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Itstrainingtime

Central PA Feb/March 2019 Disco: More Snow In Our Future?

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46 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

The Canadian Meso really want to give that "I have seen us get 6 from this situation before" Horst statement some backing.  Not sure where he lives but this may be right over his house.  It sends a bowling ball of higher rates and forcing right over south PA tonight.   

 

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Horst lives in Manheim township, just north if Lancaster city.

That would be about 5 inches for him.

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7 minutes ago, daxx said:

Well the nam just took it up a notch tomorrow night!  Pretty big hit with snow tomorrow night for lsv.

Yea, just saw that.  LSV is Named.  Could be quite the weekend.  

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Tomorrow night? Do tell please...

Not just one nam but both!  2 to 4 tomorrow.  Maybe that again tomorrow night.  If temps trend well I could see more.  Im going to see where the rest of the models go before i get to excited.

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4 minutes ago, daxx said:

Not just one nam but both!  2 to 4 tomorrow.  Maybe that again tomorrow night.  If temps trend well I could see more.  Im going to see where the rest of the models go before i get to excited.

Some sleet and slop at the start of tomorow night but I think even being cautious that is at least 4" more (from tonight) for York and Lancaster...rates overcome temps.  

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6 minutes ago, daxx said:

Not just one nam but both!  2 to 4 tomorrow.  Maybe that again tomorrow night.  If temps trend well I could see more.  Im going to see where the rest of the models go before i get to excited.

 

1 minute ago, bubbler86 said:

Some sleet and slop at the start of tomorow night but I think even being cautious that is at least 4" more (from tonight) for York and Lancaster...rates overcome temps.  

What a way to start off the 0z suite. Time for bed...getting up by 4am for work tomorrow. Looking forward to @Blizzard of 93 posts with maps at about the time I get up...

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The LR HRRR is also favoring York and Lancaster getting the business.  Not extreme like the Nam but that is two 0Z's suggesting Wave 2 may be a real threat. 

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0z NAM is pretty similar to what the 12z Euro had today with regards to the Sunday night-Mon system, and that's generally been a winning combo in the short-intermediate range when those two are on the same page. So we'll see how the rest of 0z evolves with that system. Western and Central PA get ripped on those two solutions. Actually just about the whole state sans the Philly region do but the issue in our subforum is the very far southern tier along the PA/MD line and potential mixing/rain. The GFS has been a more southern solution but given how it handled tonight's system up until about yesterday or so.. It may be running these systems too far south in the pattern we have this week. 

Once again, this system does not look to have a high to the north. This low will be running strictly on wherever the gradient sets and we won't have a CAD setup. So instead of a large mixing area, we'll likely have an actual rain/snow line for a change or perhaps a very narrow mixing area. You can see that illustrated on the P-type map from the NAM, for example. Establishment of some fresh snowpack tonight and perhaps tomorrow night for some areas can only help. 

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3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

0z NAM is pretty similar to what the 12z Euro had today with regards to the Sunday night-Mon system, and that's generally been a winning combo in the short-intermediate range when those two are on the same page. So we'll see how the rest of 0z evolves with that system. Western and Central PA get ripped on those two solutions. Actually just about the whole state sans the Philly region do but the issue in our subforum is the very far southern tier along the PA/MD line and potential mixing/rain. The GFS has been a more southern solution but given how it handled tonight's system up until about yesterday or so.. It may be running these systems too far south in the pattern we have this week. 

Once again, this system does not look to have a high to the north. This low will be running strictly on wherever the gradient sets and we won't have a CAD setup. So instead of a large mixing area, we'll likely have an actual rain/snow line for a change or perhaps a very narrow mixing area. You can see that illustrated on the P-type map from the NAM, for example. Establishment of some fresh snowpack tonight and perhaps tomorrow night for some areas can only help. 

Great post and great to have a met chime in and keep us straight laced.  The thing about the 0Z Nam, at least for the LSV , is Wave 2 ends up being the big dog anyway for that area.  Not a fun 3 days to try and forecast.   Wave 2 is really the "coastal" of these and has the biggest potential to over perform I think.

 

 

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Differences between the GFS and Nam, this close, are just not understandable to me.  Nam is wrapping up at 7AM tomorrow and has basically shut snow off in the southern LSV while GFS is in a full swing moderate snow for the same area at that time period. 

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Whoever ends up 5-10 miles north of the rain/snow line on Sunday is going to be on here yelling "pouring" and "fatties" a lot.  Rgem cut back on total qpf for wave 1 this evening.  I think we can all agree that the GFS has done terribly on temps lately but pushed LSV up into the 40's after a fairly moderate rain storm tomorrow night.  Yuck. 

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Snow has started here. Time to freshen the glacier up, the windstorm blew a lot of pine needles and other junk on it haha. Base snowpack running roughly about 4-5". The 2/12 portion of the pack under the top 2" is back to being bulletproof again. 

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Wow.  Just headed off to bed with HEAVY snow falling.  Big flakes.  Dropped the temp from 32.0 down to 27.7 in only 30 minutes.  About 0.6" of snow on the board and it is definitely snowing at 1"/hr rates at the moment.  Will the NAM be right come morning???

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9 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Wow.  Just headed off to bed with HEAVY snow falling.  Big flakes.  Dropped the temp from 32.0 down to 27.7 in only 30 minutes.  About 0.6" of snow on the board and it is definitely snowing at 1"/hr rates at the moment.  Will the NAM be right come morning???

Snow here in Marysville! 

Moderate just began in the last 20 minutes. All surfaces covered!

Radar looks solid for several hours of snow. 

NAM for the win ?!?

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The 0z Euro was a fantastic run for most of CTP with 3 snow events through Monday.

It still gives all of southern PA 2-4 inches tonight.

Then, it is juicing up the event tomorrow night into Saturday am, adding another 1-2 inches for most of us.

The Sunday storm absolutely crushes the  I -81 corridor of PA. It does bring in some mixing at the height of the storm to York & Lancaster.

Here are the 3 Euro maps as the snow accumulates for all 3 events. The last map is the final total when all 3 events are done on Monday !

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E2AFFBA8-838F-4FA0-BCF7-46309FC09D71.png

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42 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 0z Euro was a fantastic run for most of CTP with 3 snow events through Monday.

It still gives all of southern PA 2-4 inches tonight.

Then, it is juicing up the event tomorrow night into Saturday am, adding another 1-2 inches for most of us.

The Sunday storm absolutely crushes the  I -81 corridor of PA. It does bring in some mixing at the height of the storm to York & Lancaster.

Here are the 3 Euro maps as the snow accumulates for all 3 events. The last map is the final total when all 3 events are done on Monday !

 

 

The 24 hour Kuchera snow map covering just the Sun Night-Mon storm had 6+ for pretty much the whole subforum save for maybe the extreme southern edge of Lancaster. JST/AOO/UNV/FIG/IPT/MDT/THV/probably LNS within an 8-12" zone. IPT and FIG riding the 8" line. It's a big hit for the subforum. Pittsburgh/SW PA 6-8" range.

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Looked outside everything pure white. some of the heaviest snow rates all season. I dont even have to look to the lights outside to see the snow. Radar at the moment is just derpy wrong looks like they are having radar problems tonight. took a whole area of snow and just shut it off from dark greens to nothing in minutes on accuweather. other radars show a full  snow in that area. I measured  just over 3 inchs all rdy pretty shocked.

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