Bubbler86 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 And FWIW, GFS for tonight keeps much of Lancaster sloppy but otherwise similar to other 12Z's in a 2-4" snow for similar areas as the others. Edit, really when looking at Pivotal it keeps much of the LSV sloppy. Focuses more on the MSV and NE. Far NW LSV does ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 If flying SW I would be a bit worried. Both because of the snow and their penchant to ground flights early and often. Bingo.SW grounds flights quickly, and that is what I’m flying....from BWI.During that 2017 March Storm, BWI had maybe and inch or two of slop and flights were cancelled.MDT had 20” of snow and I booked a flight same day from there on a different airline, and the flight left on time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: And FWIW, GFS for tonight keeps much of Lancaster sloppy but otherwise similar to other 12Z's in a 2-4" snow for similar areas as the others. Edit, really when looking at Pivotal it keeps much of the LSV sloppy. Focuses more on the MSV and NE. Far NW LSV does ok. Yeah, not so good down here. Kind of an understatement. Still, we did really well last night and I'm at about my seasonal average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 It’s only model that far NW. Even Euro much further SE with snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 GFS for Sunday storm is more a below the Mason-Dixon line thing as to WSW criteria stuff though maybe Lancaster would get a WSW If the Euro does not agree this gets thrown out in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Temps seem marginal for tonight/tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: GFS for Sunday storm is more a below the Mason-Dixon line thing as to WSW criteria stuff though maybe Lancaster would get a WSW If the Euro does not agree this gets thrown out in my book. I'm sorry, but if Quantico VA and Dover DE see 6"+ on Sunday I will be floored. I fully expect to be on the SE edge or even SE of the heaviest snow...I just don't see how I end up on the NW edge. Just don't see it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'm sorry, but if Quantico VA and Dover DE see 6"+ on Sunday I will be floored. I fully expect to be on the SE edge or even SE of the heaviest snow...I just don't see how I end up on the NW edge. Just don't see it happening. Here is the FV3 to make you feel better! This is Sunday storm only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 So there you have it...and old Fashioned EUS/Wright Weather/#neweather model PBP. Just less analysis and more model copying as there are so many more models now and I have to do some work. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 So there you have it...and old Fashioned EUS/Wright Weather/#neweather model PBP. Just less analysis and more model copying as there are so many more models now and I have to do some work. Lol. Good stuff!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 8 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: So there you have it...and old Fashioned EUS/Wright Weather/#neweather model PBP. Just less analysis and more model copying as there are so many more models now and I have to do some work. Lol. Thank you for all of that! Great stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Dear lord.....lol. @2001kx @pawatch don't bother looking at GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 34 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Thank you for all of that! Great stuff. LOL. I enjoy doing it when I have time. @daxx obviously holds back on the model worshiping a bit more than I do but I enjoy seeing them all and using them to make a decision on a forecast. They are wrong soooo often that one can never take them verbatim so I do not spend a lot of time looking at the soundings maps because it will change in 6 hours...I more look for trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 47 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'm sorry, but if Quantico VA and Dover DE see 6"+ on Sunday I will be floored. I fully expect to be on the SE edge or even SE of the heaviest snow...I just don't see how I end up on the NW edge. Just don't see it happening. Neither does the man who shall not be named...but who said this earlier this morning... "And, BTW, The 3rd storm in the series (Sunday PM-Monday AM) looks to drop 6 - 12" in the I-81 corridor, but (naturally) Lancaster is right in the "mix zone" making fine details of storm track critical for us. There may be a huge snow gradient across the county. Developing..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I missed Eric Horst becoming Voldemort. When did this go down? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Advisories out 2” to 3” of snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 PAZ034>036-056>059-063>066-020530- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0020.190302T0100Z-190302T1200Z/ Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon- Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 1218 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze are expected. