 8-12 river east seems a lock . Unreal Upton appears to not be issuing any advisories at all either for CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 The one time Sipprell should be going wild and he decides to cite fast flow as the reason for a small event . He’s one of those guys that looks for things that aren’t there and makes huge events out of nothing, and when a big event is imminent he downplays it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Upton appears to not be issuing any advisories at all either for CT Both offices will be furiously updating today as next shifts come on. Not good to leave it for next shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 The seasonal tendency may be scaring them from going big as well. Even this morning we are fighting more dry air here with the snow than I expected. It seems every event is having something go wrong in some way to minimize it so that may be in the back of their minds too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 6Z GFS coming in a bit more amped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Nah not quite as amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Nah not quite as amped. At 24 it looked it by 30 not so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Still a great hit though!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Yep, actually not a lot of change. Big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Taken em up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Nice looking system. I'll be driving back from Pit2 in the morning. For the purposes of driving, Messenger SE ticks will be fine by me. Note that I did call for snow by not buying a snowblower. Of all the luck..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 This is awesome. Compromise gfs/euro and it’s a good hit for WOR folks and huge hit for EOR folks. WOR: 4-8” EOR: 8-12” SEMA: 12-16” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I don't really buy the RGEM and other exorbitant solutions on some guidance, but a 6-9 maybe a 12 spot is possible. This thing is also moving along fairly quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Hopefully the NAM is right and I smoke altostratus. I don’t need the 24hrs of GFS nickle and dime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Upton tossing the gfs and going with a euro/nam blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Always a heady idea to fade Upton, so I’m all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Always a heady idea to fade Upton, so I’m all in. They seem to be batting at bottom of the lineup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: They seem to be batting at bottom of the lineup I pick on them but anyone paying attention to their winter forecasts knows. They choke on big events and can’t get smaller events right. It’s amazing the amount of knowledge and resources they have there... and yet, they continuously butt fumble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Storm to go conservative N of Boston and mention potential there is still that zonal influence on the flow as evidenced by Portland not really seeing a flake on some guidance from Saturday i like banding SE mass currently and would put up watches from Bos se back to HFD. I see a more ENE trajectory and maybe one key for ne mass is how far north this thing climb as a result of that kink in 5H flow by Carolina trends today are huge but I’d remain conservative N of Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 6z GFS is all snow, over 20" of snow forecasted for CHH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don't really buy the RGEM and other exorbitant solutions on some guidance, but a 6-9 maybe a 12 spot is possible. This thing is also moving along fairly quickly. "Ruled out" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 6z GFS is all snow, over 20" of snow forecasted for CHH. Nope...box says 1-3 for you Jimmy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Nope...box says 1-3 for you Jimmy! They are wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Coating of snow in Branford. Probably will up my map from 3-6'' to 4-8'' if I get time this afternoon...I was worried about mixing at the shore and only went 1-3'' there, but that might be a total bust on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 I don't think I will mix, CHH sure, ACK sure, but not anyone west of there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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