• Member Statistics

    15,773
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    mansour
    Newest Member
    mansour
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
snowman19

March, 2019

Recommended Posts

Guys there is record snowpack over Quebec/Labrador and the maritimes and chilly SSTs.  Of course you’re going to get a big back door season.  

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, tek1972 said:

Now that we are entering March, anything that falls next week won't be around long with that stronger March sun. Ready for Spring.


 

Except in my completely shaded driveway that has been a sheet/block of ice for weeks now. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Incredible how far apart the NAM and GFS are for the Friday storm given it’s only 54 hrs away.

If I were to guess I’d think the Friday deal is a dud and than the boundary moves up north and we get a light event whether it’d be a rain/snow mix or white rain. But the Monday’s event could be big

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

GFS is relatively big hit along with the ICON, CMC better than last night but still a bit warm....could it be real?

If the  12Z Euro basically agrees with the others then this is real for now - but as Don mentioned in his daily review last night in the Feb. thread  "Put another way, even as a moderate or significant snowfall remains possible, confidence in such an outcome could be fairly low until the possible event is 48-96 hours away" - right now we are just entering that window.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

FV3 is also quite warm

wasn't the FV3 delayed because overall it was usually too cold or am I mistaken  ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Incredible how far apart the NAM and GFS are for the Friday storm given it’s only 54 hrs away.

The RGEM and GGEM is somewhat close to the NAM on Friday now.  Notice how the NAM has consistently shown that event and not lost it even once since 84 hours.  When the NAM does that and differs from all other models it’s onto something more often than not.  Seeing the RGEM join it today could mean the Friday event is legit but it’s not likely to be anything big regardless 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GGEM still showing mostly rain for NYC for late sunday, and last night's EURO was too warm. If GFS is just correcting towards the other guidance, we could be heading for a storm in which you have to be northwest of NYC unfortunately. Quite a change from yesterday when the storm looked cold and suppression was a concern.  But it's still early and these models have been having a hard time getting a handle on things lately. So who knows. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

GGEM still showing mostly rain for NYC for late sunday, and last night's EURO was too warm. If GFS is just correcting towards the other guidance, we could be heading for a storm in which you have to be northwest of NYC unfortunately. Quite a change from yesterday when the storm looked cold and suppression was a concern.  But it's still early and these models have been having a hard time getting a handle on things lately. So who knows. 

If the Saturday or Sunday morning event occurs it’s rain.  The two chances for snow are the Friday event and the bigger one Monday.  The middle one is rain for the coast 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

If the Saturday or Sunday morning event occurs it’s rain.  The two chances for snow are the Friday event and the bigger one Monday.  The middle one is rain for the coast 

The models are showing the bigger monday storm as starting late sunday now. That's what I was talking about with the GGEM showing mostly rain. The monday bigger storm seems to be a sunday night event now and is trending warmer. In fact the colder GFS is showing the snowstorm starting sunday afternoon, but again GGEM is much warmer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The UKMET definitely came north Friday though it mostly still misses.  It shows the Saturday night even just offshore too 

What does the UKMET show for Monday?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, WEATHERMINATOR said:

Snow event it’s got a nor’easter with a benchmark track

I think the strength and location of the HP to the north and any blocking available  will have a lot to do with the final outcome.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't see how this wouldn't either hug the coast or cut inland. I suppose what we've got going for us is that it's a weak, progressive system. 

But I think it's gonna screw the coastal plain just like all storm tracks this season.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Don't see how this wouldn't either hug the coast or cut inland. I suppose what we've got going for us is that it's a weak, progressive system. 

But I think it's gonna screw the coastal plain just like all storm tracks this season.

Sure looks to be headed that way again based on seasonal and model trends

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Euro is no good. Amped and rain for most.

That’s the most likely scenario IMO. There is nothing to keep it from cutting. It has cutter/inland runner written all over it. The TPV gets stretched out, no -NAO

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, snowman19 said:

That’s the most likely scenario IMO. There is nothing to keep it from cutting. It has cutter/inland runner written all over it. The TPV gets stretched out, no -NAO

Nothing the most likely outcome this far out.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That’s the most likely scenario IMO. There is nothing to keep it from cutting. It has cutter/inland runner written all over it. The TPV gets stretched out, no -NAO

Then again we were supposed to get a huge cutter this week and that's not happening.

So I'm gonna wait and see a couple more cycles.

Also watching the Saturday system, I wouldn't be surprised if that drops a few inches on us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Nothing the most likely outcome this far out.

er um, seasonal pattern????   The odds of a cutter are quite high if you factor that in, plus a +AO and +NAO

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.