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stormtracker

The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

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43 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

November is not that far away.  Lord willing we will be back to fight another day.  

I might have to retreat and regroup but I never surrender. 

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:
10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
I might have to retreat and regroup but I never surrender. 

November looks awful on cfs

Good. Zero snow in November. Then maybe we have a chance.

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1 hour ago, Ji said:

weve been stuck on 10 day storm for like 6 straight days

 

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yup. I said that yesterday.  Just 10 days away.  Just 10 days away. 

It’s the same threat though.  But the euro has been amplifying the trough more and more which would slow the progression some. That’s not a bad thing. Annoying but not bad. 

The key to getting a strong storm there is to get something on the tail of the trough stretched out to our north to drop in and phase. The gfs just elongates the trough and slides everything across to our north and suppressed. The euro fv3 and ggem all favor digging the northern stream and have a favorable look for a storm imo.  

As for the euro op. That storm was about to go thermal nuclear. Fully phased monster bomb. It’s hard to tell exactly how far west the rain snow line would get.  That storm was going to pull due north as it bombs but at some point the upper energy would catch up and it would take on some east component. Whether it gets to 95 or the blue ridge and then what happens with any wrap around depends on the final track of the h5 low. But this is silly. That was the most amplified of every run and every ensemble. Worrying about a 30-50 mile placement of the rain snow line day 10 is a waste of time. 

I totally get the curiosity and wanting to debate it and wishing we could see what that bomb would have done and most aren’t really worried about it but for anyone who is seriously worried about those details on a day 10 op all I can say is good luck surviving the next week with your sanity intact. 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

It’s the same threat though.  But the euro has been amplifying the trough more and more which would slow the progression some. That’s not a bad thing. Annoying but not bad. 

The key to getting a strong storm there is to get something on the tail of the trough stretched out to our north to drop in and phase. The gfs just elongates the trough and slides everything across to our north and suppressed. The euro fv3 and ggem all favor digging the northern stream and have a favorable look for a storm imo.  

As for the euro op. That storm was about to go thermal nuclear. Fully phased monster bomb. It’s hard to tell exactly how far west the rain snow line would get.  That storm was going to pull due north as it bombs but at some point the upper energy would catch up and it would take on some east component. Whether it gets to 95 or the blue ridge and then what happens with any wrap around depends on the final track of the h5 low. But this is silly. That was the most amplified of every run and every ensemble. Worrying about a 30-50 mile placement of the rain snow line day 10 is a waste of time. 

I totally get the curiosity and wanting to debate it and wishing we could see what that bomb would have done and most aren’t really worried about it but for anyone who is seriously worried about those details on a day 10 op all I can say is good luck surviving the next week with your sanity intact. 

I'm totally not curious. It was gonna rain in my yard. On to the the next run.

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1 hour ago, Ji said:
1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:
All the usual caveats apply.. day 10+ yada, yada, but this is a nice look on the mean.
Now we wait for the inevitable incremental DEGRADATION on future runs, lol.
usual.thumb.png.eb9c2388cb12cd0f20ce7250d38ab8e4.png

The 00z runs this winter have been awful and a constant step back. How many times this winter has Bob woken up to winter being over

Every morning it’s the same. Groundhog Day. 

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FV3 is a gnat's hair from a euro result. As is it's a powder keg with a damp fuse and just doesnt line up perfectly.  A little speed adjustment...faster n/s or slower s/s and boom.

yMcXMXa.png

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We need to stop wish casting for a snow event. It's most likely over for this year. Teleconnections suck for the area and nothing lives up to 10+days as advertised so then it all goes to crap. Let's just stop it and move on. Everyone to the spring forum. Cya next season.

 

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

FV3 is a gnat's hair from a euro result. As is it's a powder keg with a damp fuse and just doesnt line up perfectly.  A little speed adjustment...faster n/s or slower s/s and boom.

yMcXMXa.png

I hate to go all newbie here but does any on want to accept the challenge of trying to take 30 seconds to educate me a bit about how to interpret this image?  I understand the concepts of geopotential height and vorticity.  But how do you recognize the shortwave?  How do you pick out the northern and southern streams.  What is phasing? 

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14 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I hate to go all newbie here but does any on want to accept the challenge of trying to take 30 seconds to educate me a bit about how to interpret this image?  I understand the concepts of geopotential height and vorticity.  But how do you recognize the shortwave?  How do you pick out the northern and southern streams.  What is phasing? 

Boy, I wish I could feel confident giving you a decent "lesson" but there are others in here that would do a much better job.  There are definitely some good resources online if you want to google it.  I learned by forcing myself to always look at h5 vort first before the surface and then flip to the surface panels and see how it translates.  After enough repetition you start to grasp it.  TT is great for this because you can quickly and easily flip between runs and parameters.  Others more knowledgeable in here often see small features and changes that I dont see.  

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I'm totally not curious. It was gonna rain in my yard. On to the the next run.

For a time yes, but if that monster upper cut off kept tracking east it could have ended well.  March with the crazy amplifications and cut off lows is the one time when wrap around back side snow actually works out more often. 

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29 minutes ago, luckyamaha said:

We need to stop wish casting for a snow event. It's most likely over for this year. Teleconnections suck for the area and nothing lives up to 10+days as advertised so then it all goes to crap. Let's just stop it and move on. Everyone to the spring forum. Cya next season.

 

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This was either a joke or a top 10 garbage post of the year. Sometimes I don’t get sarcasm on here so I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt that this was supposed to be funny. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

This was either a joke or a top 10 garbage post of the year. Sometimes I don’t get sarcasm on here so I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt that this was supposed to be funny. 

Go with your instincts. It was garbage post.

