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snowman19

March, 2019

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

March is less than a week away now. Discuss :-)

Growing up in 1950’s Brooklyn, rooting for “Dem Bums” our rallying cry was “Wait til next year”. As that’s nine months off, my only question for March is .... how long will it take our 2018/19 winter lion to finally out himself as a fully committed lamb? As always ....

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Is it not reasonable to anticipate a sloppy spring, providing a worthy pendant to a sloppy winter?

After all, the core drivers in the Pacific all remain as before.

If there is a development favoring something sharply different, I'd expect our site experts such as donsutherland1 to give us a heads up. There has been nothing thus far though.

 

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The new Euro has the same old repeating pattern we’ve been seeing since November right through day 10, hit the repeat button. That takes us through March 5th. We’re running out of time here

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GFS still has a very cold pattern starting March 3rd. Almost a week of well below normal temps. The cold is too overpowering so any storms stay way to the south. However if the model is overdoing the cold/confluence it's possible we can get something in here. I see a lot of people giving up, but having extended cold in early March at least gives us a chance. Right now it looks cold/dry, but it's too early to say for sure that we won't get any snow out of the cold pattern.

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30 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

GFS still has a very cold pattern starting March 3rd. Almost a week of well below normal temps. The cold is too overpowering so any storms stay way to the south. However if the model is overdoing the cold/confluence it's possible we can get something in here. I see a lot of people giving up, but having extended cold in early March at least gives us a chance. Right now it looks cold/dry, but it's too early to say for sure that we won't get any snow out of the cold pattern.

The models have been showing a very cold and/or snowy pattern at day 10 for over 4 months now. It simply stays in the long range and never moves forward in time. I think everyone is done falling for it at this point. 

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20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The models have been showing a very cold and/or snowy pattern at day 10 for over 4 months now. It simply stays in the long range and never moves forward in time. I think everyone is done falling for it at this point. 

We've had cold patterns this winter. Early December and that historic snowstorm that missed us to the south was a result. January ended up normal in the temperature department because we had some very cold periods in there. Cold patterns did materialize and we've had enough cold to have at least an average winter in the snowfall department, but we have been very unlucky. Four snow events missed us to the south due to confluence being too strong and bad timing. Southern NJ has gotten more snow than us which is pretty unusual. So I wouldn't say the models have always been wrong about day 10 cold this winter. They've been right a number of times, but we kept missing snowstorms due to poor timing. Hopefully the advertised cold pattern for early March will give us a snow event. Right now the pattern appears to be cold/dry but there's enough time for that to change.

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On 2/22/2019 at 4:43 PM, Snowshack said:

Always hate when the March thread comes around, winter is in the ninth inning.

Last March was epic

This winter has sucked. Time to say bye bye.

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2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Last March was epic

This winter has sucked. Time to say bye bye.

The thing that “saved” the last few March’s was the strong -NAO blocks that would pop up at the beginning of the month, this year, that ain’t happening. There’s nothing to stop the PAC jet from just blasting across the CONUS this time

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On 2/23/2019 at 2:56 PM, snowman19 said:

The models have been showing a very cold and/or snowy pattern at day 10 for over 4 months now. It simply stays in the long range and never moves forward in time. I think everyone is done falling for it at this point. 

The late Feb/early March cold is legit. The strong -EPO has at the very least brought the cold this season. 

We'll probably see some teens with highs in the 20s early March before things warm up. 

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_9.png

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4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The late Feb/early March cold is legit. The strong -EPO has at the very least brought the cold this season. 

We'll probably see some teens with highs in the 20s early March before things warm up. 

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_9.png

Hopefully we don’t get that big storm that the euro depicted today suppressed!

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

The late Feb/early March cold is legit. The strong -EPO has at the very least brought the cold this season. 

We'll probably see some teens with highs in the 20s early March before things warm up. 

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_9.png

The cold early March time frame, 1st-9th is legit, courtesy of the -EPO. I just don’t see a big snowstorm during that period, why? No -NAO. No -AO either. Flow is very fast and the PNA is negative, very negative in fact. The thing that separates us from the past several March’s is the NAO, the block is just not there this time

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Just now, WEATHERMINATOR said:

There’s a coating to an inch Wednesday night. 1-3 for Saturday and 4-6 on Monday. And next Wednesday looks interesting for a big storm! Very nice run

Saturday looks a tad too warm right now. 

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4 minutes ago, WEATHERMINATOR said:

There’s a coating to an inch Wednesday night. 1-3 for Saturday and 4-6 on Monday. And next Wednesday looks interesting for a big storm! Very nice run

Saturday does not look like 1-3 inches at all. It’s rain unless you’re in New England 

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3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Saturday does not look like 1-3 inches at all. It’s rain unless you’re in New England 

It's close to a nice event for everyone.

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