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snowman19

March, 2019

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Wow

Nam is cold and snowy for the area tonight into tomorrow

Sneaky warm layer at 850 to start (pellets or freezing rain) but dynamic cooling flips it over eventually. Surface temps should stay below freezing for the entire city given the low track and air mass to our N/NE.

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42 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

How far out on the horizon are you looking for 70 degrees?

The effective range of the ensemble guidance which is about 7-10 days. We will finish toward the colder side of the maximum temperatures experienced over the last 10 years. 

NYC max temperatures March 1-10 last 10 years.

2018-03-10 60 0
2017-03-10 70 0
2016-03-10 79 0
2015-03-10 54 0
2014-03-10 57 0
2013-03-10 55 0
2012-03-10 71 0
2011-03-10 61 0
2010-03-10 61 0
2009-03-10 70 0
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Just now, purduewx80 said:

Sneaky warm layer at 850 to start (pellets or freezing rain) but dynamic cooling flips it over eventually. Surface temps should stay below freezing for the entire city given the low track and air mass to our N/NE.

Very nice

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5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Another very tricky forecast for central nj to NYC tonight and tomorrow

Why is this tricky... this is a 2-4 for New York City simple. Central New Jersey probably rain ending as some snow.

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Just now, WEATHERMINATOR said:

Why is this tricky... this is a 2-4 for New York City simple. Central New Jersey probably rain ending as some snow.

Because the nam has hours of sleet and totals could be a lot higher or lower

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7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Another very tricky forecast for central nj to NYC tonight and tomorrow

I guess I can expect my usual dusting?

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I accidentally posted this in the obs thread, but here's what I'm thinking.  Lift in the DGZ looks excellent for the region, I'd be inclined to take overs on snowfall forecasts when taking a look at the soundings on their own.  I've found a lot of situations where we have little wind and a robust DGZ end up surprising on ratios.  This can be a surprise 3-6" for many in CT, 2-5" city/ north shore LI.  Not as bullish central/south Jersey, a bit more bullish further east in CT (outside the immediately NYC metro).

 

I see the GFS BL issue, I'm just not sure I'd take that over the DGZ and have a tough time trusting the GFS BL.

 

I would expect Upton to POST WWA's tonight.

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4 minutes ago, WEATHERMINATOR said:

Why is this tricky... this is a 2-4 for New York City simple. Central New Jersey probably rain ending as some snow.

SNE didn’t seem happy with that Nam run which is probably good down here. Low in general ticked SE which meant a colder outcome. SNE crew is saying it may have been convection happy and kicked it east prematurely. The storm ramping up quicker may cool the column down faster and make it colder anyway. This’ll be quite tricky actually. I’m expecting practically nothing for the coast, mostly a washout so anything would be nice. Never fun watching Boston get slammed while we get soaked or nothing. 

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9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I guess I can expect my usual dusting?

We actually aren’t considered central nj but I hear ya

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SNE didn’t seem happy with that Nam run which is probably good down here. Low in general ticked SE which meant a colder outcome. SNE crew is saying it may have been convection happy and kicked it east prematurely. The storm ramping up quicker may cool the column down faster and make it colder anyway. This’ll be quite tricky actually. I’m expecting practically nothing for the coast, mostly a washout so anything would be nice. Never fun watching Boston get slammed while we get soaked or nothing. 


Completely agree with this. I think an inch of slop is a good call

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

SNE didn’t seem happy with that Nam run which is probably good down here. Low in general ticked SE which meant a colder outcome. SNE crew is saying it may have been convection happy and kicked it east prematurely. The storm ramping up quicker may cool the column down faster and make it colder anyway. This’ll be quite tricky actually. I’m expecting practically nothing for the coast, mostly a washout so anything would be nice. Never fun watching Boston get slammed while we get soaked or nothing. 

No offense John but you’re always expecting nothing. You’re in Long Island so it might get trickier for you but New York City is really in a good spot here.

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7 minutes ago, WEATHERMINATOR said:

No offense John but you’re always expecting nothing. You’re in Long Island so it might get trickier for you but New York City is really in a good spot here.

Better to expect little and be surprised on the high end than vice versa. It’s a much tighter rope getting this one to work out down here than over SNE. We need the low to develop sooner so the cold air can crash down, and it stay far enough SE to not allow warm mid level air in. The safe bet is for mostly rain around the city and coast. If the Euro goes notably cooler at 12z it may be time to bite on something better. 

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Just now, jm1220 said:

Better to expect little and be surprised on the high end than vice versa. It’s a much tighter rope getting this one to work out down here than over SNE. We need the low to develop sooner so the cold air can crash down, and it stay far enough SE to not allow warm mid level air in. The safe bet is for mostly rain around the city and coast. If the Euro goes notably cooler at 12z it may be time to bite on something better. 

As a native Huntington Station-ite, this is one of those situations where being on the north shore helps.