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I said this earlier today, but ENSO is Neutral without El Nino conditions, and general -AAM. However, a Kelvin wave is developing which may warm the subsurface and keep in +Neutral N. Hemisphere conditions territory.  

The 1996 analog had -EPO around this time. 

ll.gif

It remained cold. 

lll.gif

 

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12 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

My bet is garbage

 

11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Go with your instincts. It was garbage post.

Forget that it was a deb message, anyone has the right to make the case it won’t snow, but he did it in the least substantive way possible. 

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43 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I hate to go all newbie here but does any on want to accept the challenge of trying to take 30 seconds to educate me a bit about how to interpret this image?  I understand the concepts of geopotential height and vorticity.  But how do you recognize the shortwave?  How do you pick out the northern and southern streams.  What is phasing? 

I’ll take a shot.  Hopefully one of the experts can point out where I have it wrong.  

Here is the look at 216.  You can see the NS diving into Montana.  You can see the SS one over northern Texas. 3CAE47FE-A226-4276-BA55-DD7722B0AC2E.thumb.png.39b3aa9e45fb8196c167090a50b3af47.png

Here they are at 234.  The NS is now centered over N Dakota and Iowa.  The SS one is centered over GA and SC with energy trailing back through Alabama and Arkansas.  Notice how they are close to each other but haven’t yet phased.  EC49F763-01D5-45C9-9D9E-3D1DCBD2984B.thumb.png.1d24e383592b548d06a89eaa8c65244a.png

Here they are at 240.  They are beginning to phase.  Toggle back to the surface panel to see the effect.  The storm will start to bomb out and hook towards the coast.  97A100D4-6050-492B-9C2F-3A226AD133EE.thumb.png.2d6cd67e84f6deb7ef611e9ff54d0dbc.png

Here they are at 246.  Phasing is well underway and you’ll see the storm really bombing out.  It just happens to late for us.   We need that phase to happen around 222. 

F80C652C-2793-4979-B007-A111B0F4ABE1.png

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5 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

I’ll take a shot.  Hopefully one of the experts can point out where I have it wrong.  

Here is the look at 216.  You can see the NS diving into Montana.  You can see the SS one over northern Texas.

Here they are at 234.  The NS is now centered over N Dakota and Iowa.  The SS one is centered over GA and SC with energy trailing back through Alabama and Arkansas.  Notice how they are close to each other but haven’t yet phased. 

Here they are at 240.  They are beginning to phase.  Toggle back to the surface panel to see the effect.  The storm will start to bomb out and hook towards the coast. 

Here they are at 246.  Phasig is well underway and you’ll see the storm really bombing out.  It just happens to late for us.   We need that phase to happen around 222. 

 

I appreciate your time.

So when people talk about NS or SS shortwaves, they are referring to areas of elevated vorticity?

And phasing is when areas of elevated vorticity from north and south approach each other and merge?

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1 hour ago, luckyamaha said:

We need to stop wish casting for a snow event. It's most likely over for this year. Teleconnections suck for the area and nothing lives up to 10+days as advertised so then it all goes to crap. Let's just stop it and move on. Everyone to the spring forum. Cya next season.

 

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

 

 

Those indexes often miss the picture. They are like poor man cheat sheets but cannot replace reading the actual longwave pattern. 

I don’t know what the indexes say for 3-5 days from now but this looks mighty good to me. 

8CDE7EF6-02C8-4ADD-A524-92D8199348B7.thumb.png.ceceb97401c4fe8d1da0dc5277bafb28.png

21CF140B-652B-42D3-9AC5-6B89747E8CEF.thumb.png.2bc1c69615c1ee4a43c7c64a4377e053.png

Monster epo ridge.  50/50 vortex.  West based NAO blocking.  Severely fractured and displaced TPV. Trough east of Hawaii to help pump some ridging in the southwest.  Way more hostile looks than that have led to snow in the past.  Maybe it’s not the most ideal textbook perfect hecs look ever but it’s decent.  

If you are referring to the indexes in 10 days as the threat happens then that is irrelevant.  Big storms often happen once the blocking that set them up breaks down.  Without that look day 3-5 we wouldn’t get the whole chain of events that leads to the day 10 threat.  But that look is only 3 dats away now and across all guidance.  

Could the gfs be right and storm one cuts then everything behind it gets suppressed, sure.  Could it amp up too much and rain yea.  Or maybe we get snow.  It’s not a super high probability but no day 10 threat is but if you can’t see the reasons the next 13 days or so might yield snow in the mid Atlantic from that day 3-5 look then you don’t know how to actually analyze a pattern and are misusing indexes.  Or you are trolling.  

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, luckyamaha said:

We need to stop wish casting for a snow event. It's most likely over for this year. Teleconnections suck for the area and nothing lives up to 10+days as advertised so then it all goes to crap. Let's just stop it and move on. Everyone to the spring forum. Cya next season.

 

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shut up chuck.

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1 hour ago, luckyamaha said:

We need to stop wish casting for a snow event. It's most likely over for this year. Teleconnections suck for the area and nothing lives up to 10+days as advertised so then it all goes to crap. Let's just stop it and move on. Everyone to the spring forum. Cya next season.

 

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

 

buh bye!

 

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, luckyamaha said:

We need to stop wish casting for a snow event. It's most likely over for this year. Teleconnections suck for the area and nothing lives up to 10+days as advertised so then it all goes to crap. Let's just stop it and move on. Everyone to the spring forum. Cya next season.

 

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatal

 

 

 

What I would LOVE to move on to would be a dry March.  If it's not going to snow anymore(a very real possibility), then PLEASE let it be drier than normal.  Better yet, bring on a good old fashioned drought.  

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