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snowman19

March, 2019

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16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Then again we were supposed to get a huge cutter this week and that's not happening.

So I'm gonna wait and see a couple more cycles.

Also watching the Saturday system, I wouldn't be surprised if that drops a few inches on us.

Thursday night into friday morning might be our best chance. NAM has a 3 inch snowfall for central Jersey and RGEM is close too. Just need a tiny nudge north.

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EURO has been unreliable this week. The Saturday storm (which is no longer) was an inch of rain just 2 days ago. The ensembles should be interesting. The GEFS and GEPS are all  offshore near the BM with not even one member running inland

image.thumb.png.8e3348aae55256ce378054f45c35d3a3.pngimage.thumb.png.ffa0f6f8a128b037267e09f80313a169.png

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14 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Thursday night into friday morning might be our best chance. NAM has a 3 inch snowfall for central Jersey and RGEM is close too. Just need a tiny nudge north.

The Euro came way north for Friday but is mostly still a miss.  Would need continued north pushes on that closer to what the NAM has had 

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No -NAO, SE ridge flexes, no -AO to lock the TPV in SE Canada, the TPV stretches and lifts north because there’s no AO block, storm will cut just like the Euro showed. Very believable scenario (cutter, rain) and IMO the most likely for Monday 

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Just now, snowman19 said:

No -NAO, SE ridge flexes, no -AO to lock the TPV in SE Canada, the TPV stretches and lifts north because there’s no AO block, storm will cut just like the Euro showed. Very believable scenario and IMO the most likely for Monday

The best part right now is how the area gets missed north tonight and missed south Friday.  Would be remarkable if again we see the PHL-NYC snow hole happen with two events within 3 days.   I think the Euro is way too amped on Monday.  It’s classic Op Euro bias since the upgrade.  Even so the system may track too close for the area to see entirely snow regardless.  

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3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The best part right now is how the area gets missed north tonight and missed south Friday.  Would be remarkable if again we see the PHL-NYC snow hole happen with two events within 3 days.   I think the Euro is way too amped on Monday.  It’s classic Op Euro bias since the upgrade.  Even so the system may track too close for the area to see entirely snow regardless.  

it's amazing. can't even get a decent event by accident....even the duds of 01-02 and 11-12 had a good January storm

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7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The best part right now is how the area gets missed north tonight and missed south Friday.  Would be remarkable if again we see the PHL-NYC snow hole happen with two events within 3 days.   I think the Euro is way too amped on Monday.  It’s classic Op Euro bias since the upgrade.  Even so the system may track too close for the area to see entirely snow regardless.  

Agree 100 %:clap:

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6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

No -NAO, SE ridge flexes, no -AO to lock the TPV in SE Canada, the TPV stretches and lifts north because there’s no AO block, storm will cut just like the Euro showed. Very believable scenario (cutter, rain) and IMO the most likely for Monday 

GFS, Para, CMC, and Euro all have a significant event late Sunday/Monday. Still too early for details. 

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2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

GFS, Para, CMC, and Euro all have a significant event late Sunday/Monday. Still too early for details. 

I think its a good idea to pay more attention to the Ensembles ……….because as noted by SnowGoose "I think the Euro is way too amped on Monday.  It’s classic Op Euro bias since the upgrade" and the other models OP runs are also less then reliable...

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2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I think its a good idea to pay more attention to the Ensembles ……….because as noted by SnowGoose "I think the Euro is way too amped on Monday.  It’s classic Op Euro bias since the upgrade" and the other models OP runs are also less then reliable...

The 12Z EPS on preliminary panel looks to be flatter on Monday than the Op.  Right now I would just root for something good to come out of Friday or Saturday because those potential events impact what Monday does somewhat 

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2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I think its a good idea to pay more attention to the Ensembles ……….because as noted by SnowGoose "I think the Euro is way too amped on Monday.  It’s classic Op Euro bias since the upgrade" and the other models OP runs are also less then reliable...

I believe ensembles also look good for a wintry event as well. 

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8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

15Z SREF just jumped on Friday.  It’s a SE PA C-SNJ max but it had virtually squat on the 09Z run.  That said the NAM will probably go south now 

image.thumb.png.aa97022a01da9c5310b94ef5fdb37c49.png

Was suspicious of the NAM because of that, but now it seems like it may be on to something.

