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ORH_wxman

Feb 18 overrunning threat

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19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Places like ORH and east slope of berks may do quite well after the intial WAA pulse...the flow turns easterly in that sfc to 900mb range and that is good for them. 

It’s a mini 2013 Morch firehose setup. All the hills do well in SNE and unfortunately it downslopes valleys, which is showing on all guidance 

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Also key: Southeast ridge has been improving steadily... as a result this system develops more northeast than east, and the Norlun vs. departing Miller B blend of impacts that Tip described shifts more to the latter

Unfortunately not much room or time to amplify once it exits NJ, but with current guidance I could see this reaching 4-6” in parts of SNE if ridge continues as is and shortwave holds until it reaches us...

Of course we are threading the needle and don’t want that shortwave too strong over IN/OH

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I could see back in the Walter Drag days of NWS tickering along the bottom of the Weather Channel ...circa 1992 .... a winter storm watch being issued over this... and the discussion that reads, " ...WITH OPT TO DOWNGRD WWA ON NEXT SHIFT/FUTURE RUN SUPPORT"

In this day and age it's going to be pulling teeth to go with an advisory, though, under the same circumstances.  

Not intending to impugn any agencies here, but it is funny how the culture's changed -

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I could see back in the Walter Drag days of NWS tickering along the bottom of the Weather Channel ...circa 1992 .... a winter storm watch being issued over this... and the discussion that reads, " ...WITH OPT TO DOWNGRD WWA ON NEXT SHIFT/FUTURE RUN SUPPORT"

In this day and age it's going to be pulling teeth to go with an advisory, though, under the same circumstances.  

Not intending to impugn any agencies here, but it is funny how the culture's changed -

Walt occasionally posts in the NYC forum.  A terrific forecaster who took the time to explain the various outcomes. 

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18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s a mini 2013 Morch firehose setup. All the hills do well in SNE and unfortunately it downslopes valleys, which is showing on all guidance 

lolwut?

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19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS with a nice run there.

Wait, what? Ive been so preoccupied with guineapigs needing vet care that I have no idea where this came from...am I going to get flakes, or is this rain for me?

How does it look for the franklin, bellingham, foxboro area?

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Maybe I'm seeing this wrong, but this doesn't strike me as a firehouse analog... easterly fetch at all levels looks pretty fleeting, and the event is prolonged by some IVT convergence in its wake

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Just now, wxsniss said:

Maybe I'm seeing this wrong, but this doesn't strike me as a firehouse analog... easterly fetch at all levels looks pretty fleeting, and the event is prolonged by some IVT convergence in its wake

Its nothing like that event.

Hey, the event last Tuesday was like the blizzard of '78 because winds went ne for a time at the surface.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its nothing like that event.

Hey, the event last Tuesday was like the blizzard of '78 because winds went ne for a time at the surface.

:lol:  

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4 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

Wait, what? Ive been so preoccupied with guineapigs needing vet care that I have no idea where this came from...am I going to get flakes, or is this rain for me?

How does it look for the franklin, bellingham, foxboro area?

See Box map. The guinea pigs are saved. Although, I would watch a little sleet taint possible.

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Pickles is going go down faster than he does on his GILFs, not that there is anything wrong with that

Nam ramps Euro Ramps interesting 

I’m praying so ....but very cautious. 

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The RGEM down here would be like 5 inches at LGA and nothing at JFK lol.  I’m not sure.  When does the RGEM NOT verify too amped at this range?  It’s fairly rare to not see whatever it shows at 40-48 tick south in the end 

It's been the season though to expect amped trends close in.  Can't remember many events that didn't tick up a bit.  Bodes well for central SNE.

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