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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand


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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Well it’s kind of a balance here. The trend towards the tpv diving further southwest will kill that March 1-2 threat. That will cause ridging ahead of it. But it will create a better threat around March 4-6 period if something phases. 

I think overall we have increased our chances of a big big storm but decreased our chances for just getting some snow.  This is more a boom or bust setup. People can that however you want. 

I agree, but kicking the can in March is pretty chancy. It is what it is though. If what the Euro is advertising towards D10 today is real, I am all over that.

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6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I agree, but kicking the can in March is pretty chancy. It is what it is though. If what the Euro is advertising towards D10 today is real, I am all over that.

I’m not saying I like this progression better. I’m kind of indifferent. I like the idea of a big storm at this point.  But this is a risky way to go as you say. 

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

yes its close but this is really where blocking can help in terms of phasing potential.....so in reality we are really down to 1 chance. There is a little clipper action next week and some front end garbage for March 1 but our final chance is really that time period. as bob said..with this progressive flow...it will be hard to lock this down

So far there have been 2 storms that have been legit threats 9 days out this winter. This is the 3rd.   Models are coming to similar solutions despite differences in the medium range.  

The high and the blocking are in a favorable spot, so the progressive flow is actually helping, cause it's bound to produce a wave during the favorable window.   The only ways we lose is if it amplifies too much, or the GFS shred factory.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I’m not saying I like this progression better. I’m kind of indifferent. I like the idea of a big storm at this point.  But this is a risky way to go as you say. 

At this point I can get into the "go big or go home" concept. I kinda need it here to make this winter memorable- well other than it being remembered for being a big ass dud, lol.

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1 minute ago, dallen7908 said:

22-34% of EPS members give the DCarea-PSUland > 6" of snow during the next 12 days.  Much stronger signal than the previous 4 cycles where the percentages were 14-20%, 10-16%, 14-16%, and 6-18%. 

Haven’t looked at the snow output yet, actually working today and sneaking in some weathering when I can..but with that h5 I just posted I knew it had to have some “wins” in the members.  That’s a crazy amplified look for day 11!

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@psuhoffman, recently there has been some "disappointment" suggested by some about the Mar. 1-3 possibility, which is now looking a lot less decent.  However, my impression from the past few or so days is that that time period was not exactly quite favorable yet anyhow, though there were some good model runs for that event.  It seems that you, @showmethesnow, and @Bob Chill were more "enthused" (so to speak) about the Mar. 4-8 time frame.  Maybe I've got that wrong, but that's the impression I had.  So while I haven't completely written off the first couple days of March, I've been focusing on the first full week of the month as our better window.  Not sure if I have that idea correct, but like I said, in reading the past few days that's the overall sense I got.

With all that said, and with all the fail scenarios firmly in place in my mind (always gotta have those in mind around here!), that 500-mb setup you show is very intriguing!  Could come to nothing in the end of course...but that's as good a signal as you'll see in that time range.  I'm not even thinking or looking (seriously) for some big 1993 bomb or other HECS here...a solid warning-level snow followed by a couple days of legit cold would be a fine way to have winter bow out for the year.  Of course, I sure as hell won't complain if the models "latch on" to a HECS setup and we end up with that...it would be loads of fun!

And I have to say something about the "sun angle" nay-sayers...yes, it's a factor of course, especially as you get into March.  But it gets annoying hearing it year after year, as if it automatically means we can't do well with snow.  Not to mention it was annoying to have it derail this thread for about 3 pages the other day.  Sun angle and increasing average temperature doesn't in any way preclude very good accumulating snows even on paved surfaces during a good event.  Sure, the snow may in most cases disappear afterward with a couple of sunny days, but I've also experienced enough good events followed by some cold air right after for a day or so (i.e., below freezing highs in March).  And to beat the dead horse :deadhorse:I'll say again like other have, that we've had many recent warning-level snow events in March, even into the 2nd half of the month.  I'll keep saying that as long as the tired sun angle argument is trotted out!

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Well it’s kind of a balance here. The trend towards the tpv diving further southwest will kill that March 1-2 threat. That will cause ridging ahead of it. But it will create a better threat around March 4-6 period if something phases. 

I think overall we have increased our chances of a big big storm but decreased our chances for just getting some snow.  This is more a boom or bust setup. People can that however you want. 

Can we vote?   I’d go with the HECS or bust vs a little snow. 

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12 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

Can we vote?   I’d go with the HECS or bust vs a little snow. 

Hmm. As much as I enjoy every snow we get, I'm in the go big or bust vs just a small snow. We've had plenty of small snows this winter. I need one that'll break my back from shoveling. I couldn't care less if it melts in a few days, it's the thrill of the ride!

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Been doing some research. Saw that BWI has had 19 months of March with double digit snow since 1884. Of those 19 times, 14 of them came in winters that were below climo heading into March. Is there a meteorology explanation for why the majority of our big March snowstorms have come in otherwise lackluster winters, or is it just coincidence?

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2 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Been doing some research. Saw that BWI has had 19 months of March with double digit snow since 1884. Of those 19 times, 14 of them came in winters that were below climo heading into March. Is there a meteorology explanation for why the majority of our big March snowstorms have come in otherwise lackluster winters, or is it just coincidence?

Well, 19 samples is too small to make definitive judgements, but anecdotally, it sometimes seems like what you might call weather "regimes" or "patterns of patterns" seem to have a wavelength of 1 to 3 months.  So for you guys, late January and February seem to be your snow moneymakers, so if you are having a March which is in any way conducive to snow, then perhaps that means that there is a better than average chance that late Jan and Feb were warm.

Conversely, when you have a good Jan and Feb, it may be more likely that March will be warm

Or it could just be random chance.

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5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Well, 19 samples is too small to make definitive judgements, but anecdotally, it sometimes seems like what you might call weather "regimes" or "patterns of patterns" seem to have a wavelength of 1 to 3 months.  So for you guys, late January and February seem to be your snow moneymakers, so if you are having a March which is in any way conducive to snow, then perhaps that means that there is a better than average chance that late Jan and Feb were warm.

Conversely, when you have a good Jan and Feb, it may be more likely that March will be warm

Or it could just be random chance.

Yeah in all honesty I'm probably reaching because I want a snowy March. I stick by my guns on one thing though, it's been 58 years since the last March with 20+ inches of snow at BWI, so it's going to happen again eventually! I'll say this every year until it happens LOL

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