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5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Better to expect little and be surprised on the high end than vice versa. It’s a much tighter rope getting this one to work out down here than over SNE. We need the low to develop sooner so the cold air can crash down, and it stay far enough SE to not allow warm mid level air in. The safe bet is for mostly rain around the city and coast. If the Euro goes notably cooler at 12z it may be time to bite on something better. 

Fair enough. I hope we get a surprise tomorrow. I was definitely surprised this morning with the inch and half of fluff. My wife is a teacher and she got to work at 9am there was traffic everywhere today. People don’t understand they need to slow down it’s snowing outside. Than they get into an accident and you drive by them and you know what they’re thinking.

by the way I don’t think the euro is as good as it used to be. What happened to that model?

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8 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

As a native Huntington Station-ite, this is one of those situations where being on the north shore helps.

too bad this winter wasn't colder, or else we'd have had lower ocean temps to help combat this issue on the south shore.

 

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The RGEM and ICON ticked SE tonight...its possible if there was an overcorrection and we tick back SE places like N Queens/Bronx/Manhattan might see decent snow...its probably going to be a nowcasting event

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54 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

I accidentally posted this in the obs thread, but here's what I'm thinking.  Lift in the DGZ looks excellent for the region, I'd be inclined to take overs on snowfall forecasts when taking a look at the soundings on their own.  I've found a lot of situations where we have little wind and a robust DGZ end up surprising on ratios.  This can be a surprise 3-6" for many in CT, 2-5" city/ north shore LI.  Not as bullish central/south Jersey, a bit more bullish further east in CT (outside the immediately NYC metro).

 

I see the GFS BL issue, I'm just not sure I'd take that over the DGZ and have a tough time trusting the GFS BL.

 

I would expect Upton to POST WWA's tonight.

I could easily see this being accumulating snow, even with surface temps at 33-34F, given fairly good growth and high precip rates and not enough depth of a surface warm layer to melt the flakes - could be pretty wet and agglomerated by the time they hit the surface (could be some of those massive agglomerates in a setup like this, which can happen with nice large dendritic source flakes coulpled with late partial melting and agglomeration of many flakes near the surface) for folks who are on the borderling, like places along 95 and the coast from NYC on NE-ward, including LI.  Same concern here there won't be enough precip for CNJ, but hoping I'm far enough NE to at least get some...

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Only the 10th time that March is starting with measurable snowfall in NYC since 1950. All the previous years finished March with negative temperature departure or a small positive one. So this fits with the delayed start to spring theme which has been common during the 2010’s.

Years since 1950 with measurable snow on March 1st in NYC and monthly temperature departure.

2015....-4.4

2009...-0.1

2005...-3.0

1968...+0.8

1963...+1.2

1957...-0.6

1953...+0.9

1952...-2.3

1951..-1.0

We've had a lot of cold Marches recently....March 2013 had two significant snowfalls, 2014 started with a week of highs in the 20s/low 30s with a storm missing South, March 2015 began with 20" snowpack at Central Park that lingered through much of the month, March 2017 had a 10" snow/sleet storm, and March 2018 had 4 Nor'easters.

I don't expect us to come close to those max temps Mar 1-10...next week looks extremely cold with 850s of -18C. I think we start torching with a GoA low as the -EPO breaks down after 3/15. But until then it's deep winter with several major snow threats. 

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1 minute ago, nzucker said:

We've had a lot of cold Marches recently....March 2013 had two significant snowfalls, 2014 started with a week of highs in the 20s/low 30s with a storm missing South, March 2015 began with 20" snowpack at Central Park that lingered through much of the month, March 2017 had a 10" snow/sleet storm, and March 2018 had 4 Nor'easters.

I don't expect us to come close to those max temps Mar 1-10...next week looks extremely cold with 850s of -18C. I think we start torching with a GoA low as the -EPO breaks down after 3/15. But until then it's deep winter with several major snow threats. 

We may not get that warm for March even after the 15th. Notice how the MJO forecast is weakening before getting to the warmer March phases of 5-6. Long range guidance keeps building higher pressures in SE Canada. So it could mean any warm ups getting tempered by easterly flow off the cold ocean. 

D82B8FED-9A4A-412C-BE66-57D8755C4F9D.gif.f3d0ee031046cec2e4bbcf5e090a9e3d.gif

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14 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

NAM all/mostly snow now for the City N/W for both upcoming storms, that would be a nice end to the year if true. 

Who said that has to be the end? :P

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LOL at the GGEM....take a peek at hours 186-216....funniest snow map of all time. Would this put us above average for the year?

gem_asnow_neus_37.png

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6 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

LOL at the GGEM....take a peek at hours 186-216....funniest snow map of all time. Would this put us above average for the year?

gem_asnow_neus_37.png

That would an epic BECS. 78 redux only further south

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Just now, Stormlover74 said:

That would an epic BECS. 78 redux only further south

are there negative odds I can place on this outcome?

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8 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

LOL at the GGEM....take a peek at hours 186-216....funniest snow map of all time. Would this put us above average for the year?

gem_asnow_neus_37.png

What a GEM !

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