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58 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

No -NAO, SE ridge flexes, no -AO to lock the TPV in SE Canada, the TPV stretches and lifts north because there’s no AO block, storm will cut just like the Euro showed. Very believable scenario (cutter, rain) and IMO the most likely for Monday 

You seen the eps

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56 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

15Z SREF just jumped on Friday.  It’s a SE PA C-SNJ max but it had virtually squat on the 09Z run.  That said the NAM will probably go south now 

Nam didn't go south at 18Z

namconus_ref_frzn_us_38.png

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Just now, NEG NAO said:

Nam didn't go south at 18Z

namconus_ref_frzn_us_38.png

It didn't go south but it's much drier. This 18z run gives a 1 inch snowfall for much of NJ, while the 12z run was 3 inches for central NJ.

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5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

It didn't go south but it's much drier. This 18z run gives a 1 inch snowfall for much of NJ, while the 12z run was 3 inches for central NJ.

It’s more consolidated meaning the precipitation shield is bigger which we needed if you want snow in New York City. Albeit it’ll be an inch or so but that plus Monday it’s looking very interesting times for tracking

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7 minutes ago, WEATHERMINATOR said:

Icon is a foot of snow for Central Park. Very impressive snowstorm

 

sunday night and moves out by Monday at 7-8am

You have to give pause that it's the ICON though. I would love that solution as much as you guys but sadly, it's the ICON showing that right now

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Just now, BombsAway1288 said:

You have to give pause that it's the ICON though. I would love that solution as much as you guys but sadly, it's the ICON showing that right now

ITs the same track as the eps and eps is the best model. In fact the eps is a bit southeast of the icon so that gives you that extra 50-60 miles of leeway for Long Island to enjoy a mostly snow event

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5 minutes ago, WEATHERMINATOR said:

ITs the same track as the eps and eps is the best model. In fact the eps is a bit southeast of the icon so that gives you that extra 50-60 miles of leeway for Long Island to enjoy a mostly snow event

also if we do have snow cover Monday its not going to quickly melt because most of next week temps will be below to well below normal

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GFS gets pushed east a little too early, but decent run and exactly what we wanted to see after the EURO.  GFS has a huge amount of cold air coming in as the storm hits and thats what shuns it a bit east.

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19 minutes ago, WEATHERMINATOR said:

ITs the same track as the eps and eps is the best model. In fact the eps is a bit southeast of the icon so that gives you that extra 50-60 miles of leeway for Long Island to enjoy a mostly snow event

It is. The track is perfect just like the EPS. Just need the global OP's to hop on board although in a winter like this with so many last minute changes, I'm not too sure I would want to be in the OP's bullseye 4-5 days out. The EPS? That's a different story. Put me in the bullseye of that any day!

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10 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

GFS gets pushed east a little too early, but decent run and exactly what we wanted to see after the EURO.  GFS has a huge amount of cold air coming in as the storm hits and thats what shuns it a bit east.

Honestly bro that’s as best as it’s going to get because it’s a fast mover.

 

edit: gfs FV3 is a stronger storm and closer to coast, doesn’t look like any rain for the immediate nyc region but Long Island switches over. Too far to be looking at that now. Very nice pattern coming up

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18z runs were fun. Fv3 is pretty damn close to the often confused ICON, maybe the blind can lead the blind. OP GFS is nice as well. Would be an epic threading of the needle given the poor teles.

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3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

No -NAO, SE ridge flexes, no -AO to lock the TPV in SE Canada, the TPV stretches and lifts north because there’s no AO block, storm will cut just like the Euro showed. Very believable scenario (cutter, rain) and IMO the most likely for Monday 

Not necessarily, a lack of blocking in a -EPO pattern also leads to very progressive systems, which can sometimes work out for us.

Blocking can even occasionally cause a storm to get overamped and cut inland vs a more progressive scenario.

It'll also be March where shortening wave lengths render the AO mute. 

The Euro looks way too amped to me, ensembles are much flatter. 

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53 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

18z runs were fun. Fv3 is pretty damn close to the often confused ICON, maybe the blind can lead the blind. OP GFS is nice as well. Would be an epic threading of the needle given the poor teles.

Ensembles look nice

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