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OBS thread Feb 20-21, 2019

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Finally a true snow event even thought this isn't going to be a lot of snow and last long. Just need 1.9 inches to reach 10 inches for the winter.

Hopefully it happens

Moderate snow continues here in Brooklyn with everything covered now

Salt Trucks and plows are out

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32 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Finally a true snow event even thought this isn't going to be a lot of snow and last long. Just need 1.9 inches to reach 10 inches for the winter.

Hopefully it happens

Moderate snow continues here in Brooklyn with everything covered now

Salt Trucks and plows are out

People are saying the radar sucks and it’s almost over for us already. What do you think?

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2 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

HRRR just doesnt seem to line up with current radar which almost looks like everything is getting shunned offshore.. We shall see.

Every model has this turning north between 18z and 19z. I see no evidence of that right now though.

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Had 3/4" in Rahway when I went outside to go home around 12:30 pm and Ijust got home to Metuchen and we have 1.5" of snow OTG as of 1 pm. Snow has definitely decreased in intensity, but another band looks close, but might slide just to our south.  

After that, the NWS is expecting lighter precip for much of the afternoon, then an increase in intensity again. Question then will be how much snow do we get before the change to sleet (late afternoon here, likely) and then how much sleet and freezing rain we get before ~1/2" of plain rain falls later tonight for most locations, except well N/W.

Local roads are snow-covered and slippery and even Route 1 was slushy in many spots, so travel is not going to be easy this afternoon (unless the current lull lasts longer than expected). Hoping I make it to my 2.75" prediction for my house - NWS seems to think the 2-4" forecast for most will verify, as per the updated discussion below. 27F here.

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1238 PM EST Wed Feb 20 2019

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM: The morning round of enhanced frontogenesis lift is
winding down. Expect that we will see a period of relatively
light precipitation through the afternoon, before we have
another round of moderate to heavy precipitation this evening.

As for precipitation type, sleet is beginning to mix in in
southern Delaware. As warm air aloft continues to advect in, we
should see the line of a sleet mix move further north. Later
this afternoon, as the elevated warm layer becomes deeper and
the bottom of the layer gets closer to the surface, freezing
rain becomes more of a threat for areas that may still be below
freezing. For Delmarva and southeastern NJ, expect the change
over to wintry mix to continue for the next few hours, followed
by a change over to all rain mid afternoon. For much of the I95
corridor, the transition is expected to occur mid afternoon to
early evening (unfortunately not likely to see a change over to
all rain in these locations before the start of the evening
commute). The southern Poconos and NW NJ will be the last to see
the change over to all rain, which may not come until well
after midnight tonight.

Snow and ice amounts: With this update, adjusted snow amounts up
slightly primarily near the MD/PA/DE border which has been the
prime location for frontogenesis lift for the last few hours.
Now have storm total amounts of 4 to 6 inches; already 2 to 3
inches has fallen in some locations. No changes to the ice
amounts with this update. For much of the rest of the area, it
still looks like a general 2 to 4 inches. Areas south of here
will see amounts mostly in the 1 to 3 inch range. Additional
concern is freezing rain. A light glaze up to a few hundredths
of an inch of ice accretion is likely over the northern Delmarva
N/E along the I-95 corridor while upwards of one to two tenths
of an inch of ice is expected over portions of eastern PA from
western Chester County north through Berks County, the Lehigh
Valley into the southern Poconos.

Impacts: Regardless of the exact snow and ice amounts, we remain
very concerned that much of the region could be seeing the
greatest impacts coincident with the evening commute. The one
exception is much of the Delmarva and SE NJ which should see
the change over to all rain before this time. Even if the snow
and ice amounts are lower, the potential for ice on top of snow,
could result in very slippery conditions.

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22 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

People are saying the radar sucks and it’s almost over for us already. What do you think?

The gap is supposed to fill in. The snow should start to pick up again before changing over to sleet and rain.

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Snow arrived right on time between 12-1pm here in SW Suffolk. Came in moderate and has become lighter now. Coating on the ground.

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The HRRR has quite the extended period of sleet and freezing rain over much of the area starting around 23-00z.

Could be the worst icing out of the last three events. 

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