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 The CMC, which did fairly well with last night...a bit over done...is 2-4 tonight, 8-12 Sun, and then another MECS next weekend that is more concentrated a bit east. This is for the LSV. Here is the final talley map just for fun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 This series of events has certainly been very poorly forecasted in the short and intermediate range. People say about the NAM being the NAM after like 24 hours but that was the only model that had last night's event in western and central PA outside of maybe the extreme southern tier prior to Wednesday. Now we have a half decent developing VA Beach/Delmarva low tonight before the Sun/Mon Delmarva low that has actually been forecasted. My worry about the main storm Sunday has been it creeping too far north, bringing more widespread issues turnpike and south or at the worse case.. I-80 and south. I think this.. bonus coastal probably takes that off the table. The only areas of concern I really have at the moment are the mixing zone which likely will reside near the M/D line and perhaps creep into York and Lancaster, and up north of I-80 having lighter snows in case the GFS is actually right for a change with it's more SE solution. Like I said yesterday, still think this storm is a faster hitting 5-10" type event for the heavy snow axis. There's no high to the north to A. help slow it down and B. Enhance anomalous easterly fetch. That would've probably turned it into a much more significant, say 12-18" type big hitter. Either way, it's going to be a good snowstorm where the best QPF sets up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: This series of events has certainly been very poorly forecasted in the short and intermediate range. People say about the NAM being the NAM after like 24 hours but that was the only model that had last night's event in western and central PA outside of maybe the extreme southern tier prior to Wednesday. Now we have a half decent developing VA Beach/Delmarva low tonight before the Sun/Mon Delmarva low that has actually been forecasted. My worry about the main storm Sunday has been it creeping too far north, bringing more widespread issues turnpike and south or at the worse case.. I-80 and south. I think this.. bonus coastal probably takes that off the table. The only areas of concern I really have at the moment are the mixing zone which likely will reside near the M/D line and perhaps creep into York and Lancaster, and up north of I-80 having lighter snows in case the GFS is actually right for a change with it's more SE solution. Like I said yesterday, still think this storm is a faster hitting 5-10" type event for the heavy snow axis. There's no high to the north to A. help slow it down and B. Enhance anomalous easterly fetch. That would've probably turned it into a much more significant, say 12-18" type big hitter. Either way, it's going to be a good snowstorm where the best QPF sets up. That coastal is why I have no expectations above couple inches or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 8 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: This series of events has certainly been very poorly forecasted in the short and intermediate range. People say about the NAM being the NAM after like 24 hours but that was the only model that had last night's event in western and central PA outside of maybe the extreme southern tier prior to Wednesday. Now we have a half decent developing VA Beach/Delmarva low tonight before the Sun/Mon Delmarva low that has actually been forecasted. My worry about the main storm Sunday has been it creeping too far north, bringing more widespread issues turnpike and south or at the worse case.. I-80 and south. I think this.. bonus coastal probably takes that off the table. The only areas of concern I really have at the moment are the mixing zone which likely will reside near the M/D line and perhaps creep into York and Lancaster, and up north of I-80 having lighter snows in case the GFS is actually right for a change with it's more SE solution. Like I said yesterday, still think this storm is a faster hitting 5-10" type event for the heavy snow axis. There's no high to the north to A. help slow it down and B. Enhance anomalous easterly fetch. That would've probably turned it into a much more significant, say 12-18" type big hitter. Either way, it's going to be a good snowstorm where the best QPF sets up. Keep talking dirty to me, please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: That coastal is why I have no expectations above couple inches or so. I think you and I are in the same boat on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 12 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: People say about the NAM being the NAM after like 24 hours but that was the only model that had last night's event in western and central PA outside of maybe the extreme southern tier prior to Wednesday. Favorite thing I have read all day. Somehow a not so correct rumor of the NAM being "out of range" has seeped itself into the main stream way of thinking and to me it is just a rule from some Weenie Handbook and if I had to guess it the book titled 'MA Thread's Answers when the NAM is not good to us'. The 84 hour NAM is wrong a lot but so is the 84 Hour Euro and most certainly the 84 hour GFS. The 84 hour NAM is a tool to use and watch for trends. The NAM certainly has a bias, qpf totals are usually too high, but being wrong at 84 hours is not one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 10 minutes ago, canderson said: Keep talking dirty to me, please. We already have @Atomixwx for that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Here is the Euro snow depth map from before and after tonights snow. Pick a random city...Lancaster goes from 2-4 to 6-8 so pretty healthy jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 Euro looks good for everyone outside of York and Lancaster from what i can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Euro looks good for everyone outside of York and Lancaster from what i can tell. I am guessing you mean Sunday? Looks good for Lancaster tonight. I would think for tonight that NWS's 2-3 is too low. I would go 2-4 or 3-5 in their shoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Euro looks good for everyone outside of York and Lancaster from what i can tell. Euro is giving me hope. We will see what caves to what here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: I am guessing you mean Sunday? Looks good for Lancaster tonight. I would think for tonight that NWS's 2-3 is too low. I would go 2-4 or 3-5 in their shoes. Yep, Sunday. I should have been specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Euro is giving me hope. We will see what caves to what here. You good folks are so due